Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-06 23:30:44

Constituency Profile


Calandra, Paul

Hines, Gregory

O'Brien, Myles

Philpott, Jane

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4060.86%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (177/196 polls, 90.70% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Calandra

   (19/196 polls, 9.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McCallum


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15 10 13 Marco Ricci
CTV's Robert Fife reported tonight that Conservative sources expect Paul Calandra to 'go down to defeat':
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
I agree that one has to be cautious about basing a call on riding polls, but the seat projections by Eric Grenier (308) & Bryan Breguet (Too Close To Call) are also showing this seat trending Liberal.
The other interesting factor this week is that Paul Calandra himself lashed out at the Liberals in the press as having run a negative campaign (which political commentator Andrew Coyne said on Twitter was funny since Calandra is the one known for personal attacks). That seems to indicate that Calandra may be feeling some heat, and the polls could be accurate.
So let's leave this one as TCTC and make a final decision next week.
15 10 07 R.O.
I saw the forum poll but my thoughs on this riding and this area in general as it's a swing area and won't really be decided till the final week of the election. It seems too early to make a call yet. Its not as incumbent friendly an area as other regions of Ontario so Paul Calandra being the incumbent isn't that big of an advantage here. there is also a lot of new growth and new residents in these ridings. but during such a close election a riding like this is one that could still go conservative or liberal depends on how campaign turns out. It is a riding that is a clear conservative/liberal race with ndp doing very little here.
15 10 05 Jeff S
Forum poll gives Liberals a 51-40 lead. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2402/liberals-philpott-with-more-than-half-the-vote/
15 09 08 JS
This riding only tipped slightly in the Liberals favour in recent polls. Even without local candidate effects, simple voter migration trends and the current polls suggest a very slight Liberal lead at the moment, but add to this a particularly strong candidate for the Liberals in Philpott and Calandra's negative press in the recent parliamentary term and it is hard for me to see Calandra holding on this seat.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
This riding was leaning Conservative during August, but the new seat projections based on the Labour Day polls show this riding now leaning Liberal for the first time.
Liberal & NDP voters obviously don't like Paul Calandra due to his behaviour towards them in Question Period and on the t.v. political panels, but general election voters are probably more neutral. TCTC.
15 09 02 Nick M
It's gonna be close. I am too biased against Paul and his question period antics to say it is Conservative. With that being said, 905 voters have massive swings. Probably be a hold.
15 08 17 A.S.
It's a bit like Markham's answer to Spadina-Fort York, i.e. the notional CPC advantage is outsize due to its being almost all from Calandra's former constituency (where he had incumbent advantage due to having first won in '08). However, Old Markham is predominantly Red Tory (i.e. naturally Grit-compatible as of late), the Cornellian sprawl beyond is also naturally Lib-inclined (with a south-of-407 pocket even going with the Rathika-land NDP flow in 2011!), and even traditionally-blue Stouffville has taken a page from Milton in how suburban explosion has dragged things noticably red-ward. And, well, then there's Calandra's Commons antics to deal with--ultimately, you can only take the Jason Kenney ethnoburban patch-up job so far. Though it's at times like this that a reasonably healthy and/or close-to-parity Liberal party comes into use (which recent polling suggests, is still not out of the question in Ontario)
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The numbers favor the Conservatives here at the moment, but that can always change. Paul Calandra's antics during Question Period won't win him any favors, but he is the incumbent and will get a bump from that. The Liberals are polling better than last time, but I'm not sure if that's enough for them to win here. TCTC is probably the right call for the time being.
15 07 31 Woodworth
If the riding does pay attention to Calandra's antics, which have surpassed Question Period and made prime time news, this riding will go Liberal.
15 07 30 R.O.
Somewhat of a redistributed riding so harder to predict what will happen here , Paul Calandra is one of the higher profile conservative mp's from this area of gta . and from 2011 results he has a lead over the liberals that could be hard to overcome . ndp has never been much of a factor in this area and even with better polling numbers hard to see them doing much in York region. Seems like an area that is more likely to stay blue than go for another party.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
While it is fun for insiders, nobody watches QP. Stoufville is conservative too. Calandra will win and continue to have his fun in the HoC.
15 03 28 monkey
I would give the Tories the edge here. As much as some may hate Paul Calandra much of this riding is still small town or rural in nature despite its close proximity to Toronto. While Markham will probably go Liberal, the Tories should win Whitchurch-Stouffville so its whichever party racks up a bigger margin that takes this.
15 03 27 Jason
Liberal pick up.
My three reasons.
1. This riding leans Liberal and they are polling even with the Tories in Ontario. Paul Calandra won with just 600 votes back in 2008 when the Tories were leading by 6 points.
2. The Liberals are making a serious play for this riding with Jane Philpott.
3. Question period antics aside, Paul Calandra is not an entrenched incumbent (unlike Julian Fantino).
15 03 26 Carleton Student
How many voters in the riding actually watch QP JC? Win for Calandra
15 03 24 JC
Paul Calandra was the embarrassing MP who had that dust-up in Question Period. I have to think he's going to lose this seat.

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