Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Strathcona

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:40:26

Constituency Profile


Binnema, Jacob K.

Bromsgrove, Ryan

Duncan, Linda

Eckstrom, Donovan

Jones, Chris

MacDonald, Dougal

Olszewski, Eleanor

Schurman, Andrew

Stinson, Malcolm

Thom, Len

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3840.77%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (222/229 polls, 98.06% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Linda Duncan

   Edmonton East
   (7/229 polls, 1.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Goldring


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15 09 23 Lolitha
Huge upset if Duncan weren't the winner here. Blanketed with NDP signage, though i think the liberals will do slightly better here than last time (quite a few liberal signs in some areas, but not a threat to Duncan)
15 08 27 John
The Globe and Mail is suggesting Edmonton Strathcona is one of two Alberta ridings that will go NDP (the other being Edmonton Centre).
The Globe and Mail is also saying that these are the only two riding in Alberta that won't go Conservative.
15 08 27 William
In probably the most bizarre decision to come out of the federal electoral commission for Alberta, the boundaries for Edmonton Strathcona remain unchanged due to 'natural boundaries' (being the Whitemud and river) according to the commission, despite admitting it to be a riding with very low growth possibility and already having the lowest riding population in the 2011 census. However, this means there are no added neighborhoods that might possibly add in Conservative votes, and instead it will retain the hardcore Strathcona NDP areas.
15 08 23 John
Went on a bike ride through the Edmonton Strathcona riding today and saw some Linda Duncan lawn signs. The bright orange is really noticeable too.
I don't recall seeing anybody else's signs yet.
15 07 30 John
Linda Duncan is a two time incumbent. NDP won the last provincial election. Surge in federal NDP support. I think this riding will stay NDP.
15 07 25 A.S.
Not the seat was regarded so much as 'weakest' as '2008 fluke'--even then, Duncan's incumbency was her advantage. But if we were to extrapolate everything from the Orange Chinook, we'd be looking at her share soaring into the Jack Harris stratosphere. Which could happen, though I'd rather be more modest...
15 07 16 R.O.
What was once seen as one of the weakest ndp ridings in the country might actually be one of their safest if the provincial results are worth comparing here . but either way its more than likely Linda Duncan keeps this riding .
15 05 19 bza
With a popular NDP Incumbent MP like Linda Duncan and as the Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley received 82% of the vote provincially in this riding, I wouldn't surprised if Linda Duncan's share of the vote actually increases.
15 04 26 Docere
With its intelligentsia/bohemian bent, Edmonton Strathcona was practically tailor-made for the NDP breakthrough of 2008. Linda Duncan will have no trouble hanging on here.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Linda Duncan is very personally popular. Anti-Conservative voters of all stripes supported her in 2011 and will do so again. Relatively easy hold, especially with Conservatives busy trying to deal with other new urban seats that may shift to opposition.

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