Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

North Vancouver-Seymour

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:23:10

Constituency Profile



Charrois, Michael Rene

Johnson, Joshua

Thornthwaite, Jane Ann

Welwood, Clayton

North Vancouver-Seymour
Jane Thornthwaite

Population (2014):58120
Deviation from average:9.40%
Geographical Area:388 sq km
2013 Election Result
North Vancouver-Seymour
Jane Thornthwaite*
Jim Hanson
Daniel Scott Smith
Brian R Wilson
Jaime Alexandra Webbe
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
If you can make it to an all candidates meeting, I can tell you that local actor Michael Charrois will make the event worthwhile. His passion is energetic and his debate style is entertaining. In all likelihood, he will eat Jane alive. That being said, the more pensive Jim Hanson couldn't come even remotely close last time, and that was with Thornthwaite having just come off a minor drunk driving scandal. In fact the NDP haven't won this since 1972, so let's face facts: easy Thornthwaite win.
10/04/2017 South Islander
BCL have won a majority of the popular vote here every election since and including 1991. Interestingly 1991 and 2013 were the only elections during which the BCL barely did so with between 50-51%. In 1991, the collapsing SoCreds still scored 18%; in 2013, the Green, Conservative and Independent won a combined 16%. 2013 was the NDP's best ever performance here, when they finished with just under 1/3 of the vote in an election where they gained ground from the BCL throughout the Burrard Inlet (likely over Kinder Morgan). But the NDP will never close that gap here. If this district does not go BCL, it'll be because there is a complete mid-campaign realignment and the Greens relegate the BCL (or NDP) to third party status like the BCL did to the SoCreds in 1991. That could be in the cards for this election, but there aren't enough signs of that yet.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
The Liberals routinely win here with big margins, even during the NDP Government Days and that's not going to change this year, outside of NVL which is semi competitive.

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