Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Heritage

Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:44:15

Constituency Profile


Christie, Kelly

Duchastel de Montrouge, Nicolas

Harper, Stephen J.

Heather, Larry R.

Masters Burgener, Matt

Miles, Brendan

Paolasini, Steven

Zepik, Korry

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2560.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Calgary Southwest
   (207/209 polls, 98.84% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper

   Calgary Southeast
   (2/209 polls, 1.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Jason Kenney


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15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
Before I say anything else, let me clarify: Harper will win here, and win easily.
A previous commenter had mentioned the 'sign war' in a very dismissive manner. I'd say this is something to not-do.
It shows that not only is the local campaign for Harper not as harmonious as it could be, but that the NDP is running a real grassroots opposition and has a serious candidate with a serious and functional riding association behind him. Remember too that the NDP took a plurality in Harper's riding in the provincial election.
And that last part about the plurality might matter if Harper was facing off against a Wildrose candidate. He is not.
15 09 18 R.O
I have seen a few articles online about election signs for harper and ndp in this riding and they seem to have been an issue for whatever reason. but every election he's ran in Stephen Harper has done very well in this suburban Calgary riding
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
This riding could be fun with a country singer seeking the NDP nod http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-liberals-line-up-to-challenge-harper-in-conservative-stronghold
Perhaps we'll get an anti-Harper country album out of it, at least. And if these guys can force Harper to spend even an extra half day in his riding, it's a victory of sorts, as it means he isn't somewhere else.
Note to A. S. I have met Mike Godwin and I assure you it was never his intent to censor serious political science and history. Where fascist or authoritarian policies exist, we ought to point out where they have led. It's Nazi analogy as a first resort that's the problem, not pointing out that Goebbels used identical 'nothing to hide' language to C-51 proponents, or that Hitler and Harper both promised to change the country 'so you don't recognize it'. We ought not to politely let it pass when Canadian figures use identical propaganda messages to those Nazis used.
15 08 07 Sykes
If somehow Conservative support collapsed to the point where they only won ten seats in October, this would still be one of the ten. An easy Conservative hold, and as close to a sure thing as it gets.
15 08 05 Dr Bear
An NDP win here is just plain crazy-talk.
15 08 02 John
Leader of the Conservatives running in this riding.
No contest I say. Conservatives will take this one by a landslide.
15 07 27 RJC
The suggestion that anyone other than Harper could win this seat is laughable.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Don't get excited Dippers. Harper won't take this for granted and will win handily.
15 05 17
The sudden NDP swing in the province is a clear sign Albertians are tired of their blue poison. Does Harper even bother to show up in his own riding at all during the campaign? I bet not. Taking Albertians for granted, as usual. Your day's could be numbered here, Steve.
15 04 04 A.S.
All Godwinisms aside (and really: there's no more efficient way to ensure the endurance of, uh, Herr Harper's Thousand Year Reich than by referring to him as 'Herr Harper'), the 'Heritage' in the riding name is due to the chief local attraction, Heritage Park--or, if one *truly* wants to be anti-Harperland cynical, the Joni Mitchellian 'Tree Museum' for Calgary's discarded/unwanted historical past. Though yes: the name lends the PM a gloss of 'gravitas'. (And I do have to agree: even if it's the locals' own electoral prerogative, there *is* something why-even-have-elections tinpot-esque about every single federal race hereabouts lately having been a CPC giga-giga-landslide. But that's beyond me to handle. Wonder how a Harper vs Nenshi race would turn out, though...)
15 03 29 monkey
Harper's own riding so win or lose nationally, he will easily hold this one. Nonetheless if he doesn't win a majority, I suspect there will be a by-election in this one shortly after and if the new Tory leader doesn't hold a seat in the House of Commons, don't be surprised if this is the riding he/she runs in.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Since this riding is now Calgary Heritage as in 'Heritage Front', I call it for Herr Harpler.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Château-fort conservateur. Harper peut dormir sur ses deux oreilles. Réélection facile.

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