Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Vancouver East

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:45:49

Constituency Profile


Jamieson, Anne

Kwan, Jenny

Low, James

Marcus, Peter

Millar, D. Alex

Regan, Wes

Vulliez, Shawn

Wong, Edward

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3180.72%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Vancouver East
   (194/194 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Libby Davies


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 14 poljunkiebc
Certainly an easy NDP call. The interesting thing to watch here will be the %'s. To state Kwan is an enormously popular MLA belies the fact that the federal riding is much more than just her previous provincial NDP bedrock. Also, the Greens are likely to experience an uptick here and, though one can only put so much stock on lawn signs, they have a lot in some areas that used to have a lot of orange. And the Liberal surge will play out here too. So, again, certainly the NDP will win Van East, but not by as much as some may be anticipating. Kwan will probably garner in the 50% range.
15 09 20 Milo
The sheer volume of orange signs in this riding is staggering. A New Democrat riding through and through, and with popular well known local provincial politician Jenny Kwan running- (A sometimes BC NDP leadership hopeful, often belligerent BC NDP firebrand who questioned the provincial party leadership leading to Carole James resignation and subsequent disastrous choice of Adrian Dix as leader) this riding is one of the Top 10 safest ridings to predict in all of Canada.
15 09 14 A.S.
Though the contrarian in me wonders whether Justin's leftward tack plus touches of condo-or-not gentrification might actually lead to the NDP ceding surprising ground to the Liberals. But certainly not to the degree of Anna Terrana Revisited.
15 08 24 BC predictor
Not joking, the NDP could hit 75% in this riding.
15 08 12 Sykes
This riding voted almost 63% NDP last time out and now NDP numbers are up across British Columbia. And while the NDP lost a long-time incumbent with the retirement of Libby Davies, Jenny Kwan's nomination makes it highly unlikely that the door is open for an upset. Very easy NDP hold.
15 08 08 Laurence Putnam
As 'NDP' a riding as there ever was.
15 04 21 Seth
NDP landslide. Not only is this the safest NDP seat in Canada, this is Jenny Kwan's provincial riding. She was one of only two BCNDP MLAs to keep their seats during the near total BCNDP annihilation in 2001.
15 03 29 Stevo
Safest NDP seat in the county, Libby or no Libby.
15 03 29 monkey
This is one of the safest NDP ridings in all of Canada so even with Libby Davies retiring the party would need to be in the single digits nationally to be in any danger. In fact even during the 2001 meltdown provincially, the two NDP riding were located inside this one and in fact one of their MLAs Jenny Kwan is the NDP candidate.
15 03 21 Brian A
The NDP candidate is an incredibly popular BCNDP MLA. She has name recognition and is known for being active in the community. If that's not enough, this riding is easily the NDP's safest in Canada. It would take a total collapse of the NDP vote in BC for this seat to have even a chance of being lost by them and that isn't going to happen. NDP Lock!
Editor's Note: At the time of this posting, NDP has yet determine which of the two BCNDP MLAs would be nominated. The nomination vote will take place on Sunday, March 22, 2015. We opted to allow this posting to stand as it is generic enough to be applicable in either scenario.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Obvious NDP hold. No amount of machinations are going to dislodge NDP here. NDP supporters will not be swapping out for a better shot elsewhere though a few might decide this seat is safe and offer to swap in a Green vote, it's hard to imagine the Green they would swap with believing this a Green pickup.
There's just no play here. NDP hold on the numbers.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster