Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Battle River-Crowfoot


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:02:05
 
 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Kelly, Gary
Kowalski, Andy
Sorenson, Kevin
Swampy, Katherine


Population/populations
(2011 census)

 107140


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

3964683.09%
46949.84%
10272.15%
18593.90%
Other 4861.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Crowfoot
   (162/254 polls, 65.87% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Kevin Sorenson
26560
3131
606
1004
Other402


   Vegreville-Wainwright
   (88/254 polls, 33.61% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Leon Benoit
12938
1555
416
844
Other82


   Medicine Hat
   (2/254 polls, 0.50% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
LaVar Payne
135
7
5
10
Other2


   Wetaskiwin
   (2/254 polls, 0.02%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Blaine Calkins
13
1
1



  


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15 08 01 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Post-Orange Chinook, another question might be: who'll get a higher winning share, Kevin Sorenson for the Cons, or Linda Duncan for the Dippers. (How much share did the provincial NDP score within Edmonton-Strathcona boundaries, anyway?)
 15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
This has been the strongest Conservative showing in every election since 2004. There is no question the Tories will win this, the question is will they crack the 80% mark or fall back into the 70s.
 15 03 23 JW
99.232.118.35
While a selected few (very few, if any) ridings in Edmonton or even Calgary may end up being competitive at some point of the campaign, rural Alberta will continue to be solid Conservative territory. Remember, the last time rural Alberta returned a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP was 1968 (two that election, and one of them started with the Social Credits).

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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