Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:51:17

Constituency Profile


Chisu, Corneliu

Downward, Pamela

Navarro, Anthony Jordan

O'Connell, Jennifer

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 960.20%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Pickering-Scarborough East
   (117/209 polls, 55.88% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Corneliu Chisu

   (51/209 polls, 25.26% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Chris Alexander

   (41/209 polls, 18.86% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Erin O'Toole


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 13 Monkey Cheese
I think that Pickering-Uxbridge can be called for the Liberals now. 308 has consistently had them winning here throughout the campaign. The Conservative incumbent simply hasn't been visible or noteworthy and has been skipping out on debates. The Liberals continue to rise in the polls, including Toronto and the 905. Chris Alexander is set to lose next door and I expect Chisu to do the same. Liberal gain.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Extrapolating a result using current polling numbers shows this going Liberal by a significant margin. Time to call this for team red.
15 09 07 Brian Lonsdale
This riding should be at least 'Too close to call' or even as a 'Liberal win'.
Both 'tooclosetocall.ca' and 'threehundredeight.com' are showing the Liberals winning this riding with a probability rate of 81% or better. Considering that 'threehundredeight.com' has the Conservatives winning only 38 seats in Ontario, a number of reevaluations need to take place concerning the predictions for Conservatives in Ontario otherwise, if the 'threehundredeight.com' prediction for Ontario holds up, the Election Prediction Project is starting with at least 6 incorrect predictions.
15 09 01 SPP
I don't see how this riding can be called for the Conservatives when all swing models point toward a Liberal win. This is traditionally Liberal territory that will return to the fold around 30% Ontario support; currently the Liberals are polling consistently in the low-to-mid 30s. I think a Liberal win is likely and this race should at least be returned to the TCTC column.
15 08 13 Dr Bear
I joining Monkey Cheese in pointing out that the CPC prediction is a premature call (I would also argue that Ajax for the Liberals is a premature call as well). In addition to 308's current stats, LISPOP has this riding listed as TCTC.
15 08 13 Monkey Cheese
I realize I'm double posting, but I'm seriously questioning why Pickering-Uxbridge is being called for the Conservatives already. This is a premature call. The Liberals have received a bump in the polls after the first debate and as of this post have a 58% chance of winning according to 308. It's also still early in the campaign, so a swing riding like this one should really be moved to the Liberals or TCTC at this moment. This isn't Whitby or Durham. It is by no means a guaranteed Conservative seat.
15 07 26 Monkey Cheese
Although redistribution might help the Conservatives here, the incumbent is a backbencher who is not particularly active in the riding. The Liberals have the polling numbers on their side and if enough people in the riding desire change, then the Liberals are the best choice here.
If I had to predict the outcome of Durham Region I'd say that The Conservatives will keep Whitby and Durham, the Liberals will gain Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge, and the NDP will gain Oshawa.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Chisu gets a more Conservative riding than neighbouring incumbent Alexander. If Alexander wins his (not a sure thing), Chisu will definitely win here. CPC hold.
15 07 11 A.S.
Chisu won narrowly 2011; but that was vs McTeague and McTeague's strongest polls are now outa here. So, what could be a more efficient way of salvaging a vulnerable 'accidental' freshman than by taking the Pickering remainder and springing this deep-into-rural-exurbia asparagus stalk of a seat from it? Not that that'll work, either; indeed, the transposed votes further the case for Liberal targetability (McTeague's vestigial strength; Mark Holland's vestigial strength; even the fact that in 2011's battle for second place in Durham, Uxbridge remained Liberal while the rest of the seat went with the Orange Crush flow. Though it was more of a NDP-Lib draw in the 2012 byelection.)
15 07 03 DarkFlare
Another hard one to call in the Durham Region. Like Ajax and Whitby, I predict a close race between the Liberals and the Tories.
Although I do agree that the lack of Dan Mcteague and the addition of Uxbridge will cause trouble for the Liberals, I don't think we can right that off. I personally am even inclined to lean Liberal on this one. (but not without one heck of a fight!)
Chisu won by merely 1200 votes (that's tight for an election!) which shows the volatility of this riding going into the next election. He's not a Minister and never appeared at a debate in the last election. That makes it hard to have a lasting impression with fickle voters. If the Liberal's candidate is a strong one, the riding will likely flip.
15 05 28 R.O.
This riding is more favourable to the conservatives than old Pickering - Scarborough east riding and without high profile liberal candidates like Dan Mcteague or Mark Hollands . its more likely to stay with conservative Corneliu Chisu than swing to another party .
15 05 17 Durham Guy
With the Conservatives and Liberals running neck and neck in Ontario, this is a riding that will join the red column. The MP here is a backbencher who has accomplished nothing, so the incumbency bump will not help the Conservatives here. This will be a solid Liberal gain.
15 03 28 monkey
Cornelius Chisu would be toast under the old riding boundaries, but the new ones are far more favourable. Scarborough where the Liberals are strongest has been removed while Uxbridge which is largely rural has been added thus while the Liberals will probably do well in the southern more suburban parts, I suspect the Tories will dominate the northern parts which are more rural so it comes down to margins then. If the Tories have a strong second in the southern parts and win big in the north, then they can take this but otherwise it will go Libeal.
15 03 24 JC
Corneliu Chisu was a fluke MP that snuck in un-expectedly during the 2011 election. He's chosen to run in this riding which it a better fit for him, I expect it to be close but the Liberals will pull it out.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster