Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

New Westminster

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:22:52

Constituency Profile



Brett, Lorraine

Brocki, Rex

Campbell, Jonina

Crosty, James

Darcy, Judy

New Westminster
Judy Darcy

Population (2014):61422
Deviation from average:15.60%
Geographical Area:14 sq km
2013 Election Result
New Westminster
Judy Darcy
Hector Bremner
Terry Douglas Teather
Paul Forseth
James Crosty
Lewis Clarke Dahlby
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


06/05/2017 keglerdave
South Islander should actually think before they speak... I've lived in New West since 2003, have worked on most of the civic, provincial and federal elections here in this time, and do know which of what I speak. Now I don't go opining about 'south island' ridings... so maybe this Green Jeans technicolour dreamer should play in their own sandbox. And yes I'm partisan and have never hid that, neither have anyone else hidden their partisanship when posting on here supporting one party or another.
04/05/2017 South Islander
Probably the best chance at a Green win in the Lower Mainland. keglerdave is obviously a solid NDP supporter upset about the strength of the Green candidate. Most voters don't care about the supposed 'betrayal' and take no notice of the ridiculous conspiracy innuendo that just makes the NDP look desperate. If anything, it probably costs them voters. The fact is that the Greens have a good shot in a district that the NDP held with less than 50% last time - enough that NDP supporters are clearly very nervous.
30/04/2017 keglerdave
For the NDP to lose New West it would take a monumental shift in votes to either the BC Liberals or Greens. From walking around the riding and looking around at signs per se.... I would say that the BC Libs are bleeding to the Greens while the NDP may have leaked a few there. The BC Liberal candidate was a last minute throw in... as in days before the writ was dropped.
The Green was an NDP supported backed school board trustee who turned her back on many of her supporters when her leader called NDP supporters 'morally and ethically bankrupt', and she didn't stand up for those who actually helped her get to where she got to. As well as chairperson of the New West school board she got waay too chummy with Mike Bernier, and suddenly in an election year the BC Liberal finally announced that they're opening up the bear trap of a wallet for a new high school in New West. Shortly after this announcement, the Green candidate announced she was running.
The only way the BCNDP is defeated in New West is with a split vote between them and the Greens. From my perspective, there appears to be more of a split between the BC Liberals and Greens than a bleed off of NDP support. So long as the BCNDP in New West does what it normally does best... turn out its vote, they'll win, by a slimmer margin at any time since they took the seat from the Liberals in 2005.
21/04/2017 Proud BCer
Although the Greens have nominated an excellent candidate in school board chair Jonina Campbell, I think the NDP will still pull of a victory in New Westminster, one of their traditional strongholds.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
This will be closer than many expect mainly due to extremely talented Green candidate who will steal votes from NDP. Greens could potentially win this one or split vote enough to elect BC Liberal.
17 01 18 political animal
I use to live in New Westminster it is traditionally NDP territory save for the near wipe out in 2001 should be an easy NDP hold
17 01 14 Jack Cox
This is near the Kinder Morgan Pipeline and Simon Fraser University is, and it?s a heavy NDP Area that except for the 2001 landslide has tended to vote for the more left leaning party.

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