Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:17:40

Constituency Profile


Dhaliwal, Sukh

Sangha, Pamela

Sims, Jinny

Singh, Harpreet

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1990.61%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Newton-North Delta
   (94/147 polls, 67.09% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jinny Jogindera Sims

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (44/147 polls, 27.04% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nina Grewal

   Surrey North
   (9/147 polls, 5.87% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jasbir Sandhu


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15 10 01 Dave B,
Considering that Sukh only lost narrowly last time when the Liberals were decimated across Canada and also considering that the Liberals are ahead of the NDP in ALL recent polls (with the NDP continually dropping lower and lower), this riding will go Liberal.
15 09 14 Charles
Suhk Dhaliwal can pull the entire Indo-Canadian community in and get them to show up to vote. He has massive organizational power which was seen during the Liberal nomination - he swamped even his fairly well connected Indo-Canadian opponent with thousands of new members.
He can win the riding handily.
15 09 14 A.S.
'94% chance' Liberal projections here have to *really* be taken with a grain of salt. Sukh Dhaliwal's base might have been remarkably resilient in 2008/11, but it's also remarkably inert--founded almost totally upon a particular ethnic bloc--and who knows how much his legal issues or Sims' incumbency have shaved away that hitherto 'guaranteed' third of a vote, or how much more the maybe-recovered-maybe-not 'Justin factor' in BC can sprinkle on top. It's like what was an asset for Sukh in the past could well be a liability now--particularly if the populist-end Con vote's more prone to shifting to the NDP and the more benign Indo-ethnicity of Sims...
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
With recent polls showing the NDP leveling off in BC and the Liberals going up, 308 now shows Surrey-Newton as leaning Liberal with a 94% chance of a win. (September 6, 2015)
That's a pretty high chance of Liberal success, although it's hard to know for sure how to predict this race.
NDP are stronger than the Liberals in British Columbia, but the Liberals did manage to win this riding under DHALIWAL in the past, even when they weren't doing very well, and he only lost it by a few points in the 2011 Ignatieff collapse in B.C.
So while Jinny Sins is an incumbent, DHALIWAL has shown that he has previous strength in this riding, and may be able to win under the current numbers.
One to watch further in the weeks ahead.
15 08 25 Jeff S
Insights West poll out today has NDP at 41% in BC, with the Conservatives falling behind the Liberals. With those numbers, they should take at least 25 of the 42 ridings, including this one.
15 08 22 Docere
This really looks like a pretty obvious call for the NDP. The NDP are up significantly in BC and Jinny Sims is a pretty high profile MP who now has the advantage of incumbency. Surrey-Newton looks like an example of taking the projection models too literally.
15 08 24 BC predictor
The CPC candidate is a minor celebrity among the indocanadian community here and I see their vote bucking the provincial trend and actually increasing here. If i'm correct and factoring in Suhks legal trouble I see Harpreet taking mostly liberal voters to the benefit of the NDP. NDP win with a possible 2nd place CPC finish
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Despite the Liberal candidate's legal issues, the Liberals are still leading the pack in this riding with a 75% win confidence, according to the polls. However, the NDP is rising in the BC polls and they do have a good MP here who will get an incumbency bump. Right now I'll say that this is leaning Liberal and we'll have to wait and see how the NDP lead in BC impacts the race here.
15 08 07 Brandon
After watching the Macleans Debate last night, I am leaning towards the Liberals. Combine that with the fact that Sukh Dhaliwal lost by 900 votes or so at a time when Ignatief and the Liberals were decimated,I give this to the Liberals.
15 08 01 PHYSASTR Master
This is a weird riding, in that it frequently works in reverse of national trends, going conservative up until Harper won government, and then going liberal, peaking when Dion was at the Liberal helm. Having worked on the ground in this riding since I was very young (that is, the old Newton-North Delta)I know that the Sikh vote here is key, and generally speaking the party with the most support from the Sikh temples wins. This is why the NDP dropped 6% when trying to unseat the weakening Liberals under Dion, their candidate had no support from the Sikh community. With the Liberal candidate facing criminal charges, I can see him losing many of his endorsements within the Sikh community. Even worse for the Liberals, if Sukh steps down as Liberal candidate, the work he has done to gain support in Newton's ethnic communities will be erased, which would likely make this an NDP runaway. Jinny should at least hold to her previous levels in Newton, if not increase them. Under any of these scenarios, the Liberals drop well below 2011 levels. Although I still think the stronger Liberals will keep this close (as usual) I'm calling this an NDP hold.
15 07 24 Expat
After Charleswood-St. James and Dartmouth, this is the 3rd of the only 3 projections I found premature or unlikely from the major site update of otherwise excellent calls.
I waited longer to post on this one to see if the polling would bear it out, and it has. The current BC polling averages have the NDP at 40.5 compared to Liberals at 22.9. It's not to say that this specific riding is not competitive, but making a Liberal gain against an NDP incumbent with those regional numbers at a 2-1 disadvantage is dramatic. I feel like the NDP will ultimately retain all their BC incumbents now (and gain many others as this site predicts), but for the moment this does seem like it *could* be TCTC as opposed to an outright NDP hold.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
The fact Jinny Sims is both a high profile NDPer and well liked MP should help her hold the seat. She is a likely cabinet choice if the NDP win government. Although polls say this seat may go Liberal, she has been more active than former Liberal MP and current Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal.
15 04 30 Gillian
The Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal was charged with six counts of tax evasion. Jinny Sims is a very popular MP and she is very visible in the riding, in the Indo-Canadian community and on B.C. media. Easy NDP hold.
15 04 20 Rob
I live in this riding for 25 years. Considering Sukh only lost by 900 (difference of 450 going the other way) votes the last election at a time when they were nearly wiped off the face of the map, I give this riding to the Liberals this time around. Lets just say that they cannot get any worse than last time. Considering the upswing of the Liberal party of Canada, especially under Justin Trudeau, this is definitely going Liberal.
15 04 05 Brian A
This riding is going to be a target for both Tom and Justin, as we have a relatively congenial NDP incumbent, and a strong Liberal challenger that also happens to be the former MP. Plus this riding was sliced and diced by redistribution. Jinny isn't what you would call a powerful speaker, or a frontbench performer, or even an MVP in the NDP caucus, but she tries hard and is VERY active on social media. Dhaliwal is no slouch and will be campaigning heavily to win back his former seat. With the NDP rising in the polls, the real winner here will be determined by how much the CPC candidate will split the vote. Will Harper's candidate steal more votes from Jinny or Sukh? I'm still betting on Jinny Sims, with the incumbent advantage, to win this squeaker.
15 03 29 monkey
Tough call as this riding has a large Indo-Canadian community who don't always follow the national trends. Definitely won't go Conservative but too close to call between the NDP and Liberals.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
It will be a great day when Jinny Sims is removed from Parliament. Stronger Liberals, weaker NDP, mean this is going red.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
Can't call this one. Generally in coastal BC there will be a precipitous collapse in Conservative vote due to their astonishing abuses in majority, notably their withdrawal of water protections and starting pipeline fights with First Peoples and coastal communities that clearly don't want them. Plus spying on half of BC and labelling it a 'security threat'. Those lost Conservative votes should shift Liberal especially with a popular leader and should make this a Liberal win.
However, the NDP and Greens have been far more consistent champions of the coast, and for that reason, this race remains too close to call. Those that are concerned about the rising confrontations in BC must also be concerned about Trudeau talking out of both sides of his mouth re other pipelines. Also, in BC, the BC Liberals are a fused formation of federal Liberals and Conservative and accordingly the Liberal brand simply does not mean 'not Conservative' like NDP does.
It looks like a three way race here but I'd call it Liberal vs. NDP really.
15 03 21 BJ
Even with the Liberal popular vote share collapse in BC during the 2011 federal election, the Liberal vote in this redistributed riding remained strong losing by just over 1% in 2011.
Since then, the fed Liberal vote in BC has rebounded. Additionally, the Liberal nomination in this riding likely saw the largest turnout in Canada for 2015. 6,782 voted in the Liberal nomination. With the large Indo-Canadian population in this riding tending Liberal federally, should be a safe Liberal seat in 2015 outside the City of Vancouver - where the federal Liberal base resides.
15 03 18 Fairview Resident
Sukh Dhaliwal lost in Newton-North Delta during the 2011 meltdown by a narrow 903 vote margin. Amazingly, the Liberals do better in the new Surrey Newton riding, losing by a narrower margin of 388, even though they weren't contenders in the other 2 ridings that also form part of Surrey Newton (Surrey North and Fleetwood-Port Kells).
How is this is even possible: Newton sheds some of the weaker areas for the Liberals (North Delta and south of Highway 10), keeping a chunk of NND that they won by over 1,600 votes. It also picks up a portion of North that the Liberals nearly won in 2011 (despite coming a distant third in the riding overall). The NDP only maintains the lead in the redistributed Newton results because they did well in the portion of FPK that joins Newton (East of King George, West of 144), in which they doubled the Liberals but still trailed the Tories. With a competitive candidate, the Liberals would have fared much better in this area.
Jinny Sims likely won't enjoy a significant incumbency advantage over Sukh Dhaliwal. He represented most of the new Newton riding for 2 terms, she for one term. Both candidates were fairly well known both inside and outside NND in 2011, as Jinny Sims had been highly visible as BCTF president.
If the Liberals do better than they did in 2011, they should be able to win this riding. They won 13.4% in 2011. Current polling has them consistently around 27-35%, and has not had them below 20% for a long time. The NDP won 32.5% in 2011, but are around 20-27% now and haven't polled above 30% for a long time. This riding was very close when the NDP enjoyed a 19 point lead over the Liberals in the province, but they have now been consistently behind for some time. Unless this changes, Sukh Dhaliwal easily wins.

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