Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-04-30 10:59:12

Constituency Profile



Kim, Steve

Robinson, Selina Mae

Spurling, Nicola Eyton

Velay-Vitow, Jesse

Selina Robinson

Population (2014):58351
Deviation from average:9.80%
Geographical Area:30 sq km
2013 Election Result
Selina Mae Robinson
Steve Kim
Edward Andreas Stanbrough
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


06/05/2017 Miles Lunn
I wouldn't call this quite yet. The NDP won by only 40 votes last time and with the slight riding boundary changes the BC Liberals actually would have narrowly taken this one. Now I agree the NDP has a good chance at taking this, but lets remember polls show the parties very close province wide and although the BC Liberals have done better outside the Lower Mainland than within there does seem to be a division between the city and inner suburbs vs. outer suburbs later heavily favouring BC Liberals and former favouring NDP so this will come down to the wire and will probably be one of the last ridings called on election night whichever way it goes.
04/05/2017 Laurence Putnam
This will be close. But you can't shake the feeling that, as a rematch, while the NDP has gained the advantage of incumbency, that the Liberal candidate comes off looking like a sore loser. That might not be a fair assumption, but its just a feeling. While a surprise is possible, and another recount even likely, I don't see ultimately what the case would be for the Liberals in this riding.
It's probably time to put this one in the NDP category. It's become evident the BC NDP campaign of 2017 is doing much better than 2013. If there's even half truth to the latest polling then this riding, which typically goes NDP, will result in re-election for Robinson.
24/04/2017 Brendan
This district has gone for the NDP every year since it's creation (with the exception of the blowout of 2001). With the incumbency advantage that Selena Robinson has, and the fact that Steve Kim (the Liberal candidate) just barely lost to her last election, my guess is that she holds this riding by around 3 points.
17 03 10 South Islander
I feel bullish about the BCL's chances in this election because the Premier is such a strong campaigner while Horgan strikes me as flat-footed, the BCL have a huge cash advantage, the economy is in decent shape (if fragile) and the budget is balanced (even if services are underfunded), the NDP are only starting in the 30s, and there are still many undecided voters. I think the BCL are more likely to make gains than the NDP, but I'm not sure where. Last election, they lost ground on the South Island and North of the Fraser, but gained elsewhere for essentially a tiny overall gain.
This seat was the closest in 2013 and Selina Robinson is now the incumbent. But this district has always been close - Diane Thorne only improved her reelection margin to 3% in 2009 from her 2% election margin in 2005. If the BCL do well and target North of the Fraser, I think they will take this by a small margin. Otherwise, the NDP will probably hold by a tiny margin again.
17 01 30 Pundit79
I believe Selina Robinson will be re-elected with with a slightly higher margin in this riding which has gone BCNDP the last three elections.
17 01 20 Jack Cox
Honestly, I'm not offering an opinion on this race as of yet. This was such a close race that it was initially called for Steve Kim before a recount gave the riding to Selina Robinson. I think we'd need to see the campaign play out, but it's a must-hold for the NDP.

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