Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Delta North

Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 20:50:09

Constituency Profile



Hamilton, Scott

Kahlon, Ravi

Miller, Jacquie

Delta North
Wm. Scott Hamilton

Population (2014):55011
Deviation from average:3.60%
Geographical Area:32 sq km
2013 Election Result
Delta North
Scott Hamilton
Sylvia Bishop
Bill Marshall
Tinku Parmar
John Shrek Shavluk
George Gidora
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


10/04/2017 Brian A
If you're calling this riding for the Liberals, then you don't know Ravi Kahlon. Trust me, if the NDP can't pick up Delta North on May 9 then they are finished.
26/03/2017 Physastr Master
I'm from this riding, and it being called for the Libs right now is madness. It is an NDP-leaning swing riding (assuming equal support for the NDP and Libs) that was held comfortably by Guy Gentner for two terms until last election. Now with the NDP up 8 points in the lower mainland according to 308, it is hard to believe Hamilton holding on. Given last election, not believing polls is understandable, but when an NDP government is quite possible, Delta North will go NDP. Things may change before election day and the NDP could absolutely implode, but it should at least be TCTC for now, along with Penticton, North Van-Lonsdale, and a few other more marginal ones in Metro Vancouver.
19/03/2017 T.C.
Delta North is a marginal swing riding, which the BC Liberals surprisingly won by a narrow 1% margin in 2013. Right now it's one of those TCTC seats until the last week of the campaign IMHO.
17 03 14 Interested Voter
Incumbent Hamilton moved the dial last time by over 2000 votes to take this riding back. Commuter riding which is actually quite well to do, despite what other commenter mentioned. Hamilton has delivered substantially on transportation and traffic issues, as he promised in 2013. Scott Road hill, truck parking, 72nd street overpass and now Nordel Exchange and Alex Fraser zipper lane are all tangible results he can point to. Add to that a less well known NDP candidate and the absence of a Conservative this time, I predict BCL hold.
17 03 10 South Islander
This district was one of only three districts that went BCL in 1996 when the party lost but went NDP in 2005 when the BCLs won reelection (Cariboo North and Vancouver Little Mountain/Fairview are the others). In all of those cases, the incumbent BCL MLA retired and the NDP had found strong candidates - in this case, incumbent Reni Masi retired and the NDP recruited popular councilor Guy Gentner. The BCL government had also recently made a number of very unpopular decisions affecting Delta (hospital downgrade, perimeter road etc.), which in 2005 nearly cost them - and in 2009 ultimately cost them - the more-conservative Delta South district as well.
When Gentner retired in 2013, the BCL recruited their own popular councilor to win the open seat. It was a bit of a surprise at the time because the NDP were not expected to lose any seats (except maybe their byelection gain in Chilliwack-Hope). In retrospect though, an open seat that had gone BCL in 1996 should never have been considered safe.
The NDP will definitely make a play to take it back. But to beat a popular incumbent in a district that is a natural tossup at best, they will probably need to win the election comfortably. I don't think either will happen.
17 01 09 Brian J
Delta North is another must-win seat for John Horgan on his mission to defeat Christy Clark. It's relatively low-income, urban, and full of renters. The NDP almost won it in 2013, so they MUST win it in 2017 or it's all over for them.

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