Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Saskatoon West

Prediction Changed
2015-04-25 12:13:39

Constituency Profile


Abbott, Lisa

Benson, Sheri

Donauer, Randy

Hart, Bronek

Mitchell, Lois Carol

Pankiw, Jim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (109/154 polls, 73.61% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kelly Block

   (45/154 polls, 26.39% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Maurice Vellacott


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15 10 18 CH
Hem, hem. Before everybody gets too excited about the NDP's chances, let's look at some actual data. A riding poll, done by Mainstreet BACK WHEN THERE WAS STILL A NATIONWIDE THREE-WAY RACE, showed the NDP at 36, the Conservatives at 31 and the Liberals at 25. Since then, the Liberals have gone straight up and the NDP straight down. I'm still giving the edge to the NDP given strong polling numbers in Saskatchewan, and I realize it's only one day to the election so that probably counts for something, but do not be at all surprised if this one turns into a three-way race on election night.
15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
I noticed this riding had fewer than 5 party predictions, and decided to throw my hat into the ring.
If the NDP wins only a single seat in Saskatoon this is the one, it is the strongest of the 3 seats, in terms of NDP chances of victory.
15 09 28 A.S.
Here, unlike Regina-Lewvan, polls are actually showing the NDP *ahead* in one of the new Sask seats drawn to favour the Dippers--though blowing even *this* one isn't out of the question. And a bit of trivia: former MP/mayoral candidate/all-around nuisance Jim Pankiw is making his bid here as leader of the Canada Party. (Who knows, maybe that'll be the readymade 'natural' future political domain of your usual Canada Free Press/Ford National trolls out there)
15 04 02 Fairview Resident
This riding is mostly made up of provincial ridings that the SKNDP held in the 2011 provincial blowout, when the SaskParty - which wins virtually all of the federal Tory and Liberal support - doubled their vote 64/32. The NDP are polling a bit lower in SK than they won in 2011 federally (again 32%, to the Tories' 56% and Liberals' 9%), but the Liberals have also picked up support roughly equally from both parties (if not more from the Tories). If the Liberals do well enough in SK, this could be more interesting, but right now I don't see how the Tories can hold this riding with its significant NDP tilt without an incumbent. I know EPP called at least 1 seat for the NDP in each of the past 4 elections and were incorrect each time, but it has to call this one eventually. Absent an unforeseen NDP collapse (which will require a number of prediction changes nationwide anyway), can EPP actually envision eventually calling this riding for anyone else?
15 03 29 monkey
The NDP has been shut out of the province of their birthplace four elections in a row. With the rural/urban ridings being eliminated and this being their best showing, they will pour as many resources as possible into this to ensure they have at least one MP from Saskatchewan.
15 03 28 Stevo
Poor Nettie Wiebe. NDP candidate in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar in 2006, 2008, and 2011, losing by a hair each time. Finally redistricting makes an NDP victory a near-certainty, but she isn't running. The Conservatives are going to lose at least 3 seats in Saskatchewan and this will be one of them.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
NDP will fight hard for this one. Liberals seem to want to let them, nominating no-name Lisa Abbott. Conservatives are worried enough about other Saskatchewan ridings they will probably concede this one to hold onto all the rest (except Wascana).
It's hard to imagine anyone who actually votes for Maurice Vellacott casting a vote for the NDP, so this will be more of a consolidation of opposition.

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