Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

South Surrey-White Rock

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:17:16

Constituency Profile


Colero, Larry

Higginbotham, Judy

Hobby, Pixie

Hu, Bonnie

Marlatt, Brian

Watts, Dianne Lynn

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 13432.97%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (183/194 polls, 95.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Russ Hiebert

   Newton-North Delta
   (9/194 polls, 3.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jinny Jogindera Sims

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (2/194 polls, 0.77% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nina Grewal


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15 10 18 CH
Time to make predictions in the remaining TCTC ridings. I'm calling this one Liberal given the math and the momentum are currently leaning their way. While conceivably the Conservatives could win this, it's very unlikely and the day before the election little can change.
15 10 17 South Islander
This was supposed to be a Tory cakewalk. They had an immensely popular former mayor as their candidate in a riding that has voted Conservative for years. The Liberals had a low profile candidate. Then, the Liberal candidate had to resign and was replaced by a well-known, well-liked former councillor. Watts appeared on that disgusting flyer that received national negative attention. JH came within 6% of winning the old riding in 2004 when the Tories took BC over the Liberals by 7.7%. The new district is slightly more Liberal (~2%) and less Conservative (~2%), and aggregate polling has the Liberals ahead in BC by 1% with momentum. Diane Watts blew a likely win with the help of the Liberals who blew a likely defeat.
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
This is still too close to make a prediction. It would seem inconceivable that the CPC could lose this riding, despite the Liberal surge. It has been held by Reform/Alliance/CPC for decades and by solid majorities.
On the other hand, high levels of success at one level of government does not translate into success at other levels. Ask mayors who've run provincially or provincial MLAs who've run and lost federally. It could be there is a sort of Watts-fatigue at play here. Her campaign ads have raised eyebrows, and I haven't studied the mayoral results poll by poll to see if this area was her strongest or if she did better elsewhere. TCTC
15 10 11 Adeline96
Well, the Liberals have found a candidate since I last posted, but not too sure if I can say she's a star. Higginbotham was a City Councillor for multiple terms, but she does have a history of losing 7 times between 1983 and 2008 running provincially and federally (while she was a City Councillor), meaning it looks like the fact she's an elected representative didn't affect the way the people of this riding voted. With all the hype around this riding considering the Conservatives have a star candidate here who's at risk of losing according to poll aggregate sites, I am surprised there has not been an actual riding poll. Maybe there will be one within the next week, but as of now I will say Watts is going to Ottawa.
15 10 13 Monkey Cheese
Really surprised that there hasn't been a riding poll for this riding. However, 308 is showing this one as a Liberal gain and Dianne Watts' 'you aren't safe in your bedroom' propaganda flyers have really backfired on her. The arrogance of the Cons' thinking that they would automatically win this riding because of Watts' candidacy I think will also backfire. Unless we get a credible riding poll, I'd say that this is TCTC, but leaning towards the Liberals right now who have the momentum nationally and in BC.
15 10 07 Techienurse
I was driving down 32nd Avenue Diversion this morning, and I came upon a 'shocking number' of 'Watts' signs everywhere. I do not believe that this means she suddenly has support here, but that she is turning very desperate with recent polls. It looked almost like a 'don't you know who I am' declaration. Same thing out Highway 10 toward Cloverdale. She is not displaying her usual political savvy, I think she thought she'd be elected here without even needing to campaign. Her support of Harper, and statements defending him are causing her problems. I believe people feel that Harper will not form the next government, so having a Conservative candidate elected will not help this riding. I believe that Judy Higginbotham actually is a better candidate, and has even more relevant experience for the job. We are 'right next door' to Surrey-Newton which I believe will be a Liberal victory, and I think the constituents in this riding will also vote Liberal.
15 10 07 David Jr.
Liberals leading in South Surrey-White Rock
15 10 05 Craig Hubley
threehundredeight.com has this one with an 8 point Liberal lead, 69% odds to go Liberal, and there are multiple vote swap offers for this riding on facebook Vote Swap Canada 2015 right now, which will add to Liberal total.
With Liberals on the rise and NDP and Greens with far better prospects to swap towards, I can't see the Cons holding this, as long as trends hold.
Another formerly safe Conservative seat lost. A danger of redistribution is that it may well look like it's going to gain you more seats, but each of those is by thinner margins usually. Which means they all collapse in a general shift towards one opposition party which is what we see now.
15 09 27
The over the top 'you are not safe in your bed' flyer has gone down very badly here. Watts' clumsy attempts to distance herself from it just made things worse. No one likes the NDP here but they will vote Liberal if they feel they are being played for fools.
15 09 24 Milo
I just wouldn't bet against Dianne Watts here. The demographic is well suited to the favourite getting her way here. Liberals may surprise here, but ultimately I think the former Mayor gets the job done.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Posters are underestimating Watts' staying power in one of the safest Tory seats on the lower mainland. Grenier's methodology uses general regional swings - it is not an actual poll. The new Liberal candidate has run in this riding multiple times in the past and has lost by giant margins. Unless you riding poll comes out here showing Watts in trouble, I think this is staying Tory. Watts is safe.
15 09 26 A.S.
Quick fix who excels she whom she replaced: Judy Higginbotham as the Anne Lagace Dowson of SS-WR? Though because Judy Hig's no spring chicken and has been through her share of defeats, I'm actually *more* bullish about Dianne Watts' ability to prevail here than about Justin vs ALD in Papineau--indeed, for Watts to have been deemed genuinely 'endangered' up till now has always seemed more a projection-site quirk than anything authentic. Still, I'll withhold just in case, though it'd probably take the Cons being beaten back to Dion if not Iggy levels nationwide to deliver a KO punch to Surrey's Favourite...
15 09 24 Jeff S
That Conservatives are playing the 'we're all going to die' fear card, tells me that this one is TCTC.
15 09 23 Monkey Cheese
Diane Watts has found herself in controversy over flyers that deliberately stoke fear of terrorists in the hearts of voters. It was bad enough that she had to distance herself from the flyers and for people who know her to say that this move is completely out of character for her. Things like this may shore up the party base, but they do little to sway swing voters, which Ms. Watts desperately needs. 308 is still calling SSWR for the Liberals (who seem to have acquired a much better candidate than the one they fired) and if I'm not mistaken, that takes so-called 'star candidates' into question. This is still TCTC until we get a specific riding poll.
15 09 22 Kyle H
I would have said before with Davies and especially after her public firing that this would be a lock for Watts, who is in her own right an independent politician that doesn't and won't drink the blue kool-aid when asked too.
But Judy Higginbotham is by far a more impressive candidate for the district than Davies ever was. I'm not saying that its enough to put her in the lead as the below poster says, but if there truly is an upswing for the Liberals in BC, and its centered on the Lower Mainland and suburban areas like Surrey, Higginbotham is by far the better placed candidate to take advantage of it. We could see a very interesting election night with this.
15 09 18
I thought that the firing of the pro-marijuana left wing Liberal candidate would have put this into the Conservative column but I would say 'no' in light of the quick replacement with the capable Judy Higginbothom as the new Liberal candidate.
She is a very strong candidate and should have been the Liberal's candidate from day one. A former Social Credit politician, provincial Liberal and federal Liberal, experienced city politician she's the type of centre/centre right 'blue Liberal' candidate that is needed for the Liberals to win in this affluent suburban riding.
I think she can take down Watts. I note that even the right wing local papers are expressing consternation why a strong very capable politician like Watts won't show up for all candidate meetings in the riding. That's Judy's window of opportunity to win this riding.
15 09 12 Adeline96
Yes, the NDP is in the lead in this province, but the main threat here has been the Liberals (and even then 'threat' is over stating it). This riding and it's previous renditions have gone to a right wing party since 1974 by large, healthy margins. It's also important to note that the revolving door of Tory representatives here have been uninspiring backbenchers. The riding now has the opportunity to elect it's very popular former Mayor as its representative. Watts will either get a key cabinet position or front bench critic role after this election, and could be in line to be a future Tory leader. The Liberals no longer have a candidate (but may give them the chance to find a star candidate to go eye-to-eye with Watts). This riding is a safe Conservative hold, especially with the Tory rebound in BC in the polls (putting them back around 30% again).
15 09 09 R.O.
This has historically been a conservative riding although current mp Russ Hiebert is not running for re-election .Dianne Watts is a well known former mayor of Surrey and high profile candidate for the conservatives. The liberal and ndp candidates are both new and haven't ran in the riding before federally. but I think this election will be closer and could see the ndp or liberals improving their numbers this year. But this isn't a riding the liberals have won in recent memory and its more likely they would win one of the swing ridings they had won in the past than this one. There is also all kinds of polls coming out for bc some say ndp way ahead and others show a closer race. Just yesterday new ipsos numbers for bc came out 37 ndp,31 lib and 28 cpc . those numbers would indicate bc is still a relatively close race and that cpc is still in the race In many ridings. With a good candidate this is one they should hold on to.
15 09 10 ME
Joy Davies has resigned...the Liberal policy on weed attracted a candidate who was not in line with the policy of the party...The Liberals will now be discredited within this riding..The NDP candidate will now be helped with voters opposed to Harper going NDP vs going to the Liberals..
15 09 09 Canadian Election Atlas
This is a safe Conservative seat. The non-Conservative vote will be split between the Liberals and NDP, and a collapse in the Conservative vote would have to be huge for either of them to win.
Also, right wing parties have won this seat in every election since 1974. I don't see that changing. If people's only reasoning for this seat going Liberal is because '308 said so', then you really don't have an argument.
15 09 08 Steven in South Surrey
The Conservative vote of the base, once thought rock solid, is coming apart in BC. In rural or less wealthy areas of BC, that vote is going to the NDP. In wealthy urban or suburban ridings as this one is, the vote is going to the Liberals.
Setting up this long election seems to have been a strategic error in hindsight.
I think Watts could be in trouble here despite her huge name recognition.
The conservatives will have to spend some resources here to shore up Watts but it may not be enough as the blue tide is receding.
It will be a long night one way or the other.
15 09 01
Not everyone in Surrey is in love with Watts, contrary to the common wisdom.
That said, she does have a formidable political machine and South Surrey does tend to vote Conservatives.
But with the Conservative vote falling off a cliff in BC, this could well be a Liberal pick up.
15 08 31 Monkey Cheese
If she is as popular as you claim, then why run in a relatively safe Conservative riding? Why not have her run in any of the other Surrey ridings, particularly Surrey Newton, where she would have had a true test of her popularity against a strong NDP incumbent. Surely her massive popularity would have stolen a riding from the poll-leading NDP. I'm not saying she'll lose here, but I am saying it's not going to be the cakewalk you and other Conservative posters have claimed, especially with the Tories doing so poorly in BC right now. Hopefully a riding poll comes out here to give us a clearer picture.
15 08 29 Laurence Putnam
Well Monkey Cheese, to answer your question directly: Watts got a whopping 80% of the vote....actually MORE than Nenshi!! Watts' no-nonsense, tough on crime, pro-business attitude resonates well with the people in Surrey and she will be elected with ease. Nothing to do with Kool-Aid, just simple facts. But speaking of Kool-Aid, I suppose if you are entertaining the notion that 'Trudeaumania 2' is about to take hold in South Surrey, or that the NDP will all of a sudden get elected in a riding which they have never won in all of history, then go right ahead. Even without Watts, this riding was PC from the 1960's to the 1990's, Reform Alliance and then Conservative ever since.
15 08 24 BC predictor
Diane Watts has Nenshi levels of popularity in Surrey; that coupled with this being one of the safest lower mainland seats for right wing parties makes this an easy hold.
15 08 12 Monkey Cheese
Perhaps these Conservative spin doctors can so kindly enlighten the rest of us what makes Dianne Watts so popular and why she's automatically guaranteed to win this riding? I know you've already drank the kool-aid, but as 'Numbers' pointed out, the polling clearly shows that SSWR is going to be a competitive race.
15 08 08 Laurence Putnam
Anyone who seriously believes Dianne Watts could actually lose here ought to stop reading fairy tales and consider sessions with a qualified counsellor. I would even predict the possibility of the vote total improving over the 2011 numbers - the Watts brand has the momentum of an unstoppable freight train!
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie here, according to 308. This is another very tough one to call, but I think there will be enough ABC voters to give the Liberals the edge in this riding.
15 08 01 PHYSASTR Master
Make no mistake, as a science student from UBC I have no choice but to hate the conservatives, but Watts will win this because she is Dianne Watts. 308 has the Cons barely hanging on, but bear in mind that 308 is meant to examine poll trends, not candidate popularity. That is to say that if the incumbent was still running for the Cons, according to poll trends this would be a toss-up, but the candidacy of Watts will pad those margins towards an easy Con victory. There really is no more popular politician imaginable in this part of the lower mainland. With Watts in, I think the Cons would have to drop below 5 seats in BC to be touched, which I can't see happening (yet). Easy Con hold, but closer than before.
15 07 31 Matthew
Polls now seem to indicate that it is the NDP that is surging in BC, and not the Liberals. I think this riding will be a lot closer than last time. However, I don't believe the Liberals are going to be able to overcome such a large gap from last time. Coupled with the candidacy of Diane Watts, I believe this will be a close Conservative hold.
15 07 22 Dr Bear
Both LISPOP and threehundredeight are saying this race is too close to call.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
I'm going to be wishy-washy again and change my prediction back to TCTC. I can't ignore the polling numbers that persistently indicate that this riding will vote Liberal. Conventional wisdom may suggest a CPC win, especially with Ms Watts' candidacy but there could be a significant portion of the electorate hankering for change.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Although this seat would have been prone to go LPC, the candidacy of Dianne Watts for the CPC will prevent that. Watts is cabinet material and the Conservative campaign will do everything possible to elect her. She won mayoral elections in Surrey with gigantic margins, and that should carry over federally.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
I have reevaluated my earlier prediction and I'm joining the herd. I think Dianne Watts' candidacy puts this in the CPC column. Where I may differ from others, is that I think the race will be much closer than those in the past. I would even go as far as to not be surprised if the Liberals eke out a win after a close race. I'm still watching this one...
15 03 29 monkey
For starters, this would already be a long shot for the Liberals to win here and with Dianne Watts who was a popular mayor as the Tory candidate that seals the deal.
15 03 25 Dr. Bear
Other forums have suggested that this riding may be a closer race than what's being predicted here. Threehundredeight is suggesting the CPC will come second to the Liberals. Having an open seat and CPC numbers being such as they are in the Vancouver area, I think TCTC is a more accurate prediction.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
Before Dianne Watts entered this race, the Liberals probably could have taken this, but Dianne Watts is so astronomically popular she's going to win this and hold it until she retires. This is a Dianne Watts riding, not a Tory riding.
15 03 21 BJ
During the 2011 election, the CPC won this riding by a huge 33% margin over the nearest competitor. The incumbent CPC MP was also a controversial right-wing, social conservative. A higher-income, red-tory/blue liberal demographic.
The CPC has now nominated former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts as their candidate. Watts is very well-known, not only in Surrey, but also in BC. Likely the most popular politician that BC has ever produced. Even if Watts hypothetically ran as an independent, would not be surprised to see Watts win here.

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