Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

North Vancouver

Prediction Changed
2015-09-11 11:22:32

Constituency Profile


Azad, Payam

Martin, Claire

Saxton, Andrew

Thomas, Carleen

Wilkinson, Jonathan

Yetisen, Ismet

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3230.64%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   North Vancouver
   (184/195 polls, 93.22% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Andrew Saxton

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (11/195 polls, 6.78% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Weston


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
The press reported tonight that Justin Trudeau's final campaign stop on Sunday night will be in North Vancouver.
This is symbolic because this is the riding that was at one time represented by his maternal grandfather Jimmy Sinclair back in the 1950's.
But it may also be because if the Liberal lead is only narrow here as the last poll showed, they need to consolidate their vote here in the final day before Election Day.
15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 400 adult residents of North Vancouver shows the following: 33% Liberal, 27% Conservative, 12% Green, 9% NDP and 19% undecided. I'd call this one Liberal.
15 10 14 Steve
Claire Martin is the hardest working, biggest named candidate in this riding. She knocks on many doors each day and is assisted by heavy Green funding and support. I am calling a Green upset here.
15 10 13 BC predictor
The 2011 CPC vote here likely includes far more former liberal voters than seats like south surrey and Delta. With the LPC up in polls and the CPC down its seats like those on the north shore where we'll see the swing. LPC win around 40% of the vote
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
I guess the question here then is, what *is* the Claire Martin vote likely to be? I don't think we've seen a riding poll here yet, but what percentage of the vote is she expected to get?
As I said below earlier in the year, I think Claire Martin's entry into the race potentially complicates things for the Liberals in what theoretically should be a Liberal pickup this year. It's also puzzling why Claire Martin is choosing to run here in the first place since she would be more likely to win in a riding on Vancouver Island near Elizbeth May's base in Saanich & Victoria rather than in Vancouver itself. The Greens only got about 5% of the vote here in 2011, so there isn't much of a base to start from.
But with the Liberals going into the final week with momentum, and in a much stronger position than in 2011, perhaps that will cancel out whatever Green vote Claire Martin gets. It's also possible that Martin will take more from the NDP, and even some from the Conservatives.
So I will say leaning Liberal, but not a guarantee yet.
15 10 07 A.S.
Notwithstanding the vote-splitting potential of the Claire Martin challenge, various polls suggesting the Libs *possibly* on top in BC bode well for NVan--OTOH but for Don Bell (who was really more of a 'disenfranchised PC' type of Liberal), the seat's had a several-decade history of barrel-bottom ConReformers warding off serious Grit challenges. Maybe what's different now is that Justin T. has more claim to being a 'native son' than John Turner ever did, even when he represented a Vancouver riding...
15 09 18 R.O.
This has been a swing riding between liberals and conservatives in recent years but I'd say the jury is still out as to what happens here October 19th . there is still a month to go and bc often a confusing and volatile province politically. Well I'm not saying the liberals have no chance here as it's a riding they do have some history in. when looking at the candidates Don Bell the former liberal mp from 2004-2008 was much more higher proflle than new liberal candidate Jonathan Wilkinson . Andrew Saxton the conservative mp since 2008 has done reasonable well in this riding in past 2 elections he was the candidate although he remains somewhat low profile in Ottawa. Leaning too close to call at this point.
15 09 20 Milo
While incumbent Conservative MP Andrew Saxton has not done anything to dissuade or anger voters, he hasnt done much as a back bencher to warrant a re-election in a year when the appetite for change has heated up. Intelligent, well-off but generally progressive leaning North Vancouver has their ideal candidate in Liberal Jonathan Wilkinson, having been in positions of power within green technology companies and positioning himself as moderate and representative of the riding demographic. His ground game is strong and motivations well voiced. Well known former CBC The National meteorologist Claire Martin is throwing a wrench into that plan of coalescing around the Liberal candidate by running for the Greens and eliciting a good response by voters. In the end however, I believe that with the pick-up in Liberal numbers province wide this will swing back to the Liberals with the Greens achieving positive growth but coming in 3rd here.
15 09 06 Teddy Boragina
The Greens have a bad history of so-called 'star candidates' getting smashed in ridings where the math does not get them anywhere near a victory based on past results alone.
This is such a case.
The math here suggests the Liberals should win - unless they fall too far in the polls, in which case, it is a Conservative riding.
15 09 07 CanadaVotes2015
This riding will be a close one to watch in the final hours on election night. The incumbent MP Andrew Saxton hasn't overwhelmed his constituents in North Vancouver, and change could be on its way. This looks to be a two-way race between Saxton and Jonathan Wilkinson of the Liberals with the Greens getting between 15%-20% of the vote.
LIB- 39%
CON- 31%
GRN- 18%
NDP- 12%
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
This is a riding that developed unusual dynamics because of the Claire Martin run for the Green Party. Until Martin entered, it was expected to be a Liberal vs. Conservative race, as in previous elections. When Martin entered this race, my thought was that it would probably hurt the Liberals and allow the Conservatives to win.
However, now it is September and the Green Party seems to have lost momentum in British Columbia compared to earlier in 2015. The NDP surge in B.C. seemed to take a lot of wind out of the Green Party's sails, even in Victoria, where the Green Party was originally projected to win. Now the NDP has a chance of retaining Victoria afterall.
So will it be possible for the Green Party to win in a riding like North Vancouver? Sites like 308 are showing this as an 84% chance of a Liberal win, so in theory this riding is leaning towards the Liberals right now. Conservative support has fallen in B.C., so even if Martin brings in more votes than usual for the Greens, the Liberals appear to be in the running to win this seat, afterall.
15 09 03 NVcrash
I live in this riding and the Conservative Saxton has done nothing much for the riding and is widely seen as an empty suit, he is only visible in his govt. mail outs.
To pretend that the greens are anywhere on the map is laughable as their numbers are in the single digits and almost all their signs are on public land.
The NDP would be good but have a weak candidate.
However Liberal Jonathan Wilkinson has an excellent resume, his signs are everywhere and he is extremely popular. The libs would have taken this riding last time if the federal leadership had not tanked so horribly, the time before that the Lib candidate had a heart attack during the campaign.
15 08 31 Laurence Putnam
Forgive my posting again, but this is where I live. I will say that Claire Martin is running the best campaign. She is visible and her brilliant 'The Choice Is Claire' signs are everywhere. Very visible high profile office down on Esplanade. But signs don't vote, and I see her ceiling as 15-20%, which in and of itself is extraordinary. Ask yourself who those votes will come at the expense of. The Liberals are also running a decent campaign, they got on the ground early and it shows. But I think Martin will cost them serious votes. If the NDP only got 10%, the Greens 15% and the Liberals 35%, Saxton will likely still squeak back in. I too was fooled in the BC 2013 campaign into believing that North Vancouver-Lonsdale would finally tip back to the NDP....but in the end it never does. Federally, the Liberals always seem to tease here, but for all the people who remember the four scant years Don Bell was in as 'proof that this is a Liberal riding', you'd have to conveniently ignore the 1970s-1990s that it was PC, Reform/Alliance thereafter and Tory since 2008. Saxton too, is running a good if milquetoast campaign, but I don't see him losing it. He's been an effective constituency man and I think everyone around here knows that.
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
With polls showing a surging Green Party in both Burnaby-North Seymour and West-Vancouver Sunshine Coast (on either side of North Vancouver), and combined with the huge name recognition and terrific candidacy of Claire Martin, look for a potential Green surprise here.
15 08 28 Nick M.
North Van can't go Conservative this time around. I am strongly leaning Liberal, but if Trudeau is seen as left of Mulcair, then the NDP might pick this one up. Culturally I have always viewed North Van as wealthy progressives. I am gonna gamble and say that CPC may be shut out from here in the future, just like Rosedale in Toronto. I said it first!!
15 08 24 BC predictor
The left is too fractured and the CPC vote base too large for this seat to flip. CPC hold
15 08 16 Rufus W.
Claire Martin is the highest profile candidate to run in North Vancouver since Tommy Douglas. While the riding has traditionally been Lib-Con only, this election will change that. People are bored with politics and Claire Martin brings something new.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Polling aggregate Threehundredeight is giving the Liberals an 85% win confidence in North Vancouver. Monkey Cheese might be right - the NDP aren't benefiting from the Second Orange Wave here. The polls can always change, but for now, this is a Liberal gain.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
While the NDP are polling stronger in the other regions of BC, they do not appear to be benefiting from the Orange Wave in North Vancouver. The ABC vote appears to be behind the Liberals here who should be able to win against a weak backbencher incumbent.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Andrew Saxton is a hard worker and won't take anything for granted. Should be tight, but the CPC will hold it.
15 07 15 Expat
TCTC is the right call for now in North Vancouver. A riding-specific poll has all three major parties within 6 points of each other here.
Reference: https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvazBZKXonjHpfsX56uskW6OylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ARcRnI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFTbfBMbNo1bgPWRk%3D
15 06 10 Laurence Putnam
It gets a little harder with the Eastern half of the riding gone...but Saxton has been a visible incumbent here and I think he will pull through. Liberal candidate is impressive on paper, but I don't see it and I don't think most in the riding will either.
Monkey's analysis of the riding is very good - but as former PC riding president of many years let me clear up the misconception that Bell was a PC: never was, not in North Vancouver, not to my knowledge. And I would have known.
15 04 12 Marco Ricci
This is normally a Conservative vs. Liberal race. Even in 2011 when the Liberals crashed all over B.C., they still finished 2nd here. So it's hard to know what impact a high-profile candidate like Claire Martin running for the Greens will have. Can she do what Elizabeth May did in Saanich-Gulf Islands and coalesce the non-Conservative vote behind her? If not, the Conservatives might end up getting re-elected here. We'll have to see how this unfolds and whether the Green campaign makes a strong impact.
15 04 15 Dr. Bear
Polling suggests the Liberals have a HUGE lead over everyone in North Vancouver, but I'm not so sure. Clair Martin running for the Greens afford them name recognition and with that recent oil spill in English Bay, voters in the Vancouver area may be giving them a good hard look. Hard enough to win? Had enough to split the vote and allow the CPC to come up the middle? Have to wait and see...
15 04 15 Griffin
i concur. With an incredibly strong candidate in Claire Martin, this could be a huge Green upset. Add to that Elizabeth May's near guaranteed place in the debates and be sure to watch for some incredible momentum in an array of Vancouver Island/Lower Mainland seats, particularly this one.
15 04 07 ME
The Tory MP is a weak MP and repeats talking points without understanding..
Claire Martin the former CBC weather person is a clear favourite to win for the Greens
15 03 29 monkey
This is generally a centre-right riding so a lot will depend on the Liberal platform. Part of the reason it went Liberal in 2004 and 2006 is the Tories both times had lousy candidates while Don Bell was a very popular former mayor and also centre-right as he used to be a former PC before they merged with the Reform/Alliance and is still a BC Liberal supporter. That being said the Liberals still got 29% during their meltdown in 2011 and with many rentals in the city of North Vancouver as well as a large Iranian community (who probably don't like Harper's anti-Muslim attitude) could tip this in favour of the Liberals so TCTC.
15 03 26 gbamber
Saxton has a strong recognition over his unknown rivals. The non-Conservative voters will split their votes between the Liberals and NDP.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This one will be really tight. If the Liberals become the main opposition in BC to the CPC, they win it. However, as long as BC left wing voters divide, they lose.
15 03 23 Fairview Resident
When the Liberals are in the running for first place in BC, they win the North Shore. This is their strongest riding. Wilkinson is a solid candidate, and Saxton simply has not been strong enough to be able to count on the incumbency factor to save his skin. Right now, this looks like a Liberal gain.

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