Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:41:04

Constituency Profile


Chelliah, Senthi

Easow, Jobson

McCallum, John

Russell, Joshua

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1870.49%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (119/172 polls, 75.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McCallum

   (53/172 polls, 24.84% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Kent


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15 10 10 Marco Ricci
prognosticator15, I wasn't referring to internal polling below (I don't work for a political party and don't have access to any internal polls).
I was referring to the same seat projections that other people are referring to -- the ones made on the polling aggregate websites like 308 & Too Close To Call (and there are also some on The Globe & Mail, The Toronto Star & Le Journal De Montreal). These are based on the mainstream pollsters that you referred to.
That's why I used the phrase, 'if seat projections are accurate', although perhaps I should have specified more clearly that I was referring to the official polling projections.
15 09 29 prognosticator15
I suggest election calls are not made based on internal party polling (as presented by Marco Ricci below). Such polls are as questionable in methodology as the NDP poll in Papineau predicting Trudeau's loss. Importantly, they are not even expected to be accurate the way national polling firms conduct the polls, they often deliberately over- or underrepresent, or even completely omit certain groups, to concentrate on helping parties and their activists bring desirable voters to the polls, from certain ethnic, occupational or other groups, or from certain neighbourhoods. They are for internal party use only, confidential, not directly comparable to polls by public firms like Forum or Nanos, and when they are somehow 'leaked', it is always suspicious. It is quite likely the NDP deliberately leaked Papineau poll for electoral purposes, and perhaps someone (Cons' opponents ?) stole or deliberately leaked those Conservative polls as well for the same reason.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
John McCallum & the Liberals had an unexpectedly close call in the old Markham-Unionville riding in 2011, with McCallum only winning by about 3 points.
However, with Liberal fortunes on the rise in Ontario, and the Conservatives down, if seat projections are accurate, McCallum has a 90% chance of winning Markham-Thornhill.
15 08 26 jeff316
McCallum will hold this. A decent NDP candidate will take votes from both parties.
15 08 22 Theva
The NDP candidate is well known in the Tamil community, a population that have a substantial amount of votes the Markham- Thornhill area. Previously they have voted in favour of the Liberal party, these Tamil voters tend to vote together. However in this point in time I'm not sure how many votes can be retain by the Liberal Party. I think that is too close to call.
15 08 15 Tes
John McCallum is a good man and he used to be my MP. He does not play ethnic politics and is deeply involved with all groups in the riding (Caucasians, Tamils, Chinese, etc.). Mr. McCallum is a hard worker and has the backing of both the Markham Mayor and the city councilors in the area. My friends who live in this riding have still to hear from the other candidates, and plan to vote Liberal.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
If John McCallum can survive the Liberal meltdown of 2011, he can surely keep his seat in 2015 when the Liberals are polling much better than last time. His vote share may decrease, but he should have no problems staying on as MP.
15 08 01 A.S.
A deceptive name, since it contains only the decapitated east chunk of Thornhill riding; what dominates is the Scarborough-hugging Asian ethnoburban sprawl of Milliken, Armadale, etc--the historical heart of hyper-Liberal support in Markham, which explains why McCallum was 2011's only 905 Grit survivor. Also has a surprisingly high notional-2011 *NDP* share for York Region, thanks to the Rathika-spillover clout in the Tamil-dominated E end of the riding--and unlike last time, the NDP's present candidate is Tamil, so the Cons definitely don't have exclusive dibs on the loosely-cast S Asian vote. That is, any remaining threat to McCallum might *not* be strictly from the Cons seeking to 'finish business' within the 905--we could have an unlikely 3-way thing going here.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
I don't really know why everyone is saying McCallum won't even break a sweat holding this. The CPC candidate is Indian, so he'll dominate that significant community. This riding also has many Jews in Thornhill, and the CPC pro-Israel rhetoric has resonated with that community.As for the Chinese, I'm not sure if McCallum can count on them just due to his wife being Chinese. Too close to call.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Safest Liberal seat in the 905 (it's predecessor was the only Liberal seat in the 905 after the 2011 election). McCallum will hold.
15 03 28 monkey
Of the 905 ridings, this is the strongest Liberal riding and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they win big here. Even if the Tories do win most of the 905 ridings, this won't be one of them.
15 03 24 JC
John McCallum decided to run in this riding rather than in Markham-Unionville, I think this is a hold regardless.

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