Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:05:39

Constituency Profile


Andrade, Margaret

Brown, Gord

McFall, Mary Jean

Rekmans, Lorraine A.

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (222/222 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Gordon Brown


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15 08 21 P.M.
Unfortunately, the odds of either the NDP or Liberal candidate being elected aren't nearly as good as an ice age on Mercury.
15 07 26 A.S.
Stevo: the added 'Thousand Islands' is one of nomenclature, not geography--there's been no change in boundary, much less advantage. And it shouldn't be 'amazing' that it went Liberal in the Chretien years: more that it *already* went Liberal in the Free Trade election year of 1988 (given the issue in question, being a border seat helped). So, some form or another of populist backlash to Con-dom is possible in even L-G--but I wouldn't count on it now.
15 04 27 Stevo
Safest Conservative seat in Ontario, although the addition of the Thousand Islands may slightly weigh on the Conservative margin here. Whereas other staunchly CPC ridings in eastern Ontario such as Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke or Stormont-Dundas have a populist bent to them and could conceivably switch to another party under certain circumstances, Leeds-Grenville is true blue conservative similar to Parry Sound or Perth-Wellington but without the GTA cottagers in the former or Stratford in the latter. It's amazing that it ever went Liberal, even with the divided right.
15 04 26 Docere
What's with the ridiculous new riding name? Whatever its name, this is one of a few ridings where the provincial Tories received over 50% of the vote in the Hudak disaster. Nothing to see here.
15 03 22 TS
Gord Brown has done a great job of representing this Riding. There are few better constituency reps in Canada than Gord. Add this to the fact that it is solid Conservative territory and the Liberals will have a hard time here....My prediction is that even if the Conservatives only won 5 seats in Ontario that Leeds-Grenville TI-RL will be one of them.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
A boring race. Most of Eastern Ontario will go solidly Conservative blue.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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