Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 23:48:03

Constituency Profile


Foulds, Andrew

Hajdu, Patty

Harvey, Richard

Hyer, Bruce

Skaf, Robert

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2650.70%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Thunder Bay-Superior North
   (214/223 polls, 97.43% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bruce Hyer

   (9/223 polls, 2.57% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Carol Hughes


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 Marco Ricci
It was announced last night that Justin Trudeau is coming to Thunder Bay today, so it appears that the Liberals may be in contention in 1 or 2 of the ridings in this region.
With the potential for a Bruce Hyer Green vs. NDP vote split, and with some votes remaining with the Cons, it's possible for the Liberals to win here depending on how the vote breaks down. So I'm not sure any of the parties can be written out.
15 10 17 CF
I drove the entire length of this massive riding along highway 17 yesterday. The Green support in terms of signs on private property is very apparent even outside of Thunder Bay. The fact that Trudeau was in TBay for a whistle stop tour today shows he thinks both TB ridings are winnable. The strength of the Green vote is going to make this a VERY close result. The winner could be from any party and could become MP with support in the low 30s. But I still think overall the Greens will take it.
15 10 17 CC - Stop Harper
Nanos research, 308.com, and CBC Poll Tracker all have this riding going NDP. Poll tracker looks at the national parties best and worst case scenarios in seet projections. The Green Party has only 1 seat in each scenario which is clearly that of leader Elizabeth May. So clearly, Hyer is not poised to win a second seat for the Greens. With this in mind, those who want to stop Harper should consider taking their Green or Liberal votes and vote Andrew Foulds and the NDP. All the strategic voting sites and vote swap sites are recommending that an NDP vote in this riding is the best option to defeat the Conservatives. In the 2011 election, 18,334 votes went to the NDP, 10,894 Conservative, 6,117 Liberal and only 1,115 Green. The NDP were a clear 1st, but scary to see the conservative base coming in second in this riding. There is a real fear here that vote splitting among socially progressive, centre-left minded Green, NDP and Liberal voters may result in a conservative win in this riding. Bruce Hyer as the floor-crossing incumbent is sure to increase Green numbers somewhat. The Liberals are also likely to see somewhat of an increase this time as the party reestablishes itself. Increases for these candidates will not win them the seat, but may take enough of the centre-left votes to cause a 3 way split that results in a conservative win. Do we really want Thunder Bay Superior North to be the lone Blue Blotch on the electoral map of Northern Ontario? Polls are showing that the NDP candidate is our best chance for a non-conservative win in this riding. I urge all Liberals, Greens and even socially progressive Conservatives who have a social conscience, to consider voting for Andrew Foulds and NDP in order to STOP HARPER this election!
15 10 16 Craig Hubley
Patty Hajdu has no chance so this is NDP versus Green. She could consider emulating Green Constantine Kritsonis' approach and endorsing swaps for a Liberal in a close race elsewhere. http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/green-candidate-frees-voters-to-leverage-their-vote---by-voteswapping-532993181.html
Or, emulate Cheryl Thomas in Victoria and just drop out and free the voters entirely. Interesting that Kritsonis mentioned this and Victoria as the races he intended to swing Green with swaps. Hajdu could swing it.
The impact of either endorsing vote swaps or dropping out is hard to predict. Especially in a big riding where it's hard to contact people, likely last minute coalitions like this are more effective in urban areas.
15 10 14 Steve
Bruce Hyer is one of the best constituent MPs in the House of Commons. With the NDP declining popularity I think Hyer will pull through. Elizabeth May has made several appearances here which will help his case. The 308 predictions are wrong, for they take the provincial averages and apply them to each riding. Hyer will receive upwards of 35% support and hold for the Green Party.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
York Centre Green candidate Constantine Kritsonis endorsed vote swaps to elect the Liberal in his riding, and specifically called for reciprocity in this riding and in Victoria BC. Not sure what impact it has, but the friendlier Greens and Liberals get, the more swaps happen, the easier it is to swing both ridings hard. Obviously NDP and Cons steamed about this.
But it's just one more wild card in a weird race of entirely wild cards.
15 10 12 CC
The North Shore will vote for Andrew Foulds and The NDP. Foulds is the only candidate that has spent an extensive amount of time visiting all the communities and talking to constituents. One only has to meet Andrew and hear him speak to know he is the voice the region needs in Ottawa. He has conviction and credibility. Bruce Hyer is delusional if he thinks the region will vote for a green candidate; he crossed us once when he crossed the floor after the last election. Sure there are lots of green signs around, but this is not a reflection of Hyer's support. The Green Party of Canada is spending lots of money in the riding trying to hold this floor-crosser's seat - This won't convince people! The NDP is sure to be part of a coalition government following this election - We don't need a Green MP with no voice in parliament. This is NDP territory!
15 10 09 no
15 10 10 DI
I don't think TBSN is in the bag for the NDP. I don't like Bruce Hyer, and particularly object to him leaving his party over the gun registry, but I've been surprised at the number of Hyer signs all over the Thunder Bay portion of the constituency. My neighbourhood has traditionally voted Liberal (even last election) and I'm seeing at least as many Green signs as Liberal ones. I'd be shocked if Hyer doesn't get at least 20% of the vote. He might win, but even if he doesn't he could have an impact and I'm not sure who he hurts in the end. Is he taking from the Liberals, NDP, or even the Conservatives? I also think that Justin Trudeau has appeal in the riding, and the type of campaign the Liberals are running is a good fit for Patty Hajdu's background. Depending on how the vote splits, I don't think it's impossible for any of the four candidates to win, with as little as 27-28% of the vote.
15 10 08 MB
Patty Hajdu isn't receiving credit in these posts for the significant number of Liberal signs displayed on lawns. Bruce Hyer as a Green candidate will take a lot of votes away from Andrew Foulds. Patty as an individual will also attract a lot of potential NDP voters. As the Shelter House's Executive Director she would have made a good NDP candidate herself. She has more individual credibility than either Bruce, as a floor crosser, or Andrew, as the provincial NDP candidate and then the local Macintyre Ward candidate. He was voted in to local council with a big margin, but I think people are tired of him not committing to one thing. I don't think it's just wishful thinking. Based on all the factors above, and the apparent upsurge for the liberals provincially, Patty has a very good chance at being elected in this riding.
15 10 06 NJam101
Bruce Hyer may take away some of the NDP vote but I feel that Andrew Foulds will win. I'm also pretty sure that the Liberal vote will rise substantially in the Thunder Bay portion. It wouldn't surprise me to see Foulds win with about 35-40% of the total votes. The rest of the electoral district will likely be heavily NDP.
I wish I could say I knew more about Patty Hajdu but I have heard good things about her. I'd say she has a small chance of winning if the conditions are right.
15 10 02 R.O.
This riding and Sudbury should be moved to too close to call , there both ridings predicted to go ndp but don't have ndp incumbents running this election. And considering ndp numbers are down in Ontario they both appear to be more competitive than before. This riding especially has an odd past as Bruce Hyer was elected as an ndp mp but then left caucus and now running as a green candidate. Another reason I question the ndp prediction here as Andrew Foulds was the Ontario ndp candidate here in provincial vote and lost riding to long time liberal mpp Michael Gravelle . there is also a descent conservative candidate here as Richard Harvey running again and he did well here by northern standards for a conservative candidate .it just seems like a riding that is too close to call .
15 10 03 807Fish
I don't live in TBSN riding, but I've been in TBay a few times and I don't know that this is quite in the bag for the NDP. Bruce Hyer looks to have a LOT of support based on lawn signs. In residential areas, there are entire blocks where there are only Green Party signs. Andrew Foulds is a definite second. ThreeHundredEight has Green support at around 6%, but that's way too low. Even if Hyer gets pummelled, he'll get significantly more votes than that. That number is based on extrapolating provincial numbers. The Chronicle Journal has had a poll up on their site (yes, unscientific) since the start of the campaign that currently shows GRN - 37, NDP - 35.5, LIB 15.6 and CPC 11.9. Based on the Chronicle Journal poll, the anecdotal lawn sign evidence and the fact that Hyer's decision to vote against the gun registry holds some weight, this could be a surprise Green pickup. If nothing else it should be considered TCTC at this point. In the absence of any riding-level polling, the evidence seems to point to a much higher level of Green support than has been given credit for.
15 09 11 CC
This riding should easily go to the NDP this time. The vote in the last election was an NDP vote - not a Bruce Hyer vote. Bruce crossed his constituents by getting elected NDP and then leaving the party and voting contrary to all his campaign promises. He is a lone wolf who is concerned with his personal agenda rather than the best interests of the riding as a whole. Now he thinks the riding will vote green on the Hyer name alone - - not likely to be even close. Andrew Foulds is a clear front runner in this riding. He is a well know teacher and long standing city councillor with a proven track record of results. He is personable and has been actively campaigning throughout the riding.
15 08 26 R.O.
The race here is somewhat unusual so I'm not even making an official prediction yet . however I doubt very much Bruce Hyer would only get 6% here I really wonder who came up with those numbers ? its likely he'll do better than past green candidates in this area as he is the incumbent and being one in northern Ontario can be a big advantage however he doesn't have a very big green base to build on. The ndp and liberals both have a lot of history in this riding and have elected mp's here over the years. One candidate so far not discussed is Richard Harvey he came in second in 2011 with almost 30% of the vote when he was conservative candidate . he is running again this year and likely to be a factor here once again . I'm not really sure who has the advantage here yet I'd say too close to call
15 08 25 KS
Bruce Hyer does have some local popularity. He seems like a solid constituency MP who chose his constituents over his party line.
However, that is not enough to overcome the fact that this is an NDP-leaning riding. Hyer is no superstar and under the Green banner I doubt he can crack more than 25% of the vote share.
Traditionally, the Liberals would be competitive here - but I feel the Trudeau campaign will be focusing on other parts of the province.
My prediction: NDP 38%, LPC 24%, GPC 20%, CPC 17%
15 08 24 Magy
308 blog is showing an overwhelming lead in the polls. I think it's safe to call this one for the NDP.
15 08 20 Dave Lang
Taking everything into account, I don't think Hyer's name is as strong as he thought it was when he decided to cross the floor to the Green Party.
You have to be a really strong name to be able to change the mind of voters who are set with their party of choice. I'm a firm believer in voting for candidate before party but it's a pretty big leap to say that a majority of NDP voters will jump to the party that got only 3% in the riding.
I foresee the NDP getting less votes because of the Hyer name, but it'll still end up staying in the NDP fold.
308's Current Numbers
NDP 53% CPC 20% LIB 19% GRN 6%
15 08 14 jeff316
Yech. Ewww. Ugh. What a collection of underwhelmers. Bruce Hyer, always a flaky candidate elected based on the Liberal collapse in northern Ontario, grew disenchanted with the demoralizing nature of being an MPP but not with the ego-boost of running in elections. Andrew Foulds is a career politician that failed to impress running for the NDP in 2014 and current excites exactly no-one. The Mayor of Nipigon has caught on to a brooding conservativeness in northern Ontario, but is probably one or two elections too early to capitalize. Patty Hajdu's slight ethnickyness might have helped if this was 1960s Thunder Bay, but today she's just another below-average candidate. Poor T-Bay. Who wins? Who knows. Anyone by Hyer.
15 08 14 Craig Hubley
Not writing off Bruce Hyer yet. Elizabeth May will be spending a lot of time here, if only to show future star candidates and floor-crossers how strongly she supports her caucus, even if they disagree from time to time.
Guelph is the only other Ontario seat where the Greens have a serious shot, and there is now basically no good Green prospect east of Ontario. Gord Miller in Guelph won't need much help, and appearing a lot with May might actually hurt him with the swing voters he is trying to attract. Parry Sound-Muskoka nominated someone who *didn't* get 20% provincially, so I can't see that as a more attractive long term build than to hold here.
I figure the Green Party of Canada can focus on at most four or five seats in 2015. If they're smart, this is one of them, and that's why it's TCTC.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
Greens can only win by focusing national effort on specific campaigns. When Hyer was the only Green prospect in Ontario, he stood a far better chance of getting sufficient attention and support (volunteers, informal friends-and-family vote swaps, formal vote swaps, donations) to win.
However the entry of star candidate Gord Miller in Guelph changed that. It's not impossible that the Greens could muster so much enthusiasm for a targetted campaign in Guelph that they consider it won by say September and shift their attention to save Hyer. But that's a long shot as it takes a lot of leg work to win in these huge ridings. If Miller doesn't achieve early traction, the effort will likely go to Guelph not to here. And that would hand this seat to the NDP. Which is my prediction for now.
As many Green supporters are swing or former NDP supporters, and the threat in other ridings like Guelph or Yukon is the Liberals, preventing Liberal gains may be more important to them. Thus if it's a choice of where your volunteer time, donation, or vote swaps go, Thunder Bay Superior North may not be the highest priority target compared to those very winnable ridings.
15 08 04 Matt A
I have a hard time seeing another Green MP elected, but here is definitely a place it could happen. I lived here a number of years ago, and Hyer was well regarded in the community then. Given how isolated Thunder Bay is from the rest of the country, it's has quite an independent streak and that's reflected in how Hyer left the NDP and joined with the Greens. This'll be interesting to watch on election night.
15 08 03 A.S.
Worth noting, too, that Foulds is of illustrious-enough lineage (son of a former MPP and provincial leadership contender)--even if that wasn't enough last year to overcome the pro-incumbent Wynne wave provincially. And, this *is* resource-based Northern Ontario, an even less prepossessing base for Green potential than Blair Wilson's seat was in 2008 (though TBSN has actually had an above-average Green history for the region, largely due to Laurentian U's presence). It's only in allowance for any chance of 'Wynne Liberal' bandwagoneering that I'll withhold a prediction--then again, given past history it could be the *Grit* vote the Hyer Greens might be stealing, more than the NDP's...
15 08 03 Justin
Greens are not popular in Thunder Bay. Hyer should fair no better than most incumbent running as an independent.
15 08 02 Mr. Dave
For Bruce Hyer to get re-elected again, two things would have to happen...
First, NDP support in Ontario would have to be very low, and Second, Liberal support would have to be very high to create a vote-split scenario which would allow Hyer the chance to win.
Neither of those circumstances is occurring at this time. In fact, the opposite is happening; higher support for the NDP and lower support for the Liberals.
The NDP will re-take this seat.
15 08 02 Expat
Election underway!
This riding has mostly escaped notice, but is a fairly easy prediction update to move things forward. Every projection has it going NDP by a huge margin (CBC, 308, etc). Northern Ontario will mostly go NDP, and this has never had a base of Green support. A relevant bit of Canadian political history is the last time an MP switched to the Green party was Blair Wilson in West Vancouver?Sunshine Coast?Sea to Sky Country of BC. He went from almost 40% support as a Liberal, to only 14% as a Green in 2008 despite spending the maximum spending limit to try to get re-elected. If it can't happen in coastal BC (the strongest area for Greens), it won't happen in Northern Ontario.
On twitter, even Hyer is saying that Mulcair will be the next Prime Minister: https://twitter.com/brucehyer/status/625368636044234752
15 07 12 #ABC51
Hyer did right by his constituents in a riding with a very atypical profile.
Just like Bernie Sanders curried the favour of people who support responsible gun use in Vermont, so too will Bruce Hyer do the same in a region of the province that has little use for either gun registries or right-wing politics.
15 04 13 NJam101
Way too difficult to predict who will win here. I would give the edge to the NDP candidate right now but we don't know who that will be. The NDP vote will probably be especially strong in rural areas, meaning outside T-Bay. The Liberal candidate Patty Hadju who certainly has a chance but it will probably depend on how successful Trudeau and the LPC national campaign are. She would more than likely win if the Liberals have a huge surge in support.
The big question is about Bruce Hyer. Will being party of the Green Party help or hurt him? I believe that if Elizabeth May spends a lot of time here campaigning it could be a huge boost for him. I can't see Hyer getting much more than 40% of the votes but it could get enough to win. Somebody mentioned about how areas that depend of natural resources for the economy normally wouldn't vote Green. That seems true but doesn't apply to the majority of the population here and especially in the City of Thunder Bay. T-Bay's top employers are the hospital, various government departments and agencies, school boards, the university and college. The top private employer is Bombardier. If Hyer can convince voters that he is the anti-Harper candidate then he can win.
15 03 29 monkey
Definitely won't go Green Party as this area is too much of a resource driven economy but Bruce Hyer should help the Greens so the question becomes which party does it hurt most. The NDP has the edge but the Liberals could conceivably win here too.
15 03 27 Carleton Student
Hyer is a popular MP who put his riding first over his party. He will get elected as a green.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
I'm surprised that the NDP still don't have a candidate here. The Liberals have had one in place for several months. I would have thought the NDP would want to get to work trying to beat Bruce Hyer for joining the Green Party! The Liberals have an anti-poverty activist running here who may also appeal to NDP voters. Justin Trudeau was up here for a visit with Patty Hadju a couple months ago, and the Liberals may focus on re-connecting with their Franco-Ontarian base in Northern Ontario now that Trudeau is leader. The Conservatives also have some support in this area, but it's hard to know how competitive they will be. Do they have a chance at winning if their is a vote-split in the NDP vs. Green vs. Liberal contest?
And while Bruce Hyer has the potential to do better than the average Green candidate since he is an MP and Deputy Leader, it will probably be harder for a Green to win in Northern Ontario than in British Columbia. There really isn't the same base of support, so if Hyer wants to win he will have to hope he can win by coming up the middle. Perhaps the pollsters will do a riding poll during the election and give us some clues!
15 03 23 ML
This could be the only four-way race outside of Quebec. Definitely a riding to watch.
15 03 22 j c
This is a solid Liberal/NDP region. Hyer still has a good deal of work ahead of him to convince the region of the importance of an independent voice in parliament during a minority government. I see a close NDP:Liberal split as different factions of the city try to figure out who to replace Hyer with.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Bruce Hyer is in a spot. Liberals are running Patty Hajdu who runs a shelter and so could be expected to convince a few NDP votes over her way. The NDP is probably arguing hard about who should take him on.
Greens will be swapping in to support him, enticing Liberal and NDP voters with the prospect of multiple seats elsewhere available for the cost of trying to unseat Hyer here, and guilting them with wasting effort on an anti-Harper MP.
This race is too strange to call. It may come down to how much time Elizabeth May personally spends in the riding, and how many vote swaps are left over after securing May's, Frank de Jong's, and anywhere in BC they seem to be breaking through. Hyer is probably fourth priority after that.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster