Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:50:34

Constituency Profile


Green, Bill

Johnston, Don

Stetski, Wayne

Wilks, David

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 6091.15%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (194/255 polls, 78.72% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Wilks

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (61/255 polls, 21.28% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Alex Atamanenko


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15 10 16 Island Rancher
Use all the make up data you want to there people in the West Kootenay carve off....I must know 200 people that are working men and women in the East Kootenay's, ranchers, miners, loggers, big game guides, millwrights, welders, farmers, railway staff etc....not one of them is supporting a left or left of center candidate. These people are intelligent, hard working, articulate individuals who know that their bread is buttered on the continuation of the creation of wealth through business, particularly the business of the region within which they live. Red Tories...hahahahaha....that is an urban myth that doesn't translate well in the Rural areas...even teachers and cupe members predominantly support the federal Conservatives in this riding.
15 10 14 OS
There are many Red Tory's in the riding that are disaffected for a variety of reasons with the Conservatives. In 2011, and previous elections, there was no viable alternative to the Conservatives. With a credible Liberal candidate, they may vote Liberal. Rather than the NDP and Liberal's splitting the anti-Conservative vote, the former Conservative vote appears to be bleeding to the Liberals to a significant degree. The real question is whether the NDP can maintain its core support, or whether some of that core support transfers to the Greens. NDP win by a narrow margin.
15 10 13 kelsey
One interesting technique to break down Kootenay-Columbia is to look at how people people within this riding vote provincially. We can do this because three provincial electoral districts make up Kootenay Columbia almost perfectly (Columbia River Revelstoke, Nelson-Creston, Kootenay East)
In those three ridings, BC Liberals + BC Conservatives commanded in 2013 provincially:
20759 votes cumulatively.
In total, the BC NDP commanded in 2013 provincially:
20636 votes cumuatively.
This ignores BC Green votes that ran very strongly in Nelson-Creston, cumulatively getting 4308 votes cumutively (no Greens ran provincially in 2011).
The data shows how the raw vote totals from the provincial electoral districts show how closely this riding splits left/right if it was a provincial riding. Obviously this data does not translate cleanly into the Federal sphere, but it shows the riding is not the Conserative bastion people assume it is. If Greens weren't acting as spoilers I could quite confidently call this riding NDP.
15 10 12 Island Rancher
Again another riding where the politically inept punditry of the left are wistfully wishful in their thinking. This is Ranching, Mining and Forestry country people! Their main trading/transportation corridors open up into the heart of Wild Rose country next door. Who in their right mind actually believes that these good people are going to all of a sudden forsake their generationally held beliefs that fall far to the right of center regardless of stuffing the odd polling stations from the hippy dippy West Kootenays into the new constituency? Many of the East Kootenay poll stations have historically returned 90% in favour of Conservative candidates. Any call on this riding otherwise, is disinformation.
15 10 12 kdh
This riding is in play thanks to redistricting of NDP-strongholds from the West Kootenay into this riding (Nelson and Kaslo). We now have evidence to back this. LeadNow polled this riding on September 18-21 & confirmed that this riding is a dead heat between NDP and Conservatives: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-sept-22-15.pdf
Conservative: 37%
NDP: 37%
Liberal: 15%
Green: 11%
However, since LeadNow's polling people have noted that NDP numbers have dropped nationally, meaning the NDP may no longer win a riding like this one. However, Conservative numbers in BC continue to remain weak as most of the national changes reflect movements in numbers from Quebec; NDP polling in BC still remains pretty strong. This riding now faces a much more aggressive fight amongst progressives now that people realize that Kootenay-Columbia is no longer a safe Conservative riding.
Thanks to Justin the Liberals will no doubt rise in this riding, but it's unclear whether that means siphoning away votes from the NDP or the Conservatives.
Another demographic matter to note about this riding: traditional 'blue collar' jobs in this riding are disappearing. In its place increasing number of residents have moved here for sporting, recreation or 'holistic' reasons. The hippy vibe of towns like Nelson and others within the West Kootenays is increasingly having an influence on the East Kootenay portion of this area as local demographics shift to more progressive-friendly people.
Recent proof of this: Kimberley just became the first municipality outside of Vancouver/Victoria to pass bylaws to legalize marijuana. This reflects the reality that conservatives in this riding have always had more of a libertarian slant than usual, and the Conservatives have not been targeting these voters well recently as they have pursued anti-marijuana and anti-Niqab messaging.
Prediction: Very narrow NDP victory.
15 10 10 Mark in Mexico
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo and Kootenay-Columbia were the NDP's brightest hopes for Interior pick-ups, but with the Liberals certain to rise and the Conservatives polling respectably in the Interior, those hopes have been dimmed, if not dashed outright.
15 10 07 A.S.
Maybe it wouldn't have happened without the nuclear-Dipper BCSI add-ons; but it's interesting to see Kootenay-Columbia revert to what it was pre-1993: a perfect NDP-vs-Con swing riding. Whether it *does* swing to the NDP this time, I don't know--but maybe for retro-poetry's sake, it *should*...
15 10 06 R.O.
This is a tough riding to predict , its currently held by incumbent conservative mp David Wilks although redistributed significantly from riding he won in 2011. Its an area where the ndp appeared to have potential earlier in the campaign but ndp aren't doing as well although still doing ok in bc. The old Kootenay Columbia riding was fairly safe for the conservatives when Jim Abbott mp but this election seems to be more competitive in bc. The outcome may depend on how David Wilks has performed as mp the last 4 years and if he is seen as an effective mp.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
Regardless of what actually happened inside the Green Party, the following is absolutely clear:
1. The Green members who nominated the candidate who withdrew, got their intended result: He withdrew and there will be no Green name on the ballot.
2. Also as they intended, almost everyone in the riding knows that the intent of the Green candidate was to endorse the Liberal. The fervent denials that this is an endorsement of Trudeau or of Liberals in any other riding, by May and Morelli and so on, actually just emphasize that this particular Liberal is friendly and acceptable to them more than his party.
3. Whether intended or not, the debate has centered on whether the Liberal or NDP candidate was actually the leading challenger to the Conservative, with present numbers (threehundredeight.com) now seemingly favouring the Liberal, though numbers at the time of the nomination favoured the NDP. It would be hard to find a progressive in this riding not aware of both facts. Hell, it's hard to find a politico in Canada not aware of both.
4. Thus this attempt-to-endorse-make-a-loud-fight-and-then-withdraw-as-intended has succeeded, wildly, at almost all of its intended goals.
It even gave the Green Party a plausible deniability 'out' if the NDP were to finish ahead, as they technically did not endorse anyone at all, even if the entire planet knows the local EDA intended to. Pretty much perfect as a publicity stunt, and as an electoral cooperation encouraging tactic.
Expect to see many more of these endorse-and-withdraw candidates next time and not only in the Green Party but in marginal NDP and Liberal and other small parties (Marijuana, Libertarian, Pirate) especially those relying on vote swaps to elect leaders. This tactic will now be with us until reform.
15 09 23 Jeff S
Dead heat according to Insights West.
15 09 18 OS
For the first time in several elections, the Liberals as well as NDP have credible candidates, which will split the anti-conservative vote. Wilks is well regarded in the East Kootenay's and is spending a good deal of time campaigning in the West Kootenay portion of the riding recently added with redistribution. The margin of the win for Wilks will be less than 2011, but he will still take a majority of the votes. However, there is still a month left in this long campaign and much can happen.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
This is the right call for this riding. The NDP are polling way too high for a backbencher MP to beat. This is even before Wilks' million-dollar blunder:
15 07 26 R.O.
I'm assuming redistribution is the reason for the ndp prediction as Kootenay Columbia wasn't even close last time. However it was redistributed to include a large portion of Alex Atamanenko's old ndp riding of bc southern interior . but even when those numbers are included cpc still has a large lead here. I don't know but its still a pretty right of centre area that has voted that way since 93 for conservative candidates. David Wilks is still running again for the cpc as well. ndp are likely the main competition here but still might have a ways to go to pick this one up.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
With the numbers as they are in central BC, I am certain now that the NDP will win this seat. Many months to go and things could change but for now it's the NDP.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
The NDP is polling very well in BC. Although Wilks is a well liked Constituency MP, it looks like he will be picked off in an orange wave.
15 06 23 Mr. Dave
The recent surge by the NDP nationally, as well as in B.C., puts ridings such as this one into the winnable category for the NDP.
Have a mayor of the largest community in the riding won't hurt their chances either.
NDP gain!
15 06 03 Harpreet
The NDP has the popular former Mayor of Cranbrook, the largest city in the riding, running as their candidate. The new riding has added NDP friendly areas from the former BC Southern Interior riding. With Harper tanking in BC this should be an easy NDP pick-up.
15 05 20 VJR
Both LISPOP and 308.com have Kootenay-Columbia predicted as NDP seats in 2015, ad the NDP's polling numbers are on the rise in BC.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
Though this is the conservatives to lose, one can not discount the NDP in this riding. Slumping numbers for the CPC in BC may make this competitive. I'm keeping an eye on this riding.
15 03 28 BJ
This riding continues to trend toward the right of the political spectrum. The underlying provincial ridings, during the 2013 BC provincial election, saw same with a jump in BC Lib support of up to 12% and a drop of BC NDP support of 7%.
The riding itself also sees a continuing major influence from Alberta, especially from Calgary, as many Albertans have either moved here or vacation here at their summer homes (majorly in Windermere and Lake Windermere).
Again, resource development is a key issue in this riding against which the NDP provincially has been negatively branded. Will also affect the federal NDP vote in 2015. This riding also includes the largest metallurgical coal (for Asian steel-making) mining area in Canada. That regions has also always voted heavily for the CPC.
The NDP candidate suffered a major defeat, in November, 2014, after just one term as mayor of Cranbrook, the major (and right-of centre) city in the riding and, ergo, he carries political baggage as a result.
With redistribution, the heavily NDP West Kootenay town of Nelson has been added to the riding but that 2011 NDP vote is also heavily geared environmentally green. Suspect that both the Liberals and Greens will eat into the 2011 NDP vote here and, as a result, the CPC will see a larger winning margin over 2011.

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