Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-16 22:45:40

Constituency Profile


Fast, Ed

Fowler, Stephen

MacKay, David

Martel, Jen

Njenga, Peter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1950.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (212/212 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ed Fast


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15 10 06 A.S.
The kind of seat which stayed provincially Socred in 1991. And while Abbotsford has seen its pocket-Surrey share of non-'old stock' diversity; well, this being Abbotsford, they're even more amenable to the Jason Kenney pitch than their equivalents elsewhere. It won't change unless the right re-disunites...and even then, it'll likely be one of the disunited portions that'll pick up where their predecessors started.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
Drain cleaner blue, says threehundredeight.com and regional BC polling has not shown BC interior Conservatives suffering much. The opposition parties do not even have a visble campaign to swap to, so their votes truly count for nothing, no one elsewhere will be swapping for them. Sad.
15 08 14 Sykes
Fast consistently pulls more than sixty percent of the vote each election. Even a massive NDP surge in British Columbia won't be enough to unseat the Conservative incumbent.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
Safest Conservative riding in BC. The rest of the province is riding an orange wave at the moment, but this riding is going to buck any such trend.
15 03 29 monkey
At the heart of the bible belt of BC, this is probably the safest Conservative seat in the province so no chance they will lose this. The only way this will ever become competitive is if you have two right wing parties in which the battle would be between centre-right and hard right.
15 03 22 Brian A
This riding won't get a lot of activity on this site, because of how utterly blue it is, so I'll take this opportunity to say that the Abbotsford air show is always a fun event to attend. Also, this riding used to elect Randy White as its MP. Randy White, who made George W Bush seem liberal.
15 03 16 JW
Heart of BC's bible belt. Would be apocalyptic (no pun intended) if the Conservatives lose this one.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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