Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Etobicoke Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:44:03

Constituency Profile


De Mello, Tanya

Opitz, Ted

Rizvi, Shawn

Wolvin, Rob

Wrzesnewskyj, Borys

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1460.27%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Etobicoke Centre
   (222/240 polls, 93.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ted Opitz

   (18/240 polls, 6.58% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bernard Trottier


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15 10 15 Marco Ricci
The fact that Stephen Harper & The Fords have been holding rallies in Etobicoke this week could mean that the Conservatives are in trouble here and are already losing, or it could mean that it's close enough that they still think they have a shot at holding on.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Mainstreet Research poll puts LPC at 43 and CPC at 42. Looks like this will be a tight race again. Should be moved to TCTC.
15 09 25 Monkey Cheese
It's possible this might be close, but Mainstreet always seems to oversample Conservative support. They always give them higher numbers for them when most other pollsters don't. There's every possibility that we might see a close race, but if we go by more reputable polling numbers, the Liberals are still projected to win this riding as they are polling a good 10% better than 2011. Opitz has also not been a strong or impressive MP and once the NDP realize they have no chance here, some of them (along with some dissatisfied swing Tory voters) will come up with that 1000 vote difference for Borys to win. Although I won't be surprised if that win is by less than 2000 votes.
15 09 12 R.O.
There was a poll just realised for Toronto/416 area by Mainstreet polling. it shows a liberal lead in Toronto at 43 lib , 28 cpc and 27 ndp. However it gave numbers just for Etobicoke for decided voters and they were much closer at 42 lib , 41 cpc and 13 ndp . so this riding may be just as close as 2011 and current mp Ted Opitz may not be as out of the race as some posters claim. However there is still a month to go and it depends how overall race plays out .
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
G. Smith, the latest Ontario numbers from Abacus yesterday actually show Liberal support rising in Ontario & NDP support dropping, so your theory that Wynne will hurt Trudeau is not accurate at this point.
Perhaps the situation will change again by October, but for now the Liberals have the numbers to win back this riding:
Ontario Abacus numbers: LPC 34, CPC 33, NDP 26
15 08 24 Monkey Cheese
Wasn't this the riding where #AngryCon shouted profanities at female journalists after asking Harper questions about Duffygate while proudly displaying his Ted Opitz and Doug Ford buttons? He was also the same guy who heckled Olivia Chow with racist comments. Yeah, that's not how you win friends and influence people. I did not see Ted Opitz apologize for #AngryCon's behavior and even if he did now it would be too little too late. Aside from that, Ted Opitz has not been a particularly strong or noteworthy MP. It would only take a shift of 1000 votes for the Liberals to win and considering that they are performing much better than 2011 and the Conservatives are polling 10 points lower, the math alone is enough for me to call this one for the Liberals.
15 08 21 2015
I think this was the riding where that bizarre Conservative supporter went on a profanity-laced rant against the media about the Duffy affair. More surprising considering these events are so staged and managed (Especially CPC ones). I think the Liberals will win here by a fair margin since the result was so close last time.
15 08 18 G. Smith
It appears that Boris has this one in the bag.. but a Conservative hold as the surge in the NDP will spit the vote. Wynne hugging Justin at every chance will hurt the Liberals. Hurt enough to make people stay away
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
A close and controversial race last time, but I think this time Boris will come out on top. The Liberals are polling stronger than last time and people will remember the controversies in this riding when they go to the polls again. Ted Opitz hasn't really been a strong MP and I predict a Liberal win here, although it will be close.
15 07 30 R.O.
One of the closest races last time and somewhat of a hard riding to get a feel for. Well its true the liberals narrowly lost the riding in 2011 . we must keep in mind Ted Optiz has been mp for the last 4 years so he goes into race with somewhat of an incumbent advantage over the liberal who was also mp for a number of years. It depends what kind of election we get in Toronto , if liberals do as well is Kathleen Wynne did maybe they take this one back but if election is similar to 2011 and Toronto ridings split 3 ways than cpc might manage to hold onto a few of these ridings.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Really tough one. CPC can hold it if NDP remains official opposition. Advantage to the Liberals, but Boris isn't a shoe-in. He's lost before, so he shouldn't think it's a low-hanging fruit and that's it.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
There was a lot of controversy in this riding after Opitz' narrow win in 2011. Regardless, the LPC is up and the CPC is down, while the NDP is not a huge player in this riding. This will go Liberal.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
With the Liberals polling much higher and the Conservatives polling worse in Ontario, this is an easy Liberal pick up. Trottier really hasn't done much to make a name for himself aside from defeating Ignattief. Never say never, but the Liberals are the favourites here.
15 05 16 seasaw
Calling this one for the Liberals is a bit premature at this stage of the game anyway. The last time Opitz won by a mere 24 votes I think, and now the Liberals are polling just below, almost tied with the CPC. What we don't know though, is how many people in this riding will vote for the party and how many for the person. If a lot of people go for the person, Opitz will win by a wider margin even if the CPC were to lose the election, because he's been a much better MP than Boris. If it's for the party, then it may depend on who wins. This is one riding that's unpredictable.
15 04 25 Docere
Wrzesnewskyj's hard-line views on Ukraine aside (which seem to be shared by Ukrainian Canadian MP Chrystia Freeland), he only lost this by a few hundred votes. This is the lowest hanging fruit for the Liberals in Toronto.
15 04 12 A.S.
Yeah, nothing like whiff of 'Valentina Lisitsa' to *maybe* crimp what ought to be a sure-thing takeback (though I'm not counting on it)--otherwise, it's worth mentioning that back when the talk was of a remedial byelection, polling figures suggested that Borys was headed for a handy win over Opitz. And in most regards other than ethno-politics, Borys *has* been known for playing the Justin-compatible prog-Lib card; so, for Liberal purposes at the very least, he should be viewed as an overwhelming favourite. Yet for whatever reason, Etobicoke Centre's long had a 'Toryish' reputation--federally, it's a bit of a Michael Wilson legacy laced with a dab of 'Harper's Richview' mythology; though it may have more to do with municipal politics: the land of Doug Holyday-style misers...and, of course, the Fords. Who may politically represent Etobicoke North (and the family homestead *was* in Etobicoke North until its 'panhandle' was pruned away in the '00's--yet Rob/Doug's Ward 2 boundary still reflects the old order); but now all reside in Etobicoke Centre. Indeed, in the half-empty/half-full scheme of things, consider that even with a home-territory Ford honeymoon breeze on their back, the Cons were *only* able to gain this seat by the slimmest and most contestible of recount margins--that is, the difference encompasses pretty much every voting-age Ford family member who's qualified to vote in EC. So, fire away with the voting-conspiracy-theory hysterics, folks folks folks folks;-) (Oh, and the home poll for the Fords' Weston Wood homestead, longtime ground zero for Ford Fests etc? Believe it or not, Borys won it by 2 votes.)
15 03 28 monkey
The Tories barely won last time around so unless there is a Liberal meltdown I suspect the Liberals will win this back, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Tories have a strong second place showing here.
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
Opitz may have an incumbency boost, but Wrzesnewskyj is running again and he held seat he held for 7 years. This was the closest seat in Toronto in 2011 when the Liberals were 19% behind in Ontario. Now they're tied or ahead in the province. Since the last federal election, this district went Liberal provincially 51/33 and 50/33 in 2011 and 2014 respectively. This riding will go Liberal again in 2015.
15 03 25 Stevo
Looking at Wrzewnevskyj's record, thin as it is, it's hard to tell whether he was an MP for Canada or the Ukraine. I'm inclined to agree that this seat will flip back to the red column despite its hallowed Conservative past.
15 03 25 SC
It's the Liberals seat to lose. However, unless Borys can keep a lid on his recent fringe views on arming the Ukraine (a viewpoint that has caused much of the Liberal party to distance themselves from him as it is only far-right republicans who share these views) he might find himself alienated by the large WASP and non-Ukrainian European voters who have a more balanced view on the complexity of European Politics and are usually uninterested in a war-monger as their member of parliament.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Even without the whole court case and voter suppression scandal, a race with such a small win for the Conservatives could not be maintained with current levels of support. Opitz would need to be astoundingly charismatic or Wrzesnewskyj astoundingly terrible to shift the general trend. This is low hanging fruit for the grits and I think it will resoundingly vote Liberal.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Borys Wrzesnewskyj, an expert in Eastern European (particularly Polish and Ukrainian) affairs, is in a rematch with Conservative bagman Ted Opitz here.
Borys won this seat in 2011 but Ted Opitz stole it with electoral fraud and intimidation tactics at the polls. An Ontario court threw out 79 ballots, but a Supreme Court of Canada judgement that the Chief Justice herself dissented put back 59 of them, giving Optiz a hollow victory of 6 votes. As Beverly Maclachlin declared 'the absence of a declaration of qualification was not merely technical or trivial. This irregularity went to the heart of the entitlement to vote. Accordingly, the presumption of regularity was rebutted and these votes were properly set aside.'
A six vote margin would normally have entitled the Liberals to a recount, and the court could have (and should have) ordered a revote. But it didn't and the matter wasn't pressed, as Harper's majority seemed secure given this ruling. A ruling that many believe opens the doors to extreme electoral fraud by all parties, especially as Pierre Poilivre's 'Fair Elections Act' puts the ruling party in charge of poll scrutineering...
Ted Opitz, a 'political advisor', achieved nothing in his four years in the House, certainly not compared to Borys' achievements as a busy bee on genuine international and domestic human rights issues.
Liberals won in 2011, barely, and due to anger about being cheated will win handily in 2015. Probably Conservatives will be ordered not to get caught cheating in this riding again, given the exposure of the court case.

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