Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:15:14

Constituency Profile


Devellano, Anthony Edward

Findlay, Kerry-Lynne

Leveque, Jeremy

Qualtrough, Carla

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3070.67%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Newton-North Delta
   (90/187 polls, 53.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jinny Jogindera Sims

   Delta-Richmond East
   (97/187 polls, 46.38% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Kerry-Lynne D. Findlay


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
The press reported tonight that Justin Trudeau's final campaign stop tomorrow night will be in British Columbia (North Vancouver), so perhaps the Liberals do see some momentum building out on the West Coast.
I have no idea whether this riding will go Liberal, though.
15 10 17 South Islander
Sometimes the greatest barrier to flipping a district is the belief that the incumbent is entrenched. Local media have recently reported that the Conservatives are in real danger of losing this to the Liberals. It's a bit strange that there have been no local polls, but past voting and BC polling indicates that this riding is likely to elect a Liberal.
15 10 14 Ron Politics
I am calling this for the Liberals.
It's true that under Paul Martin - the Liberals had 9 seats and this seat wasn't one of them.
However, I think on Monday, the LPC vote is going considerably higher than in the Paul Martin minority. I see them coming close to or getting a narrow majority based on the trend line. If that's so, this is in the next tier of BC ridings the LPC can get after the North Shore.
The strong anti-Conservative vote in North Delta is going to go Liberal and the anti-NDP vote in Tsawassen will go not just to the Conservatives. The result is a narrow LPC win.
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
Turnout is higher amongst the aged, and they comprise a higher % of the population in the western part of this riding, traditionally a Conservative heartland. The Liberals will make things very interesting here, but may come up just short in a tight race, with the NDP falling back but still showing fairly strong.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
There's a well-publicized live vote swap meet in Vancouver Thursday (Thornton Park, 5:30PM) so that Greens living here have the opportunity to swap for a more useful vote in a nearby riding. It's quite possible that cancelling swaps and contrary 'strategic voting' advice from bunkers will clash in this riding. The consensus at something like a regional swap meet could matter a bit, but likely not, as the concept is just too new.
Delta is such a new riding with unclear dynamics that it's not clear if the 're-elect' will anger enough people away from the Cons to stay home.
But I do tend to believe that people are repelled by unethical campaign tricks like using old 2011 numbers or claiming to be an incumbent when you're not, or claiming all polls are bogus conspiracies against you (cough NDP cough you were happy to cite those same polls at high tide).
15 10 13 BC predictor
Re: chicken counters submission
Those of us commenting on this riding from a historical standpoint know that north delta was a tight 3way race as part of newton-north delta but even in a 3rd place finish in the whole riding the cpc eked out 1st place in the north delta portion. This was not one of the Martin ridings in BC and I don't see it becoming liberal now. The CPC likely falls to the high 30's low 40's here while the NDP portion in north delta is not likely to swing to the LPC due to their stronger historic presence in the riding. You can't simply take the swing in vote shown over an entire province and uniformly apply it to ridings you've never been in
15 10 08 R.O.
This is a somewhat redistributed riding as it's a mix of old Newton North Delta and Delta Richmond east ridings. bc is such a volatile province politically it's a challenge to try and predict. Kerry Lynne Findlay is one of the higher profile conservative mp's from bc and I'd be surprised if she doesn't hold this riding. That being said the race is likely closer than 2011 and this area of bc often very competitive ridings.
15 10 09 Chicken Counter
This really is a brand new riding, so predictions are dangerous. Those predicting a Conservative 'hold' seem unaware that a good half of Delta is currently held by NDP MP Jinny Sims. Indeed, many North Delta residents are put off by the words 're-elect' on the Conservative signs. Meanwhile a large chunk of right-leaning Richmond has been lost from the riding. That being said, the Conservative candidate idea does hold a minor cabinet post, and Ladner and Tsawwassen do vote Conservative.
Like a lot of the country, it comes down vote splitting. If the NDP and Liberal votes even out, the Conservative will win. But, with the recent national trends, the anti-conservative consensus is tilting Liberal. In this riding, the Liberal candidate is well organized and popular, sinim going with a Liberal squeaker here.
15 10 07 A.S.
Agreed about the general vote-split situation; but the thing about North Delta is that there's a *lot* of it--surprisingly enough, it's got almost half of the present riding's voter population. So, claims on behalf of the NDP aren't altogether overstated--however, and particularly in light of current trends, it seems likelier that North Delta will swing strategically to the Grits than Lad/Ts to the NDP. Depending on how any of that works out, I'll withhold a CPC prediction, even if the Con/ReformAlliance axis have been winning here consistently for decades...
15 10 03 Ray M.
This is a three way race but I think the Liberals are going to take this one.
Firstly, the Liberals' polling is up and the NDP is down in BC (and nation wide).
Secondly, the riding is split into two halves - one which could go either NDP or Liberal but not Conservative. Another part could go Conservative first or Liberal second but no NDP.
North Delta has voted NDP or Liberal in the past. This area could go Liberal or NDP equally.
South Delta includes upscale Tsawwassen. This area usually votes Conservative federally and BC Liberal provincially BUT it can be very unpredictable and has elected independents to represent it. It's also very environmentally conscious. South Delta will never, ever vote NDP.
However, as is typical in Greater Vancouver upscale areas, voting Liberal is always an alternative to voting Conservative.
As such, the Liberals are acceptable to both parts of the riding but the NDP and Conservatives are not acceptable to each of the halves.
Therefore, the Liberals could definitely pick this one up.
15 09 28 BC predictor
CPC numbers are up and there is no consensus ABC candidate here (NDP is very storng in north delta, very weak in ladner/tswassen).
Factor in that this is not one of the Martinesque GVRD ridings (Ala the richmonds and north shore ridings) and this is staying blue
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
The uptick in Liberal numbers in BC now has Delta leaning Liberal with a 71% likelihood of a win. (September 6, 2015)
Obviously too soon to predict a Liberal win here without more local information, but it's an interesting slant to the race.
15 08 28 Nick M.
The popular vote percentage wise in this riding was very similar to the popular vote for BC. Using my twisted logic that Delta's polling would be polling identical to the provincial polls, I'll swing this NDP.
15 08 24 BC predictor
This riding is a prime example of hard to predict using BC polling numbers. Delta's three communities break down into two solid conservative sections with lots of retiree's (Ladner and Tsawwassen) and one swing NDP/CPC section which also happens to be the most populated (North Delta).
Historically voter turnout is highest in Ladner and Tsawwassen while lower than the provincial average in North Delta. While the NDP could win the most votes in the North Delta polls (which, btw, they didn't win in 2011 when they won Newton-North Delta and also didn't win the Delta North riding in the provincial election) they are incredibly weak in the southern portion. If the Liberals were in the 40's in BC then we might be talking about this seat but as of now it's staying Blue
15 08 12 Monkey Cheese
I think I might have been too hasty calling this one for the NDP. New polling from 308 shows the Liberals back in the lead in Delta. I suspect that this will switch back and forth throughout the campaign so I'll change my prediction to TCTC until the final week of the campaign. Delta is one of the more interesting ridings to watch in BC.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The Conservative vote seems to have fallen again in BC. This is one of the rare true three-way races in BC and right now the NDP are currently favoured due to the regional numbers. The Liberals and Conservatives are close behind, but I expect the NDP to narrowly win here based on the regional polling numbers.
15 07 31 Matthew
The Conservative vote seems to have stabilized in BC. They are no longer polling in third place. Similar to nearby South Surrey-White Rock, I believe this riding will be closer than last time but still a Conservative hold.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
I'm not sure why 'Prime Predictor' and others are thinking that Delta is a sure thing for the Conservatives when Threehundredeight is showing them in a near statistical tie for second with the Liberals. The NDP have been riding high in British Columbia and currently have a narrow lead here. Any party can realistically win this, but the polling numbers give the NDP the edge right now.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Minister Finlay is a hard worker and has experienced political wins and losses. She will work hard to succesfully hold it.
15 07 17 Dr Bear
Polling numbers are showing the CPC in THIRD place, with the NDP leading a close three-way race. Hunh! Who would have thought?
15 06 15 SLN
The note that the Liberals have a star candidate is somewhat laughable. The Candidate ran in the 2014 School Trustee election in Delta and she could not even secure 5,000 votes. She may get some traction on the Liberal name but most certainly this is a CPC hold
15 04 20 JC
The Liberal nomination meeting recently took place and the Liberals have a very strong candidate in place. This one was considered a competitive riding depending on who the candidate was and it is Carla Qualtrough who is the Former President of the Canadian Paralympic Committee and was also a Three Time Paralympic Bronze Medalist, I would say Ms. Findlay has quite the fight on her hands.
15 03 29 RoJo
This area is strongly Conservative. Redistributed 2011 results show that the Conservatives would win this by over 20%, so even with weaker Conservatives in the polls, this would likely still go to the CPC. Also, the main challenger to the Conservatives are the NDP, who are not polling as well this time around. Even though Richmond East (which is was removed from this riding) is more Conservative than the three-way race of North Delta (which was added to this riding), I still think the CPC margin is too large for either the LPC or NDP to take this.
15 03 29 monkey
This will stay Conservative as Ladner and Tswwassen are fairly solidly conservative as are the ALR portions. North Delta is more mixed and will likely be a three way split, but the Tories tend to do well on the southern end around Sunshine Hills. Never mind Delta North is a swing riding provincially while Delta South may have elected Vicky Huntingdon who is fiscally conservative but a swing riding in Delta North + solid Conservative in Delta South = Conservative win.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Again, stronger LPC split with the NDP easily will re elect MP Findley.
15 03 25 JJ
Kerry-Lynne Findlay won this riding with a solid margin last election. She is the Revenue Minister and a high-profile MP. CPC hold.
15 03 25 BJ
The redistributed riding of Delta now lies entirely within its municipal boundaries and Delta comprises 3 separate communities. The 2 western communities are Tsawwassen and Ladner, which together comprise roughly 50% of Deltas population.
Over the past 4 elections, the CPC has won 99% of the riding polls in these two areas, many by large margins.
North Delta, the 3rd community in Delta, was added on with redistribution (formerly part of the Newton-North Delta riding) and represents the other roughly half of Deltas population.
Again, the CPC won the vast majority of polling stations in the southern half of North Delta - south of 72nd Ave., which includes the higher end communities of Sunshine Hills and part of Panorama Ridge.
The northern half of Delta North (north of 72nd Ave.) is the interesting part. The CPC won most of the polling stations skirting the western side, while both the Liberals and NDP won the majority of the rest of the inner polling stations. I also suspect that many former NDP voters will vote Liberal in 2015 as the Liberals will most definitely take 2nd place in Delta.
However, not enough. The CPC won by a 20% margin back in 2011. Suspect that they will at least obtain a 10% winning margin in 2015. CPC hold.
15 03 25 Dr. Bear
Threehundredeight is calling this a Liberal gain in a relatively close race (40:32 LPC:CPC). The few times I'm seen Ms Findlay, she seemed amicable and competent. I honestly don't have anything more probative to assess her abilities as an MP or cabinet minister. Just being the incumbent and a minister should help her chances at reelection. However, the polling data is showing the CPC trailing badly in the Vancouver area. If the Liberals get a good candidate they will win this seat. One to watch.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
This is a strange situation, I honestly feel the Tories are the favorites here but every poll and calculation show that the Liberals would end up taking this riding. Unfortunately I think this riding is too close to call as we have no idea who the Liberals will get to run in this riding.

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