Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Kelowna-Lake Country

Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:09:56

Constituency Profile


Bowman, Norah Mary

Cannan, Ron

Fuhr, Stephen

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Kelowna-Lake Country
   (221/221 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ron Cannan


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15 10 14 Craig Hubley
Withdrawing my Con call for reasons more or less as others have stated: a general Liberal rise in BC, and its frustration elsewhere where it will be leading only to Conservative seats, may find proper expression here where there's a chance to do something historic: Elect a more or less co-nominated Green/Liberal candidate. Yes, I know the party HQ hate that, but the local riding associations chose candidates that wanted to do it, and that's a huge credit on them, on democracy, and a credibility boost.
I do not believe the Green vote will shift as normal first and second choice dynamics would suggest, nor that a lot of Greens will stay home. They will probably vote Liberal just to prove that a huge boost can come with a Green endorsement, even if they don't like this particular candidate. The risk is low as the NDP aren't much of a threat to take this seat, and the gain is potentially huge if it triggers 30 or 40 co-nominations with friendly NDP and/or Liberals in tough positions in future elections. And if it forces EC to finally clarify rules for this.
Question is, are the voters in this riding aware of the power they have, and how they can actually change the system for the better? 60-70% of Canadians want to vote for a coalition. In this riding they actually can.
15 10 13 BC predictor
I agree that this is a liberal target when they're getting close to majority numbers but it's not quite there yet. CPC hold for now. (I also think the federal liberals will be stronger 2nd's in the fraser valley ATM as well)
15 10 10 Mark in Mexico
Teddy's on the right track. Throughout the campaign, Innovative's regional numbers for the Liberals in the Interior have been two to three times higher than in 2011. That support has to come from somewhere, and Kelowna is where it'll start.
In most of the Interior, the Liberals are a non-entity and the NDP has carried the left flag for decades. In Kelowna, by contrast, the NDP are a non-entity, having never scored outside of the teens until riding the orange wave to an unimpressive 22%.
So whilst a Liberal surge turns most of the Interior from Conservative-NDP battles to likely Conservative victories, in Kelowna it's the opposite: a Conservative runaway turns into a competitive contest.
Then the cherry on top. Of course, this is also the corollary to Victoria's unique situation, as there is no Green candidate (in this case, not even on the ballot). So the Greens will redistribute themselves amongst the other parties. For a litany of reasons mentioned by others here, the Liberals seem poised to take the lion's share of the otherwise Green votes.
The Liberal candidate seems to have some appeal to Conservatives so he'll take blue votes and some orange ABH votes, too.
If the Liberals were to take this riding, they'd likely be forming government, too, and probably wouldn't have many '250' options to choose from when building a cabinet.
So a Liberal cabinet minister from Kelowna is not unfathomable...
...but Innovative shows the Conservative trend is up, not down, in the Interior. So if the election were today, this riding would lean Conservative. The election is in nine days, so with the electorate still sorting itself out, it's too early to call this. TCTC.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
Historically, this has been the best area for the Greens in BC outside ridings touching the Georgia Strait.
The lack of a Green candidate is starting to matter with more and more polls showing the Liberals nearing or at 30% in the province. Even if only a fraction of the Green voters decide to vote Liberal, the race is close enough, and there are enough Greens (that such a fraction is meaningful) that the Liberals have the very narrow edge here.
15 10 08 R.O.
This riding has a really small ballot with only 3 candidates on the ballot , no green and no fringe candidates . Ron Cannan has been mp since 2006 and won by comfortable margins every election he's ran in here. he has been mp for a while so has a long record in Ottawa to run on by this point and voters in Kelowna are familiar with him by now . with no green candidate the ndp and liberals will do better here but riding is a conservative area politically.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
The inside story I have is as follows:
1. The Green candidate who proposed endorsing the Liberal did so openly and advertised this broadly to those he could reach.
2. The Green electoral district association (EDA) prevented him from making his intent and proposal clear to the membership in some fashion.
3. Few Green members showed up for the nomination. Afterwards, many who did not claimed that they had no idea that there was any candidate who'd proposed to step down - these were apparently mostly marginally involved but the majority of EDA members.
4. It was these disgruntled members who most strongly opposed the 'co-nomination' though it did seem that both Liberal and Green party constitutions prevented that. The matter could have been referred to the courts to see if the parties were behaving like cartels, but obviously not in time for the election. So it became basically a proposal to step down and get off the ballot.
5. Green Party HQ is split on the issue with some considering it useful as an exercise and others considering it an 'affront to democracy'. Those who take the latter position are those generally suspicious of cooperation of any kind, who seem never to have met a co-operative proposal they like.
6. Everyone seems to agree that Green candidates who intend strategies other than 'run to win' have a right to run for the nomination, but that there must be some way to make clear to the whole EDA membership that this is their intention, so that the nomination doesn't get challenged later on.
All this won't affect the outcome in this riding anyway, it's Conservative. The debacle and incoherent Green Party behaviour and internal sabotage by the EDA and/or nominees' campaigns or paper members probably did nothing good for the long term prospects of the Greens here. But that's a problem with the Green constitution and local leadership not with the endorsement/dropout proposal, which seemed reasonable to many in that Party.
15 09 16 Geoff de Guère
I spied an update on the local green party fiasco today, and thought I'd share it for further clarification (?) in case anyone's interested.
15 08 19 Craig Hubley
Very minor correction here without a prediction: Though a co-nomination was debated, the Kelowna Greens in the end voted on an endorsement rather than a co-nomination. Such endorsements of leading candidates are not unheard of amongst the Greens, as are withdrawals in favour of other candidates (notably Bill Casey in 2008, though he was an independent and nominally his own 'party leader'). Apparently some kind of approval process at the Green Party is required that is poorly defined and so it's not clear that Kelowna Greens are free to do what they want. I agree it should be taken to court.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
The Liberal-Green co-nomination here was interesting, but it's between the third and fourth place party, both so far behind they don't add up to even a challenge to the NDP, assuming even their voters uniformly voted with party recommendation. It has sparked an interesting fight about party rules and constitutions, however, and whether party leaders have the power to forbid such deals. If the co-nomination is disallowed, expect a formal court challenge to the powers of parties, given that co-nominations, on-podium endorsements, agreements to drop out before ballots are printed, and so on, are very common features of elections in other democracies, and rightly so.
Greens in this riding had a lively debate with probably more options than any other riding in the country: A candidate who'd endorse the Liberal, a candidate who'd drop out, a candidate who'd run to win, and most likely at least one more that would have endorsed the NDP who dropped out early due to Mulcair's intransigence on inter-party cooperation (worse than Trudeau) before an election. It's unlikely Elizabeth May will oppose this kind of co-nomination given she benefits immensely from crossover votes in Saanich Gulf and so will Gord Miller and Frank de Jong if either can get elected.
Liberals have a tougher time with being identified with Green positions, by contrast, though they always appreciate Green supporters' votes. The NDP as usual will invent a previously unknown 'principle' to oppose this, that will just as quickly disappear when they benefit from co-nomination in some other riding (it's not impossible that may happen in South Shore St. Margaret's where Green Michael Oddy endorsed the NDP in mid-election).
Anyway all this won't affect the result in 2015 which will be Conservative.
Co-nomination just isn't as effective as riding twinning, vote swapping and co-voting campaigns that actually equip non-voters in 2011 to vote. The parties are hopelessly conflicted by existing law prior to elections, so it's up to the voters not the parties to cooperate until election day. Leadnow, Vote Swap, and so on, are leading that, not riding associations.
15 06 14 A.S.
In the Notleymania aftermath, one can understandably wonder whether even Kelowna is nowadays 'reachable' for the NDP--after all, it's technically an 'urban' riding, enough to apply 'if Red Deer can do it...' optimism--and that's despite its remaining elusive in either the federal caucus's BC highwater mark of 1988 or the provincial Harcourt landslide of 1991. I mean, surely, it can't be *that* terminally Jesusland out here, not with growth and everything--but yeah, this is BC, where the NDP option's a bit 'flakier' than in the Prairies; and it'd also require the thorough strategic roll-over-play-deading of both the Justin Liberals and the EMay Greens, which right now doesn't look terribly likely. So at worst, we might be seeing 1988 all over again--under-40% Cons vs a too-split opposition.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Conservative to the core. Kelowna will be an easy CPC hold.

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