Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mississauga-Erin Mills

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:31:41

Constituency Profile


Bilek, Michelle

Dechert, Bob

Khalid, Iqra

Roblin, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 660.14%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (193/195 polls, 99.98% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bob Dechert

   (2/195 polls, 0.02% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lisa Raitt


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15 10 15 William Bishop
You can't be calling ridings like Oakville and Peterborough as going Liberal and think that this riding is still in contention.
Liberal rise will float all Mississauga boats.
15 10 15 Jason
With the Liberals are polling 15-20 points ahead of the Tories in Ontario. No riding in Mississauga can be deemed TCTC anymore.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Done! Liberals win. With polling numbers as is and Hurricane Hazel supporting Trudeau, watch all of Mussissauga turn red (just like the provincial race).
15 10 12 Monkey Cheese
Like with Brad Butt in Streetsville, Bob Dechert is simply not a visible enough MP, unless you count flirting with a Chinese spy being visible. Popular former mayor Hazel MaCallion's endorsement of Justin Trudeau and strong polling numbers in Ontario is enough for me to call this one for the Liberals.
15 10 10 Jeff S
With Liberals rising fortunes in Ontario, and Hazel McCallion's backing, this riding should flip.
15 08 29 Robert
Don''t underestimate the strength of NDP candidate Michelle Bilek. She has become an experienced campaigner and is well known in the riding. Her percentage of vote has steadily increased in the last few elections. The increasing number of angry Conservative voters seem much more willing to park there vote with her and the NDP than the Liberals. Don't be surprised in a change election to see Bilek heading to Ottawa.
15 08 16 A.S.
A 'not as Con-strong as it looks' case: it's only the luck of the draw that Dechert won his seat an election in advance (and more because Omar Alghabra lost it), thus giving him an 'incumbent advantage' boost in 2011. North of the 403, in particular, it's mostly the kind of nineties-and-noughts mostly-ethno-boomburbia that was typically fallow land for the Cons until Jason Kenney started noticing--not exactly what one pictures as 'compatible' territory for a middle-aged conservative white dude like Beijing Bob. If Erin Mills stays in the fold, it'll be through inertia; if it escapes, it'll be through counter-inertia--nothing more, nothing else.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Polling is neck and neck right now between the Libs and Tories here, but I agree with Jack Cox that the scandal involving a Chinese spy will hurt Bob's chances here. It will be close, but I see this one being a Liberal gain.
15 08 04 R.O.
A surprising fact Rob Dechert has been conservative candidate in this riding since 2004 and only candidate to run for merged party since then in this riding. A lot of the other ridings in peel have been thru multiple tory candidates but not this one . the liberal mp he beat is also not running in this riding but another in Mississauga. As mp since 2008 he has somewhat of an advantage here as his opponents aren't that well known.
15 03 28 Jack Cox
Beijing Bob is not going to win in this riding, this is a guy who got embroiled in a scandal involving him flirting with a woman who was potentially a chinese spy. The Liberals are running an impressive Pakistani Lawyer named iqra khalid and with the polls the way they are she should win this riding.

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