Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:23:36

Constituency Profile


Baldwin-Sands, Lori

Bernardi, Lou

Hopkins, Michael

Morgan, Bronagh Joyce

Sinclair, Fred

Vecchio, Karen Louise

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 7001.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (232/232 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joe Preston


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15 10 18 prognosticator15
The riding will be won by Vecchio by a narrower margin than Joe Preston's last time. As long as the Cons candidate is not complacent and fights for every vote (and there are signs of that), Baldwin-Sands has no chance to overtake her. Riding demographics are even more conservative now than in 2011, and Cons numbers remain consistently high in rural Ontario. Cons message against Liberal taxes and waste is very popular among farmers as well as retirees who moved to nicer places on Lake Erie shore.
15 09 21 Concerned Citizen
There was a recent televised debate shown in this riding. The Conservative was nervous, the NDP was not very knowledgeable re their platform and the Green party candidate is kooky. The only one prepared with her platform was the Liberal who has been campaigning door to door since her nomination in January. Being a former City Councillor, she knows what the concerns are for EML and was the best by far. I wish that the Conservatives would give her a chance since that party has not been good for this riding. There are some Con voters who are switching their vote. particularly Dairy and Beef Farmers who are upset with Harper's TPP transactions.
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
CPC hold. Being a former EA is helpful for a candidate.
15 08 29 A.S.
2011 here offered one of the most striking reminders of how things turned 180 over the course of the campaign: the original NDP candidate (who'd bid credibly in 2008) withdrew on behalf of the 'strategic' Liberals...but then his replacement (who's running again) got nearly a quarter of a vote, almost twice as much as the Liberals! Though that was still far behind the Cons, for whom this has been one of their solider SW Ontario seats--however, there's been this strange looming rust-belt cloud looming over St. Thomas (ghostly reminders of the railroad industry, a closed Ford plant, etc), and Elgin County's never really gotten that 'Mitch Hepburn' maverick tendency out of its system. Joe Preston's gone; and with this now being a non-incumbent seat, I'll go with the maverick and gamble a non-prediction--though with Baldwin-Sands' Grit candidacy under consideration, I'll admit that this is a likelier place for the left-fighting-it-out-for-second scenario that Rational Optimist offered for Sarnia-Lambton...
15 08 20 R.O.
Joe Preston has retired as mp for this riding but its still one of the more reliable conservative ridings in Southwestern Ontario. It also stayed pc during the last provincial vote when other nearby ridings went ndp or liberal. Other than city of St Thomas It is mostly a rural riding and I don't think it includes any urban polls in London. Being an open seat it might be closer than past years but Karen Vecchio should be able to hold onto this riding for conservatives.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 says the NDP is now the real challenger here by 43.5% Con to 32.9% NDP. That's ten points, but with 1/4 of the vote presently pegged by 308 with the Greens and Liberals, only 40% of that has to shift to the NDP to beat them. Even with the numbers as they are 308 gives the Cons only a 73% change to win.
I'd say this one is (barely) too close to call. Especially as other London area ridings seem to be swinging against the Cons.
15 07 15 Concerned Citizen
I would not count the Liberal candidate out in this riding. The retiring Conservative has some explaining to do about not getting funding from the Government promised to a municipality for a project that they are now owing millions of Dollars. The Assistant has been campaigning for months, while still working for the present MP, now her campaign manager which was the subject of the letter to the Editor, not sent by the Liberal candidate but other people concerned with the optics. This also was not received well by the public.Maybe change is in the works.
15 03 25 DWN68
This will be a Conservative hold. The current MP, Joe Preston is retiring and his executive assistant is Conservative candidate. She is very personable and has great knowledge of the concerns of the riding. This riding is tradition Conservative riding and it would take a major drop in the polling to put the other parties in play. The Liberal Candidate is already playing nasty with letters to the editor of the local papers. Outgoing MP is playing the high road. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds, but I am predicting a big time Conservative hold.

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