Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-08-11 18:48:14

Constituency Profile


Bell, Scott

Bigland-Pritchard, Mark

Muggli, Tracy

Waugh, Kevin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 430.12%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (152/164 polls, 93.13% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lynne Yelich

   (12/164 polls, 6.87% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brad Trost


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
As R.O. said below, Harper came to Saskatoon earlier this month.
That's a sign that the Saskatoon ridings may be at risk for the CPC this year. At this late stage of the election, a Conservative leader really shouldn't have to spend time in Saskatoon unless they are close.
So it may be that even though the NDP doesn't have the greatest numbers Nationally, they may be able to win a few of these ridings based on the new boundaries. Mulcair's recent visit may also reflect that internal NDP polling shows an opportunity here.
15 10 19 HAS
To think that this one will go to the NDP is quite a reach. I lived in this area for over twenty years and even I have a hard time remembering it being in the NDP camp. Conservative win.
15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
I noticed this riding had fewer than 5 party predictions, and decided to throw my hat into the ring.
The math currently has the NDP ahead here, as I think the other predictors are aware. It is possible, though, the Tories could gain enough of a lead to change this, but, at this time, that is not the case.
15 10 08 R.O.
This riding should be too close to call , as it voted conservative in 2011 and even after redistribution was most conservative of the Saskatoon ridings even when ndp vote up that year. There is new polls showing the ndp in 3rd and much lower than 2011 nationwide. Harper also came to Saskatoon this week a sign its an area cpc still focusing time in. Saskatoon has been an area where the conservatives have done well although older ridings included more rural areas and ndp vote seemed to be more urban in this area. the ndp prediction doesn't make sense at this time it just seems like a riding that could go either way at this point and mathematically I don't see how a win by Kevin Waugh can be ruled out .
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
With the NDP holding a solid lead in Saskatoon according to the recently released Insightrix Research poll, this riding is near guaranteed to go NDP in October.
15 08 12 R.O.
Although redistributed the past numbers still favour the conservatives in this riding over the ndp , this riding is mostly the old blackstrap riding which the cpc has been winning by comfortable margins in years past. The conservatives do have a new candidate as Lynne Yelich lost the nomination to Kevin Waugh. And I'm not really sure how that effects the race here. Saskatchewan is still a strong area for the conservatives and although the new ridings here give the ndp hope its still western Canada.sure the ndp are doing better but I don't really see how cpc can not at least have a chance of holding onto this one ? But I'd say its too close to call until race becomes clearer .
15 07 15 Jack Cox
Lynne Yelich unexpectedly lost her nomination in this riding and now it's very much an open seat, although Kevin Waugh is a good candidate the other two major party candidates have been campaigning for months and have to figure they are the front runners here.
15 07 14 Wm. Post
Now that the incumbent, lame duck cabinet minister has lost the nomination for this seat, and has been replaced by a high profile, popular city candidate, things are still looking good for the PC's here. This seat was pretty badly butchered by the Tories to their obvious advantage, however no more legal cheating in Sask. seats. This is a high income riding that has the best opportunity for the PC's, and it would have to be a real avalanche for the NDP to snatch it. Liberals not a factor. Should be a hold, and Mr. Waugh will get his pension.
15 06 28 A.S.
In the face of Conservative-collapse scenarios, the one question I have about Saskatchewan in 2015 is whether it'll be the inverse version of Saskatchewan in 1993, i.e. whether a popular premier and provincial government will be enough to salvage ground for a party otherwise going down the tubes nation-wide. That is, leaving aside the ambiguity of it being the 'Saskatchewan Party' rather than something specifically labelled 'Conservative'. Well, it may make the difference in seats like this...
15 06 14 Mr. Dave
The Conservatives are down more than 10% from when they won the 2011 election, while the NDP have seen their poll numbers jump since the Alberta election.
This is one of the completely urban ridings, which gives the NDP the edge over the Conservatives.
NDP gain.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Hard to figure out how this riding will play, assuming Lynne Yelich indeed runs again here this is a predominantly urban riding and she will face the toughest challenge here, all 6 urban ridings are competitive here and the Liberals or NDP may be able to pull off an upset.

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