Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

Prediction Changed
2017-04-29 09:55:40

Constituency Profile



Beare, Lisa Marie

Bing, Doug

O'Driscoll, Gary John

Pope, Alex

Ranta, Steve

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Dr. Doug Bing

Population (2014):58287
Deviation from average:9.70%
Geographical Area:1980 sq km
2013 Election Result
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Doug Bing
Elizabeth Joan Rosenau
Michael Lawrence Patterson
Manuel “Mike” Pratas
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


06/05/2017 Miles Lunn
This is a toss-up, not an NDP hold although I wouldn't be shocked if they pick it up. As you get further from the city proper, people are more likely to place economy and jobs as the most important priority thus favouring BC Liberals as opposed to affordability thus favouring the NDP. This is far enough out that it's questionable if it will swing towards the NDP or not thus it is a 50/50.
29/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
This is, in my opinion, the only riding that's winnable for the NDP in the Fraser Valley. The Greens aren't likely to play particularly well here, so they can consolidate the anti-Liberal vote better than most other swing ridings in the province. This one will go right down to the wire and right now chances are 50/50.
17 03 16 South Islander
BCL gain was a big surprise, but perhaps should not have been. Bing was a popular Pitt Meadows Councillor running for an open seat that was very marginally NDP in the past. He should get a slight incumbency boost, which will be crucial to build on his <3% margin and counteract the renewed NDP attention. NDP candidate is a Pitt Meadows school trustee with a low profile. Polls currently have the BCL down in Metro Vancouver with tons of undecideds. The BCLs will probably hold here if they can once again win the undecideds during the campaign, which I think they probably will. Let's call this compound probable a tossup.
17 02 01 Pundit79
The BCNDP has a strong candidate in Lisa Beare and I believe they will take this riding back.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
This is always a close race, I expect Horgan to target both these Maple Ridge ridings and I expect we won't have a prediction on the winner until the final week of the campaign.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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