Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:43:52
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Hlady, Dustan

Juttla, Perry

Lukiwski, Tom

Setyo, Shawn

Thomas, Robert


Population/populations
(2011 census)

76106


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2296360.96%
1225632.54%
14273.79%
10202.71%
Other 90.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Palliser
   (92/212 polls, 50.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Ray Boughen
9549
7193
587
537


   Blackstrap
   (53/212 polls, 24.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Lynne Yelich
6273
2343
286
206


   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (53/212 polls, 22.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Tom Lukiwski
6430
2488
463
263


   Saskatoon-Humboldt
   (8/212 polls, 1.20%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Brad Trost
303
120
21
4
Other9


   Souris-Moose Mountain
   (3/212 polls, 1.15% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Ed Komarnicki
333
94
36
7


   Wascana
   (3/212 polls, 0.33% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Ralph Goodale
75
18
34
3



 


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15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
I noticed this riding had fewer than 5 party predictions, and decided to throw my hat into the ring.
Moose Jaw is a potential NDP win, but unluckily for the NDP, this riding has a large rural voting population, and as such, favours the Tories.
15 09 28 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Ray Boughen retires and Lewvan's uncongenial; so, practical solution for Tom Lukiwski--replace Boughen. As for signs of Moose Jaw swinging away--look, we know the Sask 'rurban' pattern well enough by now, there's enough rural wall o'blue to beat urban orange to a pulp. But still, as insurance just in case the national NDP returns to first-place contenderdom from pending also-ran-dom...
15 09 23 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a new riding and a mix of several other Saskatchewan ridings . conservative Tom Lukiwski is the incumbent and should be able to hold onto this rural riding. Had it existed last election it would of went conservative.
15 09 24 Non profit leader
74.198.198.84
Seems like the Tories have completely taken Moose Jaw for granted. One would be hard pressed to find a Tory sign or have seen the Tory 'candidate' at any local events...or heaven forbid canvassing!
Saw this in the Leader Post today....expected explains a lot:
http://www.leaderpost.com/news/regina/hard+feelings+linger+moose+tory+race/11385803/story.html?rel=815153
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
Moose Jaw itself could be a close battle and wouldn't shock me if the NDP finish ahead there, but the rural parts will go massively Tory thus ensuring they win here.
15 03 16 JW
99.232.118.35
While redistribution makes Regina and Saskatoon ridings very competitive between the Conservatives and the NDP, it also made all (but one) ridings outside the two cities overwhelmingly Conservative. Barring a major Conservative meltdown, this will safely remain Conservative.



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