Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:49:33

Constituency Profile


Chesnik, Laura

Gignac, Jo-Anne

Hardcastle, Cheryl

Momotiuk, David

Schiller, Frank

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2420.54%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (254/254 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joe Comartin


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15 10 08 Dr. Bear
The Liberals may be doing better but they are taking support from both the NDP and the CPC. Remember, much of the soft CPC support is from former Liberals who did not go orange. With a much stronger party leader, I suspect the Liberals (and CPC) will get numbers closer to that of the 2006 election (with the NDP still coming out ahead).
15 10 07 Dino Young
There has never been a Conservative elected in this riding and people see through Gignac's attempt to distance herself from the Harpercons. The Liberal candidate might have been born here but he's done nothing for this community and will most likely move back to Ottawa when he loses. He's going to come in a distant third. Hardcastle is well known in Tecumseh and has connection to Windsor through her Regional service. The voters will support the NDP platform and trust that Hardcastle will continue the Comartin legacy.
15 09 29 Ray
The Conservative Party has managed to find a very attractive candidate this time out in well known councilor JoAnne Gignac. I am noticed lots of signs popping up all over the riding as well as other advertising. The PM has been only leader to visit Windsor so far. The NDP has lost some lustre with a weaker new candidate who is far from engaging. The Liberals are doing better than last two elections time and hurting NDP more than CPC I think. It's going to be much closer than last time, but the Gignac campaign is strongest I have seen in this riding as long as I can remember. But with more than two weeks of campaign left, it will be interesting to watch on election night.
15 08 21 R.O.
Being an open riding this may be more competitive than years past although ndp likely still has the advantage here. Without long time mp Joe Comartin running its tough to say if ndp does as well here. Jo Anne Gignac is a better candidate for conservatives than in years past . liberals seem to focus much less on Windsor ridings than years past when they actually held this riding.
15 08 16 Swellow
I'm surprised the Tories found a high profile candidate to run here. This makes this riding interesting, but we'll see the results on election night.
15 08 14 jeff316
Could you imagine a world in which the NDP take Essex from the Conservatives and the Conservatives take Windsor-Tecumseh from the NDP? With an underwhelming NDP nominee and a decent Conservative one, it is not out of the realm of possibility! But a weak and disorganized Liberal campaign is making it hard for the Conservatives. It'll all depend on whether all those 2008 Liberals that went Conservative in 2011 stick with the Conservatives - if so, this very well might surprise.
15 08 04 A.S.
Given history, for the Cons to get a third of the vote here in 2011 is nothing short of scary-amazing. But as it now stands, even if it's an open seat, they'll only gain it in a Diefenbaker-landslide-scale circumstance.
15 07 12 #ABC51
The Conservatives aren't strong enough to in Windsor to elect anyone when the NDP is holding its own in Ontario.
15 04 30 MB
Jo-Anne Gignac, 10-year councillor in Windsor representing most of the riding in Windsor over her career running for the Conservatives. Jo-Anne received 70% of the vote last time. Backed by former Mayor Eddie Francis and Francis/Dilkens campaign manager Abe Taqtaq. Building on 35% of vote.
Cheryl Hardcastle, single term Deputy Mayor in Tecumseh elected from anger over previous incumbent and defeated in last mayoral race by over 20 points, representing just over 20% of the riding population running for the NDP. Building on 49% of vote from incumbent Joe Comartin.
Frank Schiller, Ottawa resident and Liberal insider since the 90s running for the Liberals. Building on 11% of vote.
Harcastle will retain core NDP vote. But Comartin voters outside of the party don't know her. She doesn't have a profile in Windsor whatsoever which makes up 80% of the riding. She also didn't have much luck fundraising in the last municipal election. It will be difficult for her to retain Comartin's support. A drop of vote share to 39% isn't unreasonable to expect. If 5% goes to Conservatives and 5% to Liberals it's a Conservative win. With Gignac's profile I can absolutely see it.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
Former Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan, who held this area provincially, considered running for Justin Trudeau. However, he announced that he decided to focus on his career in the private sector. Perhaps one factor in his decision was the strength that the NDP now has in this area both federally & provincially. Even though Joe Comartin is retiring, it's probably going to stay NDP unless the Liberals get back up to Jéan Chrétien levels again.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
The Liberals are really dropping the ball here. They have a chance of taking an open seat from the NDP, one that went solidly Liberal during the 90's, and they have not been making much of an effort here. Maybe they're spooked by the collapse of Liberal support provincially in SW Ontario but, as we all know, that doesn't necessarily translate into federal trends. If they get a good candidate, they could still make a splash and flip this red. As for the CPC, it may seem they could potentially win this riding based on the 2011 numbers, however the trends in the polls don't suggest CPC gains. Plus, much of that support is anti-NDP vote (often former Liberal voters). If the Liberals become viable in Windsor, they would tap into that reservoir and we'd see CPC support wane. This is just not fertile ground for the conservatives.

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