Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:05:32

Constituency Profile


Filson, Ken

Isaac, Rex

Johnston, Jim

Shipley, Bev

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4130.81%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (237/239 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bev Shipley

   (2/239 polls, 0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dave Van Kesteren


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15 10 16 prognosticator15
Conservative support here is too strong for opposition to overcome, provincial Liberals deeply unpopular, and Conservative Bev Shipley is very popular. The word on the ground is that Shipley sends his willing volunteers to campaign in London and other places expected to be closer. It should be noted there are some leftist strongholds here as well, mostly NDP with its more committed support base, and as sections of the riding develop into retirement communities like Grand Bend, support there also becomes mixed. It is impossible for opposition to overcome Cons organization here in 2015, and I expect the result to be about the same as last time, with NDP in second place.
15 10 09 SK
Had to drive from one end of this riding to the other yesterday (from Wallaceburg to London)and was struck with how few Conservative signs there are on private property compared to 2011. Wallaceburg has lots of Conservative and NDP signs, and a few Liberal. Dresden signs favour the Conservatives. Bothwell seems to be NDP. From Bothwell to Mount Brydges there are far fewer signs of any sort on private property (as compared to the western end of the riding and as compared to the last election). As you get closer to London, there tend to be more Liberal and NDP signs on private property.
The conservative vote in this riding was high last election (in fact, a majority). While the Conservatives are still likely to win this riding, it will be a much reduced plurality.
The mood for change across the country is strong and building. That mood will be 'brought home' and reinforced in LKM this weekend as students return home from college and university, and young families return to the riding from London, Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, and beyond. The turkey effect may very well take hold, resulting in a much closer race in this and other rural ridings throughout southwestern Ontario than is currently expected. We tend to be in a bit of a conservative 'bubble' in rural southwestern Ontario and discussions over turkey will bring the mood for change 'home'.
My prediction: a conservative win perhaps, but with a much stronger Liberal and NDP vote than last time.
15 09 22 R.O.
This has become a fairly reliable conservative riding federally and provincially as conservatives made gains in rural Ontario. Bev Shipley has also been mp since 2006 so well known in riding . and both his main opponents are new and not ran here before federally. it's the kind of riding conservatives should hold on to.
15 08 17 A.S.
'Monte McNaughton's provincial riding' says it all--yet funnily enough, pre-PC-implosion this was more Lib-PC swing than solid-Tory country. But if we go by recent federal and provincial patterns, the NDP has usurped the 'primary-threat' role (such as it is) from the Liberals--they may be gallant about it (esp. w/a First Nations candidate), but I can't see them making much ground beyond the reserves, blue-collar Wallaceburg (which already went federally NDP way back in 2004!), and maybe Strathroy inroads and other flotsam. Or, *if* they get this at all, the NDP'll be in solid-majority territory and the Cons'll be in third place. (Which, in light of Duffygate, might not be an impossible prospect.)
15 08 01 Philip Shaw
LKM will certainly be in play this time around. Agriculture remains the single biggest issue in this riding. The Cons have always refused federal participation in Ontario Grain Farmers business risk management initiatives like the Risk Management Program. I was surprised Mr Shipley is running again, he's had a good run. He has certainly been popular in past elections. Mr Isaac will surely look to ride on Mulcair's coat tails, Mr Filson will surely challenge too. I dunno why this campaign has to be so long.
15 07 22 Off the record
Just want to throw up the flag here. There is no doubt Bev S is popular here but his entire 'popularity' is tied to Harper. Rex has obvious support in all of the First Nations Communities and will have a get out the vote effort that will be highly effective. He's going to meet lots of racism along the way and if he manages to navigate his way through it he might just be standing in the right place at the right time on election night.
15 03 28 monkey
This is Monte McNaughton's provincial riding who is the standard bearer of the right wing of the provincial PCs. While such views may hurt the party elsewhere, this is like all other rural Ontario ridings a solid conservative one.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Rural Ontario with very Conservative leanings. Easy Conservative hold.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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