Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 16:53:56

Constituency Profile



Chen, Katrina

Darling, Steve

Gung, Sylvia

Keithley, Joe

Murarka, Neeraj

Dr. Jane Jae Kyung Shin

Population (2014):59797
Deviation from average:12.60%
Geographical Area:37 sq km
2013 Election Result
Jane Shin
Ken Kramer
Darwin Augustus Ivan Burns
Christine N Clarke
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 ActualBurnabyLougheedResident
Steve Darling may have name recognition, but he doesn't live anywhere near the riding and is an obvious parachute candidate. He hasn't been very visible this campaign except for online advertising, and it's clear he doesn't even know where his party stands on the issues based on what he's saying regarding standing up for renters, or protecting the environment. If you look at any ads of his on Facebook, it's almost entirely angry comments and reactions.
This riding is a riding that both parties have been taking for granted, and there's sadly no strong candidates, but it's clear that Katrina Chen is winning the sign war. The only Darling sign that I've seen so far is located near the oil refinery. I think the anger over the Kinder Morgan pipeline, which terminates in this riding, and the fact that Darling has been completely invisible will give the NDP an edge in this riding. If Jane Shin, who was obviously a far less strong candidate for the NDP could pick this up in 2013, I think this will be an NDP hold.
28/04/2017 Burnaby Joe
Way too early to predict this one for the NDP. Steve Darling's name recognition and likability will push him passed the finish line in this tight race.
21/04/2017 The Tyee
The Tyee: Could Kinder Morgan Cost the BC Liberals Four Seats?
21/04/2017 Proud BCer
I'm predicting a narrow gain here for the BC Liberals. The NDP incumbent has stepped down, and the party has nominated Katrina Chen, a local school trustee. Meanwhile, the BC Liberals have nominated a star candidate, former Global TV anchor Steve Darling. This was already a swing-seat to begin with, but Darling's star power should allow this to fall into the BCL column, whether the party wins province-wide or not.
20/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
I'm sorry but I had to laugh at the previous posters description of the NDP candidate as a 'popular school trustee'. I would be shocked if any more than 1/10 people in any school district in the country could name any of their local school trustees never mind revere one in particular as 'popular'. Perhaps Trustee Chen does some fine work on the school district, I have no idea, but having spent a lifetime of watching star candidates go down to defeat, I would be extremely sceptical of any trustee's popularity on the school board carrying them all the way to Victoria. Since 2001, this riding has gone Liberal 3/4 times, and with Steve Darling running for an open seat, I think he will probably have the edge. But it will be close. (Yes I realize the irony of mentioning Darling given my earlier comment about defeated star candidates, but I don't think his 'stardom' is the primary driver of his electoral chances.
03/04/2017 JayC
With local popular school trustee Katrina Chen on the ballot I don't think this riding going anywhere.
2 years ago, 2014 Burnaby civic election she receive 23116 votes, the third high vote was elected.
Katrina Chen very deeply connected with local resident, there are more then 250 people show up to support her campaign office opening, this shows how much people respect her hard work in the community.
Other hand Liberal Mr. Darling I think it's just a show on the table, with all the issue happen in Burnaby right now not a chance.
17 03 12 South Islander
The NDP will certainly try to hold this district, but they have a lot of territory to defend in Burnaby and only one of their 3 incumbents is seeking reelection. BCLs have nominated a high-profile candidate and seem to be working hard to take this one back. T.C.'s analysis is spot on, but it's for those reasons that I think this once-again-open district is still a tossup rather than an NDP hold.
17 01 18 T.C.
Akin to Burnaby North, the BC Libs have held Burnaby-Lougheed since 2001 - albeit marginally. In 2013, the BC Liberal incumbent in B-L stepped down and was replaced by someone without much profile.
The BC NDP woon B-L in 2013, for the first time since 1996, and that was with a small drop in popular vote share over 2009 - with the ?Kinder Morgan Surprise? already built-in.
More significantly, the BC Conservatives ran a candidate here for the first time in 2013. Due to internal late filing problems with Elections BC, the candidate was listed as an independent. The candidate's name was Christine Clarke, which closely resembled Christy Clark's name. Clarke received 6.9% here in 2013, which likely came at the expense of the 2009 BC Liberal vote. Had Clarke not been on the ballot, the BC Liberals likely would have retained this seat in 2013.
Now the BC NDP incumbent Jane Shin has stepped down after her first term leaving the seat open. The BC NDP have nominated Katrina Chen, a Burnaby school board trustee, here. More interesting, is the fact that the BC Liberals have nominated high profile, 18-year former Global BC morning news anchor Steve Darling.
Moreover, the rejuvenated BC Greens, under Andrew Weaver, have selected D.O.A. band lead Joe Keithley in this riding. Also highly doubtful that the leaderless, and insolvent BCCP will be running many (if any) candidates in 2017.
Reading the tea leaves here, the BC Liberals will likely regain this seat i 2017.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
This is where the Kinder Morgan Pipeline is located and where Simon Fraser University is, and while this tends to be a more Liberal Friendly area in the past, I just cannot see them winning this riding when this issue looms large.

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