Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Steveston-Richmond East


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:20:41
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chiu, Kenny

Peschisolido, Joe

Shaw, Laura-Leah

Stewart, Scott

Swanston, Matthew


Population/populations
(2011 census)

96610


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1822453.92%
771422.82%
628718.60%
13994.14%
Other 1770.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Delta-Richmond East
   (117/165 polls, 67.04% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Kerry-Lynne D. Findlay
12903
6057
4650
1065
Other177


   Richmond
   (48/165 polls, 32.96% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Alice Wong
5321
1657
1637
334



 


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15 10 18 DSR
213.104.176.154
Just to endorse what South Islander says. If Richmond Centre is going Liberal so is this riding.
15 10 15 South Islander
75.157.24.92
Surprised by the call - especially given the Liberal call in Centre. Liberals have a better shot here than in Centre based on name recognition and past voting patterns. Given their surge in support, they should take this one.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
173.212.125.141
Likely to further push this Liberal, there's a well-publicized live vote swap meet in Vancouver Thursday (Thornton Park, 5:30PM) so that Greens living here have the opportunity to swap for a more useful vote in a nearby riding, and NDP here have the opportunity to pitch an NDP vote to Granville, Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, Port Coquitlam voters who really prefer to see all Cons gone. Vancouver could flush all Cons into the Pacific, in fact the BC coast could be free of them entirely, with only a few thousand swappers.
Any Liberal that wants the federal Liberals to take over the moderate right wing and flush the old Reform/Alliance/Conservative party into the toilet for good, should go for any swap that bans all Cons from the coast. It turns the federal Liberals into the BC Liberal Party, esp if the Harper Cons are also banned from the Atlantic and the Arctic coasts.
This is a very strategic riding and Liberals should focus on it, and basically swap out to get Liberal supporters in places like Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam (going NDP) and Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge (going NDP) to push the Cons as far as possible off the Pacific coasta. And thus their party into a major collapse or xenophobic crumple into irrelevance.
And leaving federal politics in coastal and near coastal BC looking just like provincial politics in BC. Much simpler for everyone. ;-)
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
24.85.198.4
More likely to go Liberal than the other Richmond riding, which should also but by a narrow margin. It won't be a huge margin, but the surge should be enough to allow an LPC sweep of Richmond.
15 09 09 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a new riding that includes parts of old Richmond and Delta Richmond East ridings both of which were previously cpc. Since this riding hasn't existed before in its current form its tough to get a feel for. I also wasn't aware that former liberal mp Joe Peschisolido was attempting a comeback here. But don't think that changes overall race much . Kenny Chiu is the new conservative candidate and new to federal politics. ndp also have a new candidate Scott Stewart . there has also been a lot of polls for bc coming out and tough to figure out this province as some show big ndp lead and others like yesterdays ipsos numbers 37 ndp , 31 lib and 28 cpc show a close race in bc. So still a lot of campaign left here in this too close to call riding
15 09 05 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Funny with the thus-far non-acknowledgment of the Liberal nomination controversy here, which *does* tilt things in the Con direction--or at least, a CPC defeat here will reflect more of a generic province-wide trend than a riding-specific thing...
15 08 24 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
The NDP have little to no organisation in richmond/south delta so these 3 seats aren't in play for them. The liberals would be competitive in the seats if they were in Majority territory but alas they are not. CPC win
15 08 07 Richmondite
216.232.211.49
This newly-established riding should be a nail-biter. The area has traditionally been leaning towards the right, however the CPC wouldn't have the downright advantage this time based on regional decline of support in BC. This gives a reasonable chance for the NDP or LPC to contend for the seat. CPC candidate Kenny Chiu is a recognizable figure in the Chinese community. The NDP is also running Scott Stewart, who has challenged for the provincial Steveston seat previously in 2013. No candidates for the Liberals yet, which is odd given their lead in percentages on 308.com.
Should be a close three-way race, provided that the NDP has picked up great momentum from surging BC polls, along with the traditional centre-right votes.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
24.139.3.217
The Liberals have the edge due to the regional polling numbers. TCTC is probably the right call for now, but I will not be surprised to see a Liberal pick up here.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
74.14.179.73
I am reiterating my call that the CPC prediction is premature. The polling numbers are still indicating that the Liberals are in good shape to win this riding. TCTC.
15 07 06 Poll reviewer
76.71.253.254
308.com has this riding at 63% for the Liberals as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
70.50.94.209
I feel the CPC call is a bit premature. I think this will be a competitive race, especially if the CPC are coming off as hard right and the Liberals rebuild their connection with the BC Chinese community.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
Will likely stay Conservative, but the reason I won't call this is not too long ago it went Liberal and no doubt the Liberals will make strong efforts to try and win back the Chinese community. The Chinese community is generally centre-right, not hard right which is why they go solidly BC Liberal provincially but never backed the Reform/Alliance as they were seen as too extreme.
15 03 26 JJ
50.67.15.0
Traditionally, a centre-right, conservative-minded area. Voting patterns and mentality similar to what I wrote for Richmond Centre. CPC have nominated a former School Board Trustee who has name recognition. With a landslide margin, I think this will stay CPC.



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