Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:39:09

Constituency Profile


Bourgeois, April

Goodale, Ralph

Kram, Michael

Simonson, Frances

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (172/172 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ralph Goodale


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15 09 28 A.S.
Goodale's big problem is that the shadow of his enduring presence may be crippling the NDP in the rest of Regina. Otherwise, as for he, himself--the Cons certainly can't brush *him* off as 'not ready'.
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
If this was the old riding, with the rural area still attached...
And if this was another election where the Liberals did poorly...
And if this was an election where the Tories were doing well in Sask...
Then I would actually be predicting a Conservative win here.
However, it is not.
15 08 12 Sykes
Ralph Goodale weathered the storm in 2011 to hang on to this seat, so with Liberal fortunes at least partially on the rise, this riding should be a slam dunk hold for the Liberals. Goodale will lead this riding until the day he decides to retire.
15 08 09 Laurence Putnam
It's not a Liberal riding, it's a Ralph Goodale riding....but he is running again after all....so a Liberal island on the prairie she remains.
15 03 29 Logan Bobetsis
This is a goodale riding, for all the reasons mentioned by previous commenters. Easy hold, Ralph is safe.
15 03 29 monkey
If Ralph Goodale could hold this during a national meltdown, he can hold this with better numbers. The reality is Ralph Goodale has enough personal popularity he could probably win as an independent so as long as he remains MP this will stay Liberal. Once he retires, then his will be up for grabs.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Liberal hold for Ralph Goodale. If he didn't go down in 2011, he will presumably hold on in 2015 now that the Liberals appear to be performing better in Western Canada (eg. recent by-elections) than they did under Ignatieff. Goodale continues to have a high-profile role as Deputy Leader, and the new boundaries give him a couple extra points. The Conservatives also don't seem to be running as strong of a campaign against him here as usual.
15 03 22 Fairview Resident
Ralph Goodale held on by 4% through the 2011 meltdown when his party won only 8.6% in the province. The Tories poured resources into the riding last time to pick him off, but couldn't do it. The rural parts of his riding have now been removed, and he won the portion that forms the new Regina-Wascana riding by 6%. The Redistribution also gives the NDP a better shot of winning seats in Saskatoon and Regina, which forces the Tories to use their resources to maintain seats in the cities. Polls currently have the Liberals at between 25% and 35% in SK/MB versus about 13% in 2011. Ekos, which separates SK and MB, usually has the Liberals above 20% and occasionally as high as 30%. Unless the Liberals collapse again in the province to the benefit of the Tories, Goodale wins easily; even if they do, he could still hang on. This is a safe Liberal seat.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This is a Ralph Goodale riding. Will stay safely within the Liberal fold.
15 03 20 SaskPhoenix
As long as Ralph Goodale is alive n kicking and running for re-election in this riding, the Conservatives can only dream of taking away his lil fiefdom. Goodale is a popular MP in Regina and have had established a solid reputation. I'd bet my money on Coca Cola stocks than on Pepsi, as this riding will remain red for as long as Goodale is MP. Fancy a cold drink of Coke, Regina-Wascana voters?
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Ralph Goodale hold. Best finance minister Canada almost never had. He should get another kick at the can. No one votes out a likely Finance Minister.

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