Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Maple Ridge-Mission

Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 20:51:22

Constituency Profile



D'Eith, Bob

Dalton, Marc

Hamilton, Trevor

Monds, Jeff

Tam, Peter Pak Chiu

Maple Ridge-Mission
Marc Dalton

Population (2014):58697
Deviation from average:10.50%
Geographical Area:393 sq km
2013 Election Result
Maple Ridge-Mission
Marc H. J. Dalton*
Mike Bocking
Alex Pope
Chad Thompson
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


I agree that this riding will go NDP. The BC Liberal incumbent is too conservative for people within his own party.
Further, this riding has drastically changes with lots of new homeowners arriving from elsewhere and from closer in metro Vancouver areas. They tend to less socially conservative and the BCLP candidate is probably just too conservative for them.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Will be super close but if numbers hold in polls and BC Libs below 40% on election night then this will go NDP
17 03 16 South Islander
The closest NDP near-gain from 2009 looked like a sure gain in 2013 and was possibly even taken for granted. That won't happen again.
Marc Dalton might be a bit more of a liability this time. His socially conservative views were well known before, but now he has sought the Conservative nomination in Pitt Meadows?Maple Ridge, lost, and the Conservatives then lost the district federally, dropping from 55% to 31%. Mission?Matsqui?Fraser Canyon also went Liberal and saw a 20% drop in Conservative support. This revealed that Dalton: 1) wants another job, 2) is politically weak, and 3) is on the wrong side of the federal split that his provincial party just doesn't need.
There are incumbents in potentially more vulnerable districts, but they are all high priority Cabinet members (Oakes, Fassbender, Virk, Anton). Dalton still has never been in cabinet and is not likely to be promoted. Direct and public association with the federal Conservatives or Liberals is a liability to the BCLs and a career-limiting move for BCL MLAs.
Although the BCLs have a good chance at further gains, this one strikes me as the most likely one for them to lose. Not only will it be a top NDP target, but the incumbent is someone whom the BCLs are probably least inclined to protect.
17 03 12 Mr Prediction
Marc Dalton is a pretty polarizing figure in the riding. He's up against the NDP candidate from the federal election. If Horgan plays well in Maple Ridge and Mission + Dalton's unpopularity could produce an NDP win.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
This is always a close race, I expect Horgan to target both these Maple Ridge ridings and I expect we won't have a prediction on the winner until the final week of the campaign. Though this riding is a little more conservative then the Pitt Meadows Riding.

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