Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:48:31

Constituency Profile


Clouthier, Hector

Gallant, Cheryl

Klietsch, Stefan

Lehoux, Jeff

McCarthy, Dan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 961118.70%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (219/219 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Cheryl Gallant


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15 10 16 Oliver May
Hard to see who will beat Gallant. I suppose this is one of a few ridings where an Independent has a real shot at winning. Hector Clouthier could be helped by a Conservative bleed and tactical voting.
I am surprised that it has had no traffic in a month. Still, if any Con candidate can lose a race, Gallant has got to be a contender.
15 09 10 Scott
Clouthier jumping in ought to clinch it for Gallant. Who knows who finishes second. He finished 2nd last time with under 20% of the vote, and may well again. I can't see Gallant running a worse campaign than last time, and can't imagine her falling under35%, or with Clouthier, the NDP, and the Liberals splitting the rest of the vote, anyone else rising above 30%. I doubt that it will be that close, but Clouthier has probably made this the safest Conservative riding in the province.
15 09 09 Bryan
Former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier announced on September 7th he will be running as an Independent. It is entirely possible that Clouthier will win in a vote split as both the Libs and NDP will gain votes. Constituents may finally be tired of Gallant's reputation as 'the dumbest MP in Canada'.
15 08 26 Bob C
This is a dyed in the wool blue riding. Only a reform conservative stands a chance here. Even with Cheryl competing for the Dumbest MP award, now that Rob Anders is gone, she will still win a landslide. See http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/egan-five-candidates-id-like-to-see-on-my-porch for the latest Cherylisms.
15 08 14 Craig Hubley
308 calls this 96% Con win with the Libs slightly ahead of the NDP despite recent Ontario surge. No clear leader means a badly split vote, usually, as stalwarts of either party waste most of their time attacking each other.
15 07 05 #ABC51
The Conservatives would need to have a truly awful election to lose this sort of riding. They're not nearly there yet in Ontario.
15 06 21 JK
With the gun registry gone, Cheryl's lost a major part of her historic platform and people are taking a second look at her mailouts and reports from Parliament, which have become more and more erratic and nonsensical. This is not going to be won by the leaders here, this will be a riding won by the individuals and Jeff Lehoux may be that individual. Progressives are leaving the Conservative party (five progressive cabinet ministers in a row) and thus loosing Harper credibility amongst progressive conservative voters. The Prime Minister hasn't been in the riding since 2006, and Mr. Mulcair has no interest of coming here while the NDP's candidate has proven to hide himself from public events and refuse to take a principled stance on anything from guns to gay rights (snubbing the pride parade along with Cheryl) and avoiding all questions posed about his party's efforts to enact the gun registry. People might not love Trudeau but they hate Cheryl...particularly the veterans, the scientists, the engineers at AECL and the military men and women who used to support her have all found themselves ignored and mistreated. It's time for change. She's had her day, and is past her expiration date.
15 06 16 seasaw
Not one, but two Liberal predictions here ? This was one of the two Ontario ridings that elected an Alliance MP in 2 in Y2K. It used to be one of the safest Liberal seats, but that was mainly doe to the late Leonard Donald Hopkins. Since his retirement, Conservatives have continuously taken over 50% of the vote, though Hector Cloutier did win in '97, but if you added the Reform/PC vote it would've exceeded 50%. Justin Trudeau's plan of silencing the right wing of the party may win him support in places like Beach-East York, Toronto-Danforth, Spadina-Fort York and York South-Weston, but not here. Btw, if Len Hopkins was alive today, he would not be able to run for team Trudeau.
15 05 24 A.S.
Keep in mind that Gallant's decreased share in 2011 was because of a second-place independent run by Hec Clouthier, the former Liberal MP she defeated in 2000--ironically, the maverick oddballness which defeated Hec in Y2K allowed him to shave a bit off 'Gallant populism' 11 years later. Thus, it's misleading to read too much vulnerability into Gallant's apparent lost ground. And Jeff Lehoux is the antithesis of the Gallant-vs-Hec populist dynamic, i.e. he'd really require a big sunny non-alienating Justin aura to break through in this turf. Could still surprise--after all, onetime Liberal strongholds like Pembroke have been noticeably low in turnout lately, almost as if past supporters are biding their time before they have a reason to vote once again. But will it be enough?
15 05 15 Brendan Edge
The Liberal Party nominated Jeff Lehoux to be their candidate in the fall election on May 6th. Lehoux is a retired corporal who was injured in Afghanistan ten years ago and has worked overseas as a humanitarian, specifically in Africa where he proved instrumental in negotiating agreements and obtaining fresh water for tens of thousands.
While defeating Cheryl Gallant will not be an easy feat, Mr. Lehoux is certainly a candidate to watch. His military experience comes as a breath of fresh air to soldiers and veterans frustrated by their representation by Mrs. Gallant. At 38 he is the approachable and can relate to the younger generations yet has the ability to reach out to the older generations as well. Demographics which may not be easily reached by Mrs. Gallant or the NDP candidate [MacCarth?]both of whom are quite a bit older.
Mr. Lehoux is intelligent and intuitive and far more importantly honest, something that longstanding politicians rarely are able to achieve. He is willing to listen to those who have a different viewpoint than his own and reach a happy medium. He has already done much to build an excellent team amongst the demographics in the riding (youth, senior, women, men, scientists, nurses, soldiers, teachers, etc). This could be a riding to watch.
15 05 10 BWE
Cheryl Gallant, the Conservative incumbent won the riding with a majority of the popular vote, although a decreased share of it from previous elections; aided by the 20,000 people who chose not to vote. However a huge component of her base supporters voted for her due to the Tories stance on the gun registry which, despite her accusations, Justin Trudeau has stipulated will not be revived. The Conservative's lack of movement on further relaxations of firearms legislation could prove to give some of her support to the Libertarian Party; particularly after the Supreme Court overturned the mandatory minimum on gun crimes (which the Conservatives brought in) and had been seen to imprison law abiding gun owners merely caught up in red tape which persisted through the Conservative reign.
It's a riding to watch for the Liberals, certainly, due to their hotly contested nomination contest which originally have five prominent candidates standing and resulted in the election of Retired Canadian Armed Forces Corporal Jeff Lehoux, who was injured in Afghanistan and has worked as a humanitarian since.
With the growth of Arnprior and Renfrew as feeder communities to Ottawa and continued economic struggle, higher than average unemployment rate, the Canadian forces presence and Gallant's voting record in the Commons there is growth potential for the Liberals for sure.
Although it is far from definitive of any clear lead, Cheryl Gallant has become conscious of the threat the Liberal Party could prove to her; for the first time in her parliamentary career her Twitter account has followed a Liberal and that Liberal is Mr. Lehoux. She has never followed a competitor on Twitter before. Nor has she had to contend with her growing infamy in Ottawa.
15 04 28 R.O.
Its true this riding has been a conservative stronghold in recent years , it had however been mostly liberal before that but either way . Cheryl Gallant has solid roots in the riding and keeps getting elected here and don't really expect that to change.
15 04 26 Docere
Renfrew his shifted significantly rightward over the past 15 years. In 2000, the Canadian Alliance won this. And in 2003, this was the only pickup for the provincial Tories in an election where they lost more than half their seats! This was also their best riding in the 2014 provincial election.
Cheryl Gallant may have caused embarrassment for past CPC national campaigns, but she is popular in her riding. Renfrew has a large military presence, and according to Vote Compass this was one of the three most supportive ridings of the war in Afghanistan.
15 04 06 Stevo
Just a correction to Dr. Bear's comment. This seat never voted Reform in the 90s. It voted Alliance in 2000 and Conservative ever since. Reform only won a single Ontario seat in 1993 (Simcoe-Grey, I believe) and none in 1997.
Editor's Note: In 1993, Reform captured the seat of Simcoe Centre, which consisted of the City of Barrie, the towns of Alliston and Wasaga Beach, the Village of Cookstown and the townships of Essa, Innisfille, Sunnidale, Tosorontio and Vespra.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
An extremely conservative riding, so much so it voted Reform back in the 90's (one of three Ontario ridings to ever do that). The Liberals will win in Deep River but lose miserably everywhere else.

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