Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Cowichan Valley

Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 11:09:43

Constituency Profile



Anderson, James Robert

Furstenau, Sonia

Haythornthwaite, Eden

Housser, Steve

Iannidinardo, Lori Lynn

Lockhart, Samuel

Morrison, Ian

Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley

Population (2014):59232
Deviation from average:11.50%
Geographical Area:1685 sq km
2013 Election Result
Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley*
Steve Housser
Kerry Davis
Damir Wallener
Heather Alanna Campbell
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


07/05/2017 Brendan
A new poll by the Times Colonist is showing Housser and Iannidinardo statistically tied (with Housser slightly ahead) but the Green Party candidate trailing by double digits. With 15% still undecided my guess is that the NDP will narrowly win this seat again.
I am sorry to disappoint all you Green fans but they are going to underperform just like in the Federal election.
Yes, Weaver is a good MLA but so is Elizabeth May.
The problem is the Party is disorganized and not ready to govern.
They can't even return phone calls and questionnaires from non environmental public policy groups.
They are a one track party and won't win this riding.
NDP hold.
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
With the NDP vote possibly split after in-fighting, and a passionate citizenry after the Shawnigan Lake water saga, this should be one of two additional ridings (along with Saanich North and the Islands) to fall to the Greens.
06/05/2017 Mark the Lark
With a four-way split and the anti-Liberal vote solidifying around the Green candidate (popular local elected politician) who is seen as a bit of a hero for fighting an issue that brought so many people together, word is this is her seat to lose.
The NDP core voters are split between a well-known former NDP riding association president who is running as an independent because he was banned from being the candidate due to the NDP's policy of only allowing minority groups and women to run for the nomination and the official NDP candidate who is replacing the current NDP MLA as the flag waver due to his retiring from public office.
The alternative is a BC Liberal win, but looking at the Green votes from last election, it only takes a small shift from the warring NDP factions to block the other and prevent a Liberal win to make this the third Green seat.
Greens to lose.
05/05/2017 BC Voter
I am more and more certain that this riding is going Green. No incumbent, and split between NDP candidates and a strong Green candidate with a strong following. I will be surprised if this doesn't go Green on Tuesday.
02/05/2017 political fox
update that mainstreet research poll now shows the Green Party growing and getting stronger with 67% saying they
will not change their vote almost as strong as the NDP and Liberals and when including the decided and leaning they top the NDP on the Island. Yet other polls paint a different picture and only one poll counts: the ballot box.
Green Leader seems to be gaining popularity on the Southern Island and the Green recently placed a multiple page ad in the Times Colonist feature the 8 Southern Island candidate.
It all depends on how many people in this riding get off the coach and vote. This could be a close race between the Greens and NDP too close to call
29/04/2017 hay sting
This has not, in recent elections been as large an NDP majority as other south island ridings. The pre-election goings on among the NDP hopefuls here is well documented. This all adds up to a very close race-- possibly the 'Saanich North-Islands' of this election. With the Green Party apparently surging in polls (though with small sample sizes!) on the island, that could be enough to give it to them. By a hair.
25/04/2017 Long Term Resident
I've spoken to many people in the riding who've never voted Green before, but will be in this election because they're really impressed with Sonia as a candidate. At least one Cowichan-area blogger (which I didn't even know was a thing before this election) has endorsed Sonia as well. She's certainly fighting an aggressive sign war, and the polls of voting intention on Vancouver Island are all headed in the right direction for her. Strong candidates don't always make a huge difference, but in this riding it seems to be. This riding having no incumbent is the difference-maker here. I think she's third-likeliest to win for the Greens after Andrew Weaver and Adam Olsen.
18/04/2017 political fox
if the latest Mainstreet poll and the recent polling trend is any indication I predict the NDP candidate holding this riding for her party. The liberal support on the Island is sinking to the advantage of the Greens but the green support is the softest and their soft supports are more likely to switch to the NDP to keep the liberals out than vice versa.
15/04/2017 South Islander
The way things stand now, I actually have to think that Furstenau will pick up this riding. The Greens are competing for first place on the Island, and this was one of their better results in 2013 when they finished 3rd on the island 44/34/17. Even with an incumbent, the NDP won only 40% last time. This time, the seat is open and there will be a vote split between former NDP EDA president Morrison running as an independent and the NDP candidate Iannidinardo. The NDP actually appear to be the least likely winners here of the major parties. The BCLs see an opportunity given their solid finish, but they are ultimately trying to maximize turnout among their supporters rather than competing for support. Furstenau is well known among locals, especially Shawnigan Lake area, residents as a local director and environmental activist. The Greens will devote resources here to overtake their divided NDP opponents. If they can maintain or build on their Island support, they win here; if they bleed support, the BCLs win; if they collapse completely, the NDP may have a shot.
17 03 12 North Islander
A very strong candidate with great name recognition, plus infighting within the NDP which has led to a rejected candidate running as an independent will all be contributing factors in a BC Liberal win in the Valley! A solid green candidate doesn't help the NDP much either!
17 03 09 South Islander
The NDP held this with barely 40% in 2013 despite having an incumbent. They also only held Cowichan?Malahat?Langford during the federal election with 36%, down from 44% (redistributed) in 2011. With the NDP having no incumbent and campaign problems, the BCL renominating their candidate who came relatively close in 2013, and the Greens surging on the South Island, this seat is up for grabs.
17 02 05 Island Resident
The Greens have a popular respected candidate in Sonia, with no incumbent, the Greens may have the edge, although it will be close with the NDP. The Liberals will do poorly in the riding considering the Shawnigan dump and the Saanich Inlet LNG.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
The NDP CA president Ian Morrison has resigned his position and is planning on running as an independent

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