Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Kitchener South-Hespeler

Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 12:59:03

Constituency Profile


Baetz, Elaine

Bruce, Lorne

Gagné, Marian

Lajeunesse, Nathan

Tabbara, Marwan

Weber, David

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 470.12%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (114/179 polls, 64.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Harold Albrecht

   (48/179 polls, 26.73% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gary Goodyear

   Kitchener Centre
   (17/179 polls, 8.33% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Stephen Woodworth


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15 10 15 Spx
This one is going to be really tight I think, but if the Conservatives were to hold any Kitchener riding, it's definitely this one. I am still leaning Conservative here but probably comes down to the wire here just like my prediction for St. Catharines. Going to make a final call later.
15 10 13 Spx
Should get pretty close in this riding as well, unlike the other three Kitchener ridings I still see the Conservatives slightly ahead here. Might still flip over if there is some more momentum over the last few days. TCTC for now
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Even with polling numbers saying that the Liberals are up in Ontario from 25% in 2011 to 44%, I do not see them pulling off an upset in this riding. Likely will be close-ish because it's a new riding, with fresh faces but my money is on Gagne.
15 10 04 Francis
This riding has become a real dog fight. The Liberal candidate has completely imploded. He made a fool of himself in the televised debate and has had to publicly apologize for not saying that Stephen Harper invaded Afghanistan. The local paper published a column suggesting that the riding would be a close fight between the Liberals and the NDP. This riding is going to be a bellweather one on election night. If the NDP is able to pick it up things will be looking very good for Tom Mulcair nationally and if it goes Conservative then Stephen Harper will be having a good night. There is no way the Liberals are even competitive here the only way for them to have an impact is in splitting the vote.
15 09 20 R.O.
This is a new riding and a tough one to get a feel for , it's a mix of 3 kitchener area ridings that went cpc in 2011. None of the main candidates are that high profile . Lorne Bruce has ran for the ndp before in another Kitchener riding . Marian Gagne is somewhat new but was a candidate in a by-election in 2003 according to pundits guide . Marwan Tabbara is also new and doesn't appear to have much political experience either. With a month to go its not clear yet where this riding is headed . but had it existed in 2011 it would of went conservative.
15 09 12 Jason
It might be closer than some would expect, but new riding will go Conservative.
The Liberals and NDP have a chance in this riding in a future election cycle.
At the moment, progressive voters will be split between the Liberals and NDP, resulting in the Conservatives taking this with 37-40% of the vote.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this only a 5-point lead with 29% of the vote tied up uselessly in Liberal and Green. So 1/6 of that has to shift NDP to make it competitive. At 63% Con chance to win this is more in play than many others still left TCTC. Time to revisit all of Ontario and ask where the regional and overall provincial momentum is. With other KW area and London area seats leaving the Cons, this one being safe is just premature.
15 07 19 A.S.
A new seat and a bit disconnectedly murky to judge unless one subscribed to 'SW Ontario CPC re-sweep' common default wisdom. I, for one, wouldn't go by Springfield vs Shelbyville 'Hespelerians won't support a Kitchener lawyer' logic, especially considering that Hespeler constitutes not much more than a quarter of the total electorate. OTOH as far as most conservative non-rural parts of Waterloo Region go: that may go for the central Pioneer-Park-to-Chicopee axis; but much of the rest (even relatively recent-burbia) is surprisingly amenable to Lib/NDP progressivism--the spirit of Max Saltzman dies hard. Don't overestimate apparent Conservative status quo here; the provincial PCs fell dramatically short of expectations in each of the constituent seats in 2014 (losing two-decade stronghold Cambridge; nearly losing Conestoga; a former Harris-era MPP bidding to take back open-seat Kitchener Centre but battling the NDP for second instead)
15 07 11 FJ
There is no way this should be called for the Conservatives yet. With the recent NDP surge in the polls there is a strong likelihood that team orange is able to pick up this seat. This is not Kitchener Conestoga or Cambridge in 2011, the tory candidate is a Kitchener lawyer which won`t play well in Hespeler. Hespeler more than any other place in Waterloo Region votes for the candidate, they are going to be far more impressed with the NDP`s choice this time. In the Kitchener part of the riding the national scene is important to voters and Tom Mulcair is far more popular right now than any of the other leaders. While I am not quite ready to call this for the NDP I do know that this should definitely be TCTC still. This may be one of those ridings where the result will determine the election result.
15 03 28 monkey
This essentially takes the most conservative parts of the KW region excluding the rural areas so even with the Liberals gaining in urban Canada, this should buck the trend and stay Conservative.
15 03 25 Noam Gold-Utting
By the numbers alone one would think this is an easy Conservative hold but that isn't taking into account all the changes since the last election. The Conservative's popularity in the region is at an all time low and the region is starting to pay more attention to other parties, most notably the NDP. Catherine Fife's win and reelection here is demonstrative of the fact that Waterloo region isn't a no hope area for the NDP. In addition the party was the first to nominate a candidate and they have nominated a personally known and popular community member. At this point this is way to early to call a winner but I am gonna say expect a tight race between the Conservatives and New Democrats.

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