Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:38:35

Constituency Profile


Carrie, Colin

Dempsey, Michael

Fowler, Mary

Gershuny, David

Marimpietri, Tito-Dante

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2940.56%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (213/256 polls, 83.91% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Colin Carrie

   (43/256 polls, 16.09% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pat Perkins


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 19 prognosticator15
45-49% may be too optimistic for Cons, but building on my previous post, I suggest a close race, a Liberal coming second and a narrow Cons hold.
15 10 17 JRW
This will be a hold for Dr.Carrie. Interesting even with with Unifor pouring resources into Oshawa and Essex, that the NDP will not win either riding. Cons get between 49-45%.
15 10 17 Monkey Cheese
Still not sure where this one goes and this is another riding where I'm surprised we didn't see a riding poll for. With the Liberals surging in Ontario, taking away votes from the Conservatives in the 905, there is a chance that the NDP could slip through the middle. The same thing happened provincially. The NDP bombed in Toronto, but did well enough in the 905 to take Oshawa away from a long time Conservative incumbent. This riding is also heavily dependent on the auto industry and there are many people who fear that the TPP will have a negative impact on the industry and there is even more uncertainty now that we won't see the full details of the TPP until after the election. I've recently been hearing union ads targeting the Conservatives. My final prediction will be a very narrow NDP gain, buoyed by TPP fears and a stronger Liberal numbers eating away Conservative support.
15 10 16 Craig Hubley
It's a minor and likely un-noticed factor in this race but when endorsing vote swaps to favour Jo-Ann Roberts in Victoria (at expense of the NDP), Green Constantine Kritsonis did shout-out to Greens in Essex and here in Oshawa to similarly endorse vote swaps for the NDP here to get Greens Gord Miller in Guelph and Mary Lou Babineau in Fredericton over the top in each.
No sign yet of any NDP candidate emulating Kritsonis' move (read it here)
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/green-candidate-frees-voters-to-leverage-their-vote---by-voteswapping-532993181.html but any such move by Guelph or Fredericton NDP could swing Greens to NDP here and win this one. In Ontario, Green and NDP supporters are probably the only ones who can stop a Liberal majority. And it seems to do it they have to buddy up.
15 10 15 Spx
I am still debating back and forth on Oshawa. I am not sure how good the NDP is holding up here, I think at this point the Conservatives are below 35% and the Liberals just below 30%. Is this going to be enough for the NDP to squeeze this one through, I am not sure. Stil at one point we will have to call it for one party or another, so I think it will be close and I would by the technical numbers still call it for the Conservatives. The high voter turnout we are seeing in advance polls on the other hand, should favour the NDP. Ok, so I'll finally call it for the NDP.
15 10 15 prognosticator15
This is now a three way race. Bleeding NDP vote to the Liberals combined with an effective Liberal candidate create a possibility of taking some votes from incumbent Conservative as well. Cons should rely on strength of their existing base. The outcome will depend on the last minute vote, still TCTC.
15 10 14 C.E.
The Conservatives are losing a lot of ground to the Liberals in Ontario, perhaps as much as a quarter of their votes (40+% to 30+%). As I see it, the Con ceiling right now is c. 40%, and the NDP floor is c. 35%. For now it is tctc. But any further strengthening of the Liberals may push this into the NDP column.
15 10 13 Carleton Student
Say what you will about the Harper campaign, its no where close to as stupid as the 2014 Hudak campagin. PCPO losses are not worth a cent on Monday. Even Mulcair could win a majority against Hudak.
15 10 12 SPP
There is no question that the NDP ship is sinking and they are heading for a substantially worse showing than last election. But Oshawa is a different story. In the last provincial election where the ONDP ran a terrible campaign and the Liberals won a majority, Oshawa still switched from blue to orange. At heart it is still a labour-centric NDP town. As such, I expect the TPP and the threats to the auto sector to spur the NDP to a narrow win here against the national trends. On Election Night this will stand as one of the few impressive NDP gains amidst a see of Liberal GTA pickups.
15 10 12 Spx
This is quite a hard riding to predict. I have the feeling it will revert to the 30/30/30 split it had in the old days. This split should still favour the Conservatives though with a few % points ahead of the NDP and Liberals.
15 10 10 seasaw
I'm predicting CPC hold here. Dr. Carrie's been the Mp here since 2004, NDP is sinking like the Titanic, so at the end of the day, they'll probably be reduced to their pre Orange Wave level. The Liberals'll pick up a lot of seats in Ontario, but not seats like this where they lost by 43%.
15 10 08 Cassius
One of the few ridings that I will be commenting on, and only to say that I do not know. I would caution against projecting this riding based on a mathematical extrapolation of the 2011 result. That was the case of an demoralized Liberal campaign that had written off ridings like this early on. The Conservatives may be under 50 percent, but probably just barely. My guess is that neither Opposition party is strong enough here.
15 09 30 Cody TK
I know this was just changed from NDP to CPC, but even if the polls revert to the 30/30/30 race we were seeing until this week, I still see the conservatives coming up the middle and winning this riding. The LPC campaign seems to be much more active in the riding than the NDP, I have had multiple mailings from TDM and none from Mary Fowler. There are also a similar number of lawn signs on private property for liberals and NDP (and far more liberal signs on public property). Also, TDM was a city councillor for a long time and has a lot more name recognition in the riding than Mary Fowler. The point I'm making is the NDP and liberals are going to be much closer than they were in 2011, and while the conservatives aren't going to do as well in this riding as they did in 2011, I can easily see the conservatives win here with as little as 35-40% of the vote and the liberals and NDP sharing 55-60% between them, most likely the NDP slightly stronger.
15 09 30 Monkey Cheese
A couple weeks ago I said that this would be a NDP gain, but it appears that they've peaked too soon. Right now I'll say that this is TCTC. I'm honestly surprised that there hasn't been a riding poll for this riding and other Durham ridings outside of Ajax. There is a chance that the Trans Pacific Partnership deal could anger enough auto workers in the area to vote against the Conservatives, but we'll have to see if that becomes a more important issue than the niqab.
15 09 27 Marco Ricci
With the NDP being in 3rd in Ontario in all the current polling, some seat projections have Oshawa leaning back to the Conservatives.
Could still be TCTC here.
15 09 28 JRW
Election 308 has given recent Conservative estimates on winning as 69 then 71, now 77%. I look upon this riding with interest as a resident of a neighbouring riding. Someone talking about the 'union influence' is certainly living in the past, this passed about 30 years ago. My son belongs to Unifor and neither he nor most of his co-workers support the NDP. This prediction should certainly be changed, nevertheless I predict a Conservative hold in the Shwa.
15 09 08 Stevo
Little doubt that after so many frustratingly fruitless attempts, this is the election that the NDP will finally defeat the Conservatives here.
15 09 01 Jason
This is one of the few ridings in the country where the NDP will benefit from a stronger than average Liberal candidate.
Looking at the last three federal election results in Ottawa, the vast majority of the declining Liberal vote went Tory. If the Liberals can pick up some disenfranchised Tories, it can push the NDP through with just 40% of the vote.
Moreover, Mulcair's centrist NDP should appeal in an riding become more upper middle class since the Broadbent days.
15 08 30 Crimson Tide
The overconfidence of the NDP supporters is their Achilles heel. They attribute the French provincial victory to the strength of their candidate, when in reality it was a combination of the implosion of Hudak conservatives and the non-factor of the Liberal candidate. All the anti-Hudak vote went to French and the NDP. That certainly will not happen in this federal election. Firstly, the Liberals are running a high profile former Councillor who received 10,000 votes on a 25% turnout just last October. The NDP candidate has never ran for office, let alone been elected to any position previously, and the Conservative who road in on the Harper wave is now struggling to keep his head above water as Harper is more of an anchor this time. This riding is certainly too close to call and its result will depend on the relative strength of the national campaigns and any anti-Harper wave that lifts either the Liberals or the New Democrats. Additionally, a lot of soft Cons who are uncomfortable with Harper and the scandals are going to migrate to the Liberals not the NDP. It will make for an interest last few weeks.
15 08 26 R.O.
I think a lot of people are trying to read too much into the provincial results here and the Ontario ndp was running in a much different election and dynamics much different. The federal ndp still have potential in ridings they hold provincially but it doesn't mean they'll win every riding in Ontario they hold provincially. I haven't been to this riding specifically but have seen a lot of conservative signs around Ontario so far this election . and Ontario is not BC or Quebec this election it's a much different race. The 905 area around Toronto is often competitive and this riding has often been a very close riding. Colin Carrie has been mp for a number of years and a lot of campaigning still to go , don't feel its clear yet who will win this riding , I could still see it going either way.
15 08 25 seasaw
It's a bit premature to make an NDP prediction here, it's been 25 years since they won here. Yes, they did manage to unseat a popular longtime incumbent in last year's provincial election, but this isn't last year's provincial election, and how often does the lightning strike twice ? Sure they're riding high in the polls right now, but what's going to happen 5-6 weeks from now, if Mulcair keeps fumbling and Trudeau and Harper step up their attacks on him ? The probable scenario will be that the NDP will drop back to thei pre-Orange Wave level of support, in which case, not only will they not do well in this riding, they will also lose most of their seats in Ontario.
15 08 22 Mr. Dave
I predicted back in March that this riding would be returning to the New Democrats, and with the NDP polling even higher now in Ontario and support for the Conservatives lower still, Mary Fowler will be the next M.P. for Oshawa.
NDP pick-up!
15 08 17 Orange Tory
Given recent polling data and commentary from ThreeHundredEight.com, it appears that the NDP are poised to take Oshawa. No doubt the provincial election result will help in the swing here. I don't see the Liberals in play - the only time in recent memory when they were competitive was during the Chretien years when the CON vote split between Reform/CA and the PC's.
15 08 14 jeff316
'A-HA!' went the NDP. 20 years too late, sure, but French's provincial NDP win shows that the proof is in the mustard. The federal NDP has finally figured out that the way to win Oshawa is to run someone that reflects the people that predominate - jjjjjust-average-earning white-collar workers from the middle-est of middle-class that moved to Oshawa to own a nice-sized suburban home. Mary Fowler, come on down.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Update to my previous post. With a competitive three pronged competition in Ontario and the redistribution actually helping out the NDP here, I think that there is a renewed chance of the NDP taking Oshawa. The Liberals have nominated former long time city councillor, Tito-Dante Marimpietri as their candidate. I'm not sure how this will impact the race and he could be a wildcard. However, Harper's approval ratings are spiraling downwards and unions will be significantly backing the best ABC candidate. The NDP should be able to finally pull this one off.
15 08 06 Josh
The provincial election swung the momentum in this riding. If polling trends continue the way they are until election day, this will be an easy NDP pickup.
15 07 26 Monkey Cheese
With Ontario currently a threeway tie, Oshawa is a riding that the NDP have a realistic shot at picking up. If an unknown teacher can take down a popular, entrenched Conservative incumbent provincially I think that they can repeat that process federally. Unions and GM workers will be heavily backing the NDP here as a result of anti-union policies by the Harper government. That should give them the edge.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Strong union influence will make this a tough one. Conservative advantage, but TCTC.
15 07 03 DarkFlare
I'm actually inclined to agree with the others. The Durham Region is not known to deviate from intense red/blue battles but clearly Oshawa has become an acceptation. The NDP have surged in support and the Tories will have to fight to keep up, and the liberals to stay relevant.
The current polls show NDP leading 44% to the Tory 40% to the Lib 9%. Clearly the NDP have replaced the Liberals in Oshawa and should lead to an interesting match up.
15 06 28 A.S.
Actually, Jennifer French's 2014 provincial victory was a remarkable multipronged sock to the eye for a whole lot of 'strategic voting' myths. First, the myth that the NDP couldn't win a general-election Tory seat, much less defeat an incumbent Tory, let alone a two-decade-incumbent like Jerry Ouellette. Second, the myth that suburbanization and 'changing demographics' and the declining influence of unions, GM, etc meant that Oshawa was shifting terminally away from the NDP, ergo they shouldn't bother trying any longer etc etc (in fact, French won polls solidly *throughout* the riding--even in those supposedly terminally out-of-reach suburban polls that've now been distributed away). And third, that the Tory vote was solid and could only be defeated by 'uniting the left'--yet believe it or not, even as French pulverized Ouellette, the 'no-hope' Liberal share actually *rose* over 2011!!! Sure, Oshawa's privileged by actually *having* an NDP history; but still, this was almost like a microcosmic foreshadowing of Notleymania in Alberta. Maybe it's best to leave it at that, except by way of noting that as of mid-2015, the (nationwide, at least) federal pattern's one of Harper underpolling Hudak and Mulcair outpolling Horwath in 2014. (Oh, and the Liberals may still be a sleeper factor with a local councillor running--but for all we know, it may echo 2014 in further hollowing-out the Con vote rather than stealing a NDP gain.)
15 06 24 bza
The provincial win was a big indicator that after years of slowly rebuilding support for the NDP, the 'shwa is ready to go orange once again.
The other big factor going for Oshawa is the boundary changes which go from a structure favoured for the Conservatives to something that works much better for the NDP.
The old Oshawa riding took out a chuck from taunton all the way down to king street that has had decent support for the NDP historically. While the northeast part of the riding went all the way to Winchester road which is mostly rural or a new affluent and suburban part of the city.
The revised boundaries only go as far north as Taunton road and place the part of Oshawa that was formerly in Whitby-Oshawa back into the riding.
It makes sense geographically to have an Oshawa riding configured this way, and demographically it should make it even easier for the NDP to win.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
Agreed that Oshawa is the NDP's best and only chance of a seat in Durham. They took it provincially from a popular incumbent and if the polling numbers continue to be in their favour, then this is a riding that they'll pick up on Election Day.
15 05 28 R.O.
This riding is somewhat of a wildcard to try and predict. It could be a seat the ndp make gains in as they have done well here and hold provincial riding. but at same time its an area the conservatives have done well in and Colin Carrie held seat for a while now. also there has been 2 by-elections in neighbouring ridings that stayed conservative and ndp didn't do much in either. So its tough to say what might happen here until actual campaign takes shape .
15 05 17 Durham Guy
Oshawa is probably the NDP's best chance at a seat in Durham. It is a working class city that was once Ed Broadbent's riding. It is a prize they have long desired and I think with the right candidate they might be able to take this. They took the riding provincially, defeating a popular incumbent with a candidate with no recognition, so will they be able to repeat that success federally? They have a shot.
A big wild card could be the possible closure of the GM plant in the riding. If it does close, or has massive layoffs that means the jobs and livelihood of thousands of people will be impacted and not just GM workers. If a closure is announced I think the NDP will benefit because of their pro-union ideology. Even the very threat of a closure could convince enough workers and small businesses in the riding to support the NDP.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
It's hard to know at this early stage whether the NDP is in contention here. They did win provincially last year, but the Hudak PC's were weaker than their Federal cousins.
The Hudak PC's received only 31% in Ontario in 2014, whereas the Harper Cons received 44% in 2011. Even with the Liberal vote in Oshawa dropping to single digits under Ignatieff, the Layton NDP was still not able to come close here. In order for the Mulcair NDP to win, they need the Harper Cons to go down and for the Liberals to take votes away from the CPC so that the NDP can win.
Btw, the new NDP candidate will be Mary Fowler, a teacher. She beat Mike Shields for the NDP nomination. Shields had run for the NDP before, so we will need to see how Fowler performs in the months ahead.
15 03 28 monkey
While this could go NDP like it did last provincial election, its not the union town it once was and is now more of a 905 type suburb. As such unless the Tories do something really stupid like Hudak did, I think they will hold this one although the NDP will probably have a strong second place showing. Lets remember the implosion of the Liberals won't necessarily favour the NDP as many commuters who are Liberal are Blue Liberals who would go Tory before they would go NDP.
15 03 27 Mr. Dave
With the recent boundary changes more favorable to the NDP, and the provincial election results that saw Oshawa return to the NDP fold after more than a decade, the ABC movement gives the federal NDP their best chance at winning Ed Broadbent's old riding back.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster