Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Saanich-Gulf Islands

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:45:49

Constituency Profile


Boyd, Robert

Cormier, Alicia

Kane, Tim

May, Elizabeth

Porter, Meghan Jess

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (222/222 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Elizabeth May


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 09 19 Shapes
The real story of this riding is who will place 2nd-4th. I live in the southern tip of the riding, and travelling through the Braefoot area I haven't seen ANY Conservative signs at all. Lots of Tim Kane signs, and a few for the NDP as they appear to have just nominated their candidate. I expect to see the Liberal numbers here rebound from last time, as a lot of disaffected Conservative voters switch sides. Plus there is a lot of Liberal red on private lawns this time around, something I haven't seen probably since David Mulroney ran in 2004. I haven't been north in a while to Saanichton and Sidney, but I imagine there's more blue up that way and that could be the portion of the vote that holds the Conservatives to 2nd place riding-wide. I suspect the race for 2nd could be tighter this time than people would expect.
15 09 18 John
Contrary to my expectations, May still got excluded from last Thursday's leader debate. This won't hurt Elizabeth May, in my opinion, and she is putting up a fight.
Where it could hurt is the Green chances in other ridings. For better or worse, leader debates are free publicity for the participating parties.
15 08 24 BC predictor
May's debate performance and weakening BC CPC vote make this an easy Green call.
15 08 10 Marco Ricci
After a bit of a rough Spring with her bad appearance at the Parliamentary Press Dinner, the momentum is going Elizabeth May's way again. She & Justin Trudeau received the most positive reviews from last week's Leader's Debate, and this will likely firm up her support here.
The other advantage May has is that the only party with a candidate against her so far is the Liberals. The Conservatives appear to have given up trying to win here now that Gary Lunn is gone, and the NDP doesn't have a candidate either. Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Tim Kane admitted in an interview that he is basically running against Harper and not against May since he personally likes her.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Even if the Greens completely tank in the polls and on election day, there is no way Elizabeth May loses her seat. This seat will become competitive when she retires, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Regardless of what you think of her views, she is one of the hardest working MPs and knows her riding well. This will be a Green hold.
This will probably be the only Green seat after the election.
15 08 03 R.O.
As much is I'd like to see her face more of a challenge, it's likely Elizabeth May will have an easier time winning this riding than in 2011. As Gary Lunn the long-time conservative mp is not running against her this time and doesn't appear to really be any high profile candidates . Combine that with 4 years of being mp for the riding . So it's likely the greens win at least 1 seat this election.
15 07 30 John
Elizabeth May is the incumbent.
Also, if the media follows the traditional pattern for leader debates--limiting participation to parties with MPs in the House of Commons--Elizabeth May gets to participate this time. That gets her more (free) coverage.
I say this riding will stay Green.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This is an Elizabeth May seat. She has worked the Constituency hard since being elected in 2011. The opposition can throw any star candidate at her, but her popularity will allow her to stick on with a huge margin.
15 06 26 seasaw
The seat that Green Party finally won may not stay Green. Elizabeth May has not been a very good leader and recently has done some stupid things, so I wouldn't be surprised if NDP or the Liberals took this seat
15 04 09 VanIslander
Easy win for Elizabeth May, with the Tories coming in a distant second.
Results Could look like this:
Greens: 54%
Conservatives: 19%
Liberals: 16%
NDP: 9%
Others: 2%
Elizabeth May sweeps the Gulf Islands and most of North Saanich, as well as most of the urban/suburban polls in Saanich proper. The Conservatives win a couple of the rural polls in Central Saanich as well as the more-senior heavy areas of Sidney and Brentwood Bay. The Liberals might win a few polls, but there best chances would be in Cordova Bay.
15 04 04 A.S.
With an assist from the locally-scandalized/campaign-suspended NDP, Briony Penn practically *did* assume a united-left Green-as-well-as-NDP proxy status in 2008--that's how she happened to wildly outperform her party label in this turf; and, in her turn, Penn paved the way for May to finish the task in 2011. And a little reminder here: May won *despite* a now-redundant Liberal option and no-longer-besmirched NDP option remaining on the ballot. Perhaps the lesson here is: better that strategic voting and victory happen by credible-option 'gravity' than by forced issue. And May's present advantage over Lib/NDP is that she's got more of that 'palatable outsider' thing for erstwhile Lotusland Reform/Alliance maverick populists to chew on--whether or how that translates elsewhere, who knows...
15 03 29 monkey
Considering how well the Greens have done since then in South Vancouver Island, I suspect Elizabeth May to easily hold this as progressive voters will unite behind her and even some Red Tories might vote for her. The Conservatives will do well in the rural parts in the north of the Saanich peninsula but do poorly in the Gulf Islands as well as southern more suburban parts.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
The Liberals do have a candidate here, but it will be tough for the Liberals to do as well here as they did with Briony Penn in 2008. Even though Justin Trudeau has connections to British Columbia through his mother's side and was a teacher in Vancouver, this is now Elizabeth May's riding. That will likely persuade most Liberal & NDP voters to continue voting Green here. The NDP don't have a candidate yet, and neither do the Conservatives. If May was able to beat an incumbent Conservative cabinet minister here by 10 points in 2011, they probably figure there's not much point in running much of a campaign against her in 2015.
15 03 25 Paul McKivett, President, SGI LPCBC
Folks,it is early days in SGI and Ms May does not have the luxury of the $400K the Green Party spent pre-writ here in SGI in the run up to the 2011 election. Granted the proverbial wheels came off the bus for our National and local campaigns in 2011 and that will not happen in this election. We intend to give the Greens a run for what money they do spend this time around. See you on the hustings!
15 03 19 PRM
The Green's polling is at 56.3 % in Saanich. Far more than the 46% in the last election. As well Elizabeth May is very popular with lots of name recognition. She also has the benefit of being a national party leader. This seat will stay Green
15 03 18 Griffin
Definite Green hold, likely with an even larger share of the vote. I'd lose your 'too close' soon as every pundit (including threehundredeight) is predicting a big win for Elizabeth May here.
15 03 18 Erik
I think Elizabeth May has impressed many voters that didn't even consider voting for her in 2011 and will increase her percentage of the vote in 2015.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Elizabeth May hold.
The MPs themselves voted her the best MP in the House. She presents hundreds of petitions. She single-handedly sparked the Bill C-51 resistance when Mulcair was waffling. She broke though by thousands of votes in 2011 at the last minute.
Now, that was *EITHER* because of reciprocal tactical voting by NDP and Liberal supporters who realized that fairness demanded that they support May when Greens across the country were forced to vote second choices, *OR* because May reached some critical threshold of respect and trust. Either way, there will be more breakthroughs of this kind for BC Greens.
May won't lose. Conservatives have easier target ridings than this, and with their poll numbers lower than 2011 and having done so much damage to native relations on the coast, it's more likely an even vote split between NDP, Liberal and Conservatives with none rising to within 5000 votes of May.
Just like the retiring Yvon Godin in Acadie-Bathurst or Jack Harris in St. John's, this is going to be a 2/3 majority vote of confidence in May as an individual, not so much in the Greens.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Elizabeth May devrait conserver sans difficulté son siège, à la fois une parlementaire appréciée et bénéficiant d'une importante visibilité comme chef de parti.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster