Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:39:00

Constituency Profile


Berlin, David

Freeland, Chrystia

Garvie, Drew

Hollett, Jennifer

Jivraj, Karim

Luisi, Simon

Rutchinski, Steve

Waslowski, Jesse

Wright, Nick

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3790.81%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (152/218 polls, 68.73% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Adam Vaughan

   Toronto Centre
   (66/218 polls, 31.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chrystia Freeland


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15 10 19 Docere
University-Rosedale is 2/3 the most solid NDP territory from Trinity-Spadina but the remaining 1/3 east of Avenue Rd. is an NDP dead zone (in contrast Fort York-Spadina, which had a higher transposed NDP vote share has a lot of soft NDP support which came out in the orange wave). Without the Jack and Olivia + the orange wave going on, I don't see how they can get enough support in the western 2/3 to offset the eastern 1/3. The Tories will almost certainly d worse this time to.
However the C-51 issue and Mulcair not being as toxic in Toronto as Andrea Horwath suggests it won't be a Rosario Marchese type collapse.
Thinking it goes roughly: Liberals 44%, NDP 38%, Conservatives 14%, Green and others 4%
15 10 13 Jeff S
With Liberals' rise and NDP fall, this one will likely stay Liberal.
15 10 13 V
Normally, the liberals would secure this riding but the NDP opposition to c51 really resonates in this riding. C51 is actually ranked an important issue in this riding. C51 might be irrelevant to most of Canada, but not this riding. Hollett is up by 6 points in a recent poll.
15 10 12 Chris Richard
From a look at the advanced voters, this will be a strong win for the Liberals and Mrs. Freeland.
A quick look on twitter for the riding shows that they have gotten the vote out much better than the NDP, and this has been one of the strongest Liberal showings I've witnessed in a non-by election.
Having lived in the riding for many elections that is saying something. More so, the NDP voters are typically poor at turning out, so if they needed momentum from the advanced polls from the die-hards.
Hollett is generally disliked by older (30+) voters as the Much Music VJ resume doesn't play well with working professionals.
Game over NDP
15 10 07 JRW
Declining NDP numbers everywhere will at the end of the day make this a comfortable win for Ms.Freeland. I might suggest that NDP supporters will circle the wagons and put efforts into ridings like Parkdale and Spadina-Fort York.
15 10 05 Rick F.
With the recent collapse of NDP support across the nation, residents of this riding will throw their support behind the Liberal Party and Chrystia Freeland.
Most of the residents within the Annex and west end of the riding are going to support the party with the best chance of removing Harper from power.
As the NDP appears to no longer have an opportunity to win a majority - is likely to be hemorrhaging support for the next week - the Liberals will only grow in support.
Half of the riding would never even consider voting for Hollett (the east side) so that was always going to make it a tough battle.
It won't be a landslide victory, but at this point it should be safe to call it for the Liberals.
15 10 04
With the NDP collapse in Ontario as indicated by recent polling, this riding can no longer be called for the NDP. A Mainstreet riding poll released today showed a tie between the Liberals and the NDP, which is probably an accurate reflection of the race. It should be moved to TCTC for the time being, but I think the Liberals have the edge because Freeland is a fairly high profile MP.
15 10 03 Jeff S
Mainstreet has a poll out showing the NDP up by 6. But I agree this should be TCTC.
15 10 02 South Islander
A new Forum poll has Hollett/Freeland at 39/38. The previous poll was taken August 25 at the height of the NDP lead had Hollett way ahead 46/32 (Forum had the NDP at 40 nationally on Aug 24, 3 points ahead of the Libs in ON and 10 points ahead nationally). Since then, momentum has worked against the NDP. They have fallen from clear first to clear third (Forum had them at 28 to the Liberals' 27 the day before the riding poll with the Libs 8 points ahead in ON; today, Nanos and Leger have the Liberals 6-7 points ahead of the NDP nationally and 15-20 points ahead in ON). If the election were today, I'd say this is TCTC leaning Liberal given that Forum seems to show higher NDP numbers and lower Liberal numbers. But if the NDP slide continues, game over.
15 10 02 Dr. Bear
Using the current polling numbers and extrapolating the difference from last time; if all things are equal then the liberals would have 42% in this riding. TCTC.
15 10 02 Monkey Cheese
I agree with Marco -this should be moved to TCTC. A new poll by Forum Research shows that Freeland and Hollett are in a statistical tie at 38% and 39% respectively. That's a far cry from the 14 point lead Hollett had back in August. I believe that the NDP peaked too soon and the Liberals are holding steady at around 30% nationally. The Conservative candidate had 20% and the Green candidate had 3%. Forum is a credible pollster and I think that this needs to be moved to TCTC. Unless Mulcair gets his groove back, I see this being a close race, with a slight incumbent bump for Freeland.
15 09 24 Marco Ricci
With the NDP falling into 3rd place in Ontario and 3rd place Nationally, I think this riding could become TCTC. (Some of the seat projection sites are already showing it as either very close or leaning Liberal).
On the topic of Christine Innes, it's important to point out that Innes & Tony Ianno were accused of acting unethically in the way they ran the riding association and the Liberal nomination here. Some say they had too much power and they had basically controlled the Liberal fortunes here for the past 30 years with one or the other from the same family ending up on the ticket every year. There are those who say Justin Trudeau did the right thing by putting his foot down.
15 09 23 Jason Dumelie
I was on the University-Rosedale Liberal Riding Association and worked full-time on the winning campaigns for Adam Vaughan and Han Dong in Trinity-Spadina (also worked on Chrystia Freeland's initial election and nomination)
Chrystia Freeland is largely perceived by local Liberals as a very poor candidate. Her method of beating Christine Innes for the nomination (getting Justin Trudeau to kick Christine out) was really objectionable). However, even for those of us who stuck by the party and tried to work with Chrystia, she has been a poor MP. Unconcerned with her constituents, MIA when they have needed her - the Ignatieff comparison maybe overused, but she is definitely a poor representative and arrogant despite it. People that vote based on the interests of their local community have a lot of reason to vote NDP.
Most of the local Liberal organizers believe that she will deservedly lose, but the fact is that it's hard to know how will that message will get out there versus the campaign at the leaders level. In large part, that will come down to Jennifer Hollett getting out the message that local matters, and she seems to be doing a good job to get out into the community to deliver that message.
15 09 18 Jeff S
Forum had Hollett with a fairly comfortable lead. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1367/mp-chrystia-freeland-in-second/
15 09 18 Torontonian
Riding-specific poll with NDP ahead at 46% compared to 32% for Libs.
This one is done.
15 09 17 Brendan Parsley
There isn't much doubt as to which of the two is the more experienced candidate. However local this riding thinks it is, national trends are evident here. Chrystia Freeland is an internationally renowned thinker of both income inequality and the on going situation in Ukraine. That said, Jennifer Hollett has amassed a formidable ground following that has been knocking on a lot of doors in alignment with the growing NDP momentum, as well as leveraging C-51 to their maximum advantage . Lawn signs don't win elections, but the west side of the district is heavily orange.(Though there has been some contention about the practice of the NDP lawn signs, as they have put them on many of my neighbours' and others houses without consent). That said, there is certainly greater support in the west end. The question is how many of these lawn signs actually vote on election day. Everyone in Freeland's Rosedale votes year in year out, but aren't as vocal about it (at least on their yard), TCTC.
15 09 18 C Wilson
If people vote for the local candidate then The NDP take the riding. While both she and her Liberal opponent are Harvard-educated, Ms Friedland's dispassionate campaign style interwoven with occasional slashes at her rival does little to endear or encourage ground-swell loyalty. On the other hand Howlett's jingo-istic party enthusiasm is a little over the top for some of her riding constituents. Howlett's got a chunk of Chow's former riding north of Dundas and that is political capital in the bag. A few words in Mandarin/ Cantonese and Howlett's home free.
15 09 14 Ken N
I've been living in this riding for the past 30 years and have pretty much voted Liberal my entire life. Things are going to be different this time around. It's as much to do with my disappointment in the leadership of Justin Trudeau and the choice of his candidate over the voice of local Liberals, as it has to do with how impressed I am with the NDP candidate. I've had volunteers from her campaign knocking on my door with the kind of enthusiasm I used to see in the liberals at one time - a time when I used to be dismissive of the NDP as a fringe party. When your soldiers on the ground are passionate about their candidate, it speaks volume of the persons character and the level of respect they show their volunteers. I value that notion of respect in politics - it's rare but shouldn't be discounted. I'd like to see more on their position on a few relevant policies like immigration but overall, a well run campaign with enthused volunteers is a good signal of a solid grassroots team and I'd like to see that energy carry over into our representative in parliament.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Liberal support has rises in Toronto at the expense of the NDP. Various polling sites are suggesting this riding to be a toss up. TCTC.
15 09 02 OgtheDim
For 24 hours, the NDP thought they had a smoking gun when an article came out claiming a certain viewpoint was held by the Liberal candidate's manager.
When it turned out that the article was written by a guy who was only 2 weeks before working on the NDP campaign, and didn't actually tape the conversation, that kinda went bust.
Not that anybody is really noticing anything yet. Way too early to call this one. People will be making decisions near Thanksgiving. Until then, a lot of sound meaning nothing.
15 08 29 MGK
To elaborate on NGU's point, there were two specific factors I observed in the Vaughan/Cressy by-election (from the vantage of a canvasser), that are not operative right now:
(1) [the bigger effect] The Liberal candidate had been a popular city councillor for the previous 7.5 years, while the NDP candidate was largely unknown, a 1st-time candidate. I met many people who told me they like the NDP, they had voted NDP in the past, but were going to vote for Vaughan. They never suggested that they had discovered any great love for the Liberal party, just for the individual candidate. I don't see Chrystia Freeland catching on the same way, and in any event party preference, as opposed to candidate preference, is stronger in a general election than in a by-election.
(2) [a smaller but still noticeable effect] The by-election happened at the same time as the provincial election campaign, and many voters confused the two. Recall that a lot of traditional NDP supporters in Toronto were mad with the ONDP (or with Andrea Horvath). With no simultaneous provincial campaign, the Horvath albatross won't be around the NDP's neck.
I do expect Freeland's results in Rosedale to be similar to the by-election -- possibly stronger, because of incumbency, or maybe a little weaker because of the Conservative national campaign. But nobody ever expected the NDP's path to victory to run through Rosedale. In the western 70% of the riding, don't expect the by-election to be a harbinger of the coming vote.
15 08 29 Mark
The interesting thing is that, other than a few pockets, Toronto has never been terribly fertile for the NDP. Toronto is full of people from elsewhere in Ontario, and all those people came from places where the NDP were no hopers, or crazy socialists, or working class rubes. The NDP may do well elsewhere in Canada this time around, but Toronto will be largely Liberal. Hoillett will be lucky to crack 32%
15 08 28 OgtheDim
So a piece came out indicating a nasty view point was held by the Lib candidate's campaign manager. And then it turns out that piece was written by a guy who was working for the NDP candidate just 3 weeks ago and is being vigorously denied. Nasty stuff and the election date is two holidays away still.
Thankfully, most people are not listening yet. I trust no polls done in the summer. We'll get a handle on things by about Sept 28th. Until then, this is all sound and fury signifying nothing. TCTC in this riding.
15 08 25 NGU
Here is what some people do not understand. Weird stuff goes on in byelections. They provide an opportunity for people to remind a party not to take them for granted. Let us also remember that when Chrystia Freeland won the byelection it was not by a huge margin and the redistribution favours he NDP here. In addition at the time of the byelection the federal Liberals were riding high in the polls, they are not going to do nearly as well here now that they are sitting in third. This will go for Jennifer Hollet and the NDP by a substantial margin.
15 08 24 CGD
No way this goes NDP. This riding is cut from 2 ridings that were solid Liberal in by-elections. Chrystia Freeland will take this riding barring a huge NDP surge in Ontario.
15 08 15 Annex Resident
Chrystia Freeland has a high profile in the riding, in media circles, and within the Liberal Party. She has been campaigning locally and also across Canada with other candidates and her incumbency will boost her along with the recent increase in the polls for the Liberals in Ontario after Trudeau's strong performance in the first debate. Hollett doesn't have as much name recognition and doesn't have the advantage of incumbency. I'm calling this one for the Liberals.
15 08 12 CJJ
Too close to call. Chrystia Freeland is a good fit for this riding but this will be a very close race.
15 08 12 Pulsetaker
FWIW the Forum poll cited below had the NDP in first place across the City of Toronto and the Liberals leading across the GTA because they are stronger and the NDP weaker in the 905 suburbs. Given that this seat is already notionally NDP by a wide margin and the NDP is running ahead of its 2011 levels - Jennifer Hollett should win. She is also an excellent candidate while Chrystia Freeland has turned out to be an invisible dud. The NDP is even picking up a lot of support in Rosedale because the Liberals want to increase personal income taxes on on income over $150k while the NDP does not!
15 08 11
Mark this under most likely prediction to change to 'To Close to Call'. National trends are unknown yet and won't be until after Labour Day. The NDP/Liberal swing is in play yet and won't settle until closer to Thanksgiving. In many ways, people just are not listening yet.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
I'm puzzled as to why this site is calling competitive ridings in a close election year like this with more than 2 months to go until the election. It would seem to me that most ridings should be left as TCTC until we get closer to October.
The Forum Poll conducted in the GTA after last week's Leader's Debate also showed the Trudeau Liberals in 1st, so Liberal numbers may be going back up in Toronto.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Hollett has been very active and energetic. Freeland isn't as strong an incumbent as one may think, but she can still win. TCTC.
15 07 23 MGK
I previously predicted the Liberals because I thought Freeland would be a stronger candidate. I'm no longer so sure. Hollett (if she wins) won't have as important a role in her caucus as Freeland (if she wins) will have in hers, but Hollett is a much more effective ground-level politician. She's more outgoing, personable, and connects with people. She's been very visible and meeting people at all the neighbourhood events; Freeland, when she is out in public, isn't talking much one-on-one. On balance, I'm now seeing this race as a Liberal-NDP bellwether, and based on current polling that means NDP.
15 07 16 Naythan
I'm a student at U of T and this is where I live the eight months a year I'm at school. Considering I will be in school when the Oct election hits, this is also where I will vote. I have followed all three candidates and have seen Hollett and Jivraj posting about canvassing and attending events. I have not seen much from Freeland yet. I feel the active Con candidate will eat some of Freeland's support up unless she gets snapping quickly. Too close to call between NDP and Lib.
15 07 12 ottawa99
While I agree that Freeland is the more fitting candidate for areas like the Annex and Rosedale, these communities strike me as areas in which people are more concerned about the policies being proposed by the parties than about local candidates. Given that the NDP has been polling very well among those with higher levels of education in recent months, current trends seem to strongly favour the NDP here.
15 07 08 seasaw
This is one safe Liberal seat. Wouldn't be surprised if Freeland got 50-60% of the vote. Half the riding's blue Liberal/red Tory, the other half is competative Lib-NDP. In my other posts, I've mentioned don't compare federal and provincial elections, now A.S is comparing federal to municipal elections ? Sure Wong-Tam won municipally, but don't forget Case Ootes, Tom Jakobek and Rob and Doug Ford, three right winger also won municipal elections in ridings where the Conservatives didn't even register on the radar screen. Now this NDP surge of late, is a bit too early to call Orange Wave II, you have to remember Harper's been under fire from all sides everyday that he's been PM, you have to remember that the Tories have been attacking Justin like there's no tomorrow. Mulcair's been getting a free ride and if these numbers hold when the campaign starts, you'll see an all out attack on Mulcair from both the Liberals and the Tories. Then what'll happen ?
15 07 02 ML
With the NDP's stock rising in Ontario I recently changed a few predictions in Toronto to the NDP column, including Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York, but I still can't put my finger on University-Rosedale. Despite increasing momentum for Hollett, including a glowing article in the Globe about the NDP's rising fortunes in Downtown TO, I am reluctant to call this riding 'a sure thing' for the NDP. The new riding, which includes Rosedale and the Annex, seems like ideal turf for Freeland. Rosedale is a hotbed of Blue Liberals ? bourgeois wine and cheese types who are who are hostile to the NDP's calls for social justice but also cold to the crude prairie populism of Harper conservatism. Then you have The Annex, a community that despite its legacy of activism has become rife with new money, high-consumption Bay Street types. I think neighbourhoods like Christie Pits, Harbord Village and Little Italy will be the true battleground. Students, young professionals and aging first generation Portuguese and Italians make up these pockets and the ability to perform outreach to these constituencies could make the difference on the 19th.
15 07 01 HFoster
It's hard to see Rosedale voting NDP, but the part of Trinity-Spadina merged into this riding could turn it orange, if they vote en-masse for Hollett. The Conservative candidate could play spoiler here if he runs a strong campaign, and could take away enough Liberal votes for the NDP to win by a narrow margin. But unless I see any indication of a strong CPC campaign in this riding, I will call it for Chrystia Freeland.
15 06 28 A.S.
At least until Mulcair started soaring and Justin started swooning, the 3-out-of-2 breakup of Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina looked like another 'rurban Saskatchewan' NDP-foiling-in-spite-of-itself redraw in utero (with Adam Vaughan's byelection being the final blow)--and University-Rosedale being the most notorious result, thanks to an earlier redraw proposal (which proposed to split the 'Gay Village') being vetoed on behalf of Rosedale being awkwardly spliced into the northern half of Trinity-Spadina instead. Sure, it's still notionally NDP; but I'd really like to see the 2004/6/8 figures within these boundaries to get a whiff of how bad it looks for the Dippers--to say nothing of how the Annex's learned-class champagne socialism has shifted relatively Lib-red-ward these past few fed-prov elections. *And*, Chrystia Freeland has all the insufferable hallmarks of a perfect Laurentian Elite figurehead to cement such a grand coalition of Rosedaleans, Yorkvilleans, Annexians and so on. Of course, I'm presently speaking of the pre-C51, pre-Alberta-election, pre-Mulcair-surge status quo--now what looked like an inevitability is seeming a lot dicier. And in case Rosedale still appears to be fatal NDP kryptonite, keep in mind that its voters had no problem supporting Kristyn Wong-Tam in her municipal reelection landslide...
15 06 12 Mr. Dave
It appears that Liberal support is on a steady decline, while NDP support is increasing at the same time.
Should this trend continue, I can see this particular seat going NDP instead of Liberal.
15 06 01 VJR
308.com has just flipped this riding from Liberal to NDP, with the NDP rising in the polls at the Liberal's expense. Jennifer Hollett will get a lot of financial and volunteer help from HQ to defeat Chrystia Freeland.
15 05 17 Stevo
Jennifer who? MuchMusic what? I'm in my 30s and I've never heard of her, nor have I watched MuchMusic in something like 12 or 13 years (about the time it switched from actual music to reality shows). Maybe a few early 20-somethings will know who she is, but how many of them actually vote? The NDP will likely take this but not because of the star power of a little-known personality from a has-been television station.
15 04 30 Gillian
With former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett running, the NDP should take this riding back easily.
15 04 25 Docere
Chrystia Freeland has the 'advantage' of incumbency in just 1/3 of the riding. Still, I would give the advantage to the Liberals here. The TC part of the riding is very weak NDP territory (14% in 2011), and it's unlikely the NDP will get 58% again in the Trinity-Spadina part (no Jack and Olivia this time). Either party can take this, however, so I'm withholding a call for now.
15 04 19
Although this battle is being pitched as a tussle between two neighbourhoods, I think its more a tussle between 2 rival local machines. GOTV will be key here.
With one proviso: strategic voting is very possible here, if the Tories look like squeaking back in nationally.
15 04 05 MGK
This is a competitive riding, as the NDP has long had strong roots in the Annex, but strong enough to outvote a big Liberal margin in Rosedale? Probably not, at least with a front-bench Liberal candidate who, if her party can win nationally, will have a major cabinet portfolio. If the Liberals falter nationally, it'll be close, but as things look now, my money's on Freeland.
15 03 31 MH
What is certain is that neither the Conservatives nor the Greens will take this constituency. That leaves the Liberals and NDP. The winner may depend on the answers to these questions: Will students sign up to vote? How will the student vote break? Given what we know and don't know, it's much too early to predict the winner here.
15 03 29 Jason
Unlike the redistributed Toronto Centre, I don't think the Liberals have this in the bag. This area is more NDP friendly.
Jennifer Hollett is a strong candidate for the NDP and can appeal to this ridings student demographic more than Linda McQuaig. Mulcair tacking left these days and putting Trudeau on the spot can help in ridings such as this.
That being said, Chrystia Freeland will be tough to beat.
15 03 29 Fairview Resident
The 2011 results make this riding look like a potential NDP win because Olivia Chow really ran up the score on the Liberals (winning by over 20,000 votes). The Liberals have since taken Trinity-Spadina both federally and provincially by 19% and 16% respectively. In the old Toronto Centre, Freeland survived a nasty byelection campaign from the NDP and even managed to increase the Liberal margin. Since then, she has been a solid and visible MP. She will easily hold University-Rosedale.
15 03 29 ottawa99
I disagree that this is more Liberal than Toronto Centre-a quick look at the 2011 redistributed results in both ridings says otherwise. I also think the urban Toronto trend of rejecting the NDP needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The evidence for this mostly comes from the 2014 provincial election, an election in which Andrea Horwath isolated and turned off progressives throughout central Toronto with a populist, centrist campaign. Thomas Mulcair, from what I've seen, is leaning much more heavily towards the interventionist approach that tends to appeal to Central Torontonians. Although Freeland's incumbency will certainly be an asset in this riding and make for a very close race, I'm predicting an NDP win here.
15 03 28 monkey
With Chrystia Freeland running in this one and being one of the Liberal star candidates, I would give the Liberals the edge that being said an NDP win is still possible if they do well amongst students or if Rosedale swings heavily towards the Tories (note the Tories don't stand a chance at winning the riding but they could do well in ultra rich parts and that would come at the expense of the Liberals)
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This new riding is far more Liberal-friendly than either the old Toronto Centre or Trinity-Spadina ridings. Given that both went Liberal in the 2011 election and the 2014 byelection respectively, it's unlikely this will go anything but Liberal. Threehundredeight is currently giving the Liberals 44% here to the NDP's 30%. The NDP will be focused elsewhere to really concern themselves with this seat.

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