Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:42:02

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Rob

Jolibois, Georgina

Joseph, Lawrence

Koch, Warren

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
   (151/153 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rob Clarke

   Prince Albert
   (2/153 polls, 0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Randy Hoback


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15 10 19 AR
A riding with a high aboriginal population. Generally, First Nation voters tend to vote for the person, not the party. Last time, the long gun registry was an issue where the conservatives could have earned some votes, that wont be the case this time around. The Conservatives will finish 3rd here.
15 10 11 Mark in Mexico
I've been waiting all campaign long for a riding poll here, in the constituency with the most colourful modern history (having sent blue, red and orange MPs to Ottawa)...but I haven't seen a single poll.
It would seem that Mr. Joseph attracted a lot of 2008 Liberal votes when he ran for the NDP in 2011. I'm guessing a good chunk of those will follow him back to the Liberals, especially with JT's team having established itself as the ABH standard-bearer.
Initially, I agreed with A.S.'s comment and was prepared to see a splintered left fall to the Conservatives. However, regional numbers for the Conservatives are less than awesome, and now Mr. Clarke seems more likely to score in the 30s than in the 40s, and quite possibly in the low 30s. That leaves the door open to another party regardless of how non-blue vote breaks down.
Next door in Manitoba, last month's Probe poll showed Aboriginals breaking from the NDP and heading to the Liberals. If that trend carries over the provincial border, and if Mr. Clarke can bank on his name recognition, then this looks good for the Liberals -- for whom this has historically been the strongest non-Goodale riding in Saskatchewan (which, admittedly, isn't saying much, but it's not nothing!).
So for now it's TCTC, but I see momentum heading the way of the Liberals.
15 10 12 R.O.
This is a tough riding to predict this year , I looked thru the 2011 results in more depth to get a better feel for what happened here last election and why it was so close . the advance results were the most telling Rob Clarke had a big lead in the early votes and ndp still far back. It wasn't till there was an ndp surge final week that ndp came close here. so I was left thinking that under normal conditions the ndp might not do as well here. and liberals also likely to improve on 2011 numbers in ridings like this. Rob Clarke has been the mp of this riding for a number of years and feel he could still hold onto this riding.
15 09 28 A.S.
Oh dear, another apparent 'split left electing a Conservative' tragedy in the making: the NDP's 'natural strength' vs Liberal Lawrence Joseph--though as Gary Merasty demonstrated in 2006, unforeseen miracles can happen.
15 09 10 Nick M.
This riding has a lot of history in my short life of following politics.
From floor crossings (I still remember Chretien showing off the MP to the media) to allegations of ballot stuffing 10 odd years ago.
Traditionally a good riding for the NDP.
If the Liberals and NDP are both somewhat competitive here, than this riding is gonna go Conservative. If the Conservative are going to bleed away any votes, it will go primarily to the NDP. (it's an old Western Canada thing)
looking at last election results, one would jump to the conclusion that this is a shoe in for the NDP. But this riding doesn't follow the provincial poll trend.
I am gonna say Conservatve. They'll bleed off votes to the NDP. But the NDP will split votes with the Liberal candidate.
15 09 03 CGD
This riding should be the most interesting to watch in Saskatchewan. Expect a liberal resurgence in a riding that was traditionally good for them.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
308 calls this a squeaker 53% NDP chance to win, but that's without any consideration of the 2011 NDP candidate now running Liberal and drawing NDP votes, nor of the popularity of the candidate the NDP is running now.
It does appear to be a Con v NDP race though with the Liberals a spoiler. One of the closest in Canada and likely a TCTC all the way to October 19.
15 08 08 R.O.
The odd thing about this race is the candidate who narrowly lost for ndp last time is back but is a liberal , so its true the ndp came close here last time but they don't have that candidate again . that sort of makes this an odd race and unlikely liberal vote stays as low is in 2011. Rob Clarke has now been mp since 2008 and that gives him somewhat of an advantage as he's better known by now . this has been one of the more competitive Saskatchewan ridings but think Rob Clarke will hold onto it .
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This riding was surprisingly close last election. Only a mere 1% separated the NDP and the Conservatives here. Now that the NDP have been polling higher in the prairies this riding looks like a NDP pickup. Their candidate also happens to be the popular mayor of La Loche. The NDP have become competitive in the prairies and if their numbers hold, this is a riding they'll pickup.
15 08 05 PHYSASTR Master
Another on my list of calls to bring the NDP and Cons closer together in the seat total as I think they should be given the consistent federal NDP lead. A few recent polls have pegged the NDP at #1 in Saskatchewan. While I'm not convinced that is the case yet, these trends will at the very least overcome the NDP's 1% deficit from last time. If trends continue like this maybe we should start looking at Moose Jaw going into the TCTC category. NDP pickup.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
NDP are surprisingly polling well here. Their candidate is the popular mayor of La Loche and with the NDP surge, I believe that this is one of the SK ridings that the NDP will pick up.
15 07 14 Wm. Post
Looking to keep my perfect prediction record this year, as I have no affiliation with parties. It's early days, but with the NDP surge, a troublesome PC candidate, a hugely unpopular Lawrence Joseph going for the Liberals this time, and latest polls, I believe this is one of the NDP pick-ups in Sask.
15 06 29 Gillian
The NDP is running popular La Loche Mayor. The NDP almost won in 2011. The NDP hold the provincial seats. Easy NDP win.
15 06 06 Mattock
2011 results saw pretty dramatic geographic variation, with NDP votes dominating in La Ronge and the far north, while the CPC obliterated the competition in the Meadow Lake area.
If Joseph had run again under the NDP banner, he'd win. He's well respected, well-known, and would be pushed over the cusp by the national NDP surge. As it stands, the LPC and NDP are going to split the vote terribly and awkwardly in this riding. Joseph will pull significant (but insuffucient) votes to the Libs, likely retaining the La Ronge vote, while the NDP maintains a significant proportion of its prior vote.
I expect the NDP to dominate in La Loche (the NDP candidate is less well-known, but prominent in her community), retain the northwest corridor, and make solid gains in Meadow Lake, but to fall short of knocking Clarke out.
If either of the 'alternatives' gain significant traction/momentum in Meadow Lake, the riding tips.
15 05 26 Roughrider
Latest update from 308 shows Clarke with a comfortable lead, Joseph is going to have to move traditional NDP voters to the Liberals at a time when the NDP seems to be solidifying their lock on second place nationally. Clarke will benefit from confusion on the left and his work to amend and replace the Indian Act. Prediction Conservative hold.
15 03 29 monkey
Having a large aboriginal population, this is the one rural riding he Tories could lose. But two things will have to happen in order for that to occur
1. A better turnout amongst aboriginals as the Tories should win amongst whites in the southern portion and often aboriginal turnout is low.
2. The non-Tory vote unites behind one party to avoid vote splitting.
If those two things happen, the Tories are toast here. If not they will hold this.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This riding generally votes for the person and not the Party I think all three parties have held this riding at some point. Lawrence Joseph ran as the NDP candidate last time in this riding he's joined with the Liberals and the Liberals have been making a strong Aboriginal push with the amount of candidates they have running who are of that descent. Tough riding to get the vote out in but I think the Liberals win this.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
I would have called this NDP due to Harper's relentless attacks on natives, and this native-heavy riding. The Liberals however are running the 2011 NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph. That makes things interesting.
Could well end up a Conservative hold as the vote splits between those who voted NDP and those who voted for Joseph. I really hate 'races' like this that do nothing but prove the total lack of integrity of the voting system.

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