Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Don Valley East

Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:46:55

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Khalid

Harquail, Maureen

Ratansi, Yasmin

Sanderson, Laura Elizabeth

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1880.53%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Don Valley East
   (110/175 polls, 61.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joe Daniel

   Don Valley West
   (65/175 polls, 38.56% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Carmichael


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15 10 18 Ralph Foster
Those who say that Don Valley East will be an easy Liberal victory only use the redistributed results and polls as a basis for their opinion. The fact that Ratansi came up on top in the redistributed results doesn't mean a thing: a change in riding boundaries would have affected how Joe Daniel ran his campaign in 2011. As a previous commenter noted, sites like threehundredeight give the Liberals a 40 point lead. While polling aggregation may be correct on average, these results are highly volatile for individual ridings where local candidates and campaigning make a huge difference. All three Don Valleys will be close races. We all know that. If the polls were right, Ratansi would have been re-elected and the Conservatives would have won only a minority. Dr.Bear mentions the 'regulars'? No one in here has submitted more than three submissions. No one here is a regular. Maybe Dr.Bear is referring to those who give their two cents worth in dozens of different ridings even if they don't live there. If that's what's a regular, then their opinion is worthless compared to that of a one-time poster who actually lives permanently in this riding and knows what's really going on.
Now here I'm going to present why Maureen Harquail will win Don Valley East. I have a co-worker who works for the Harquail campaign who has told me that her campaign has identified 14,000 voters in this riding who will vote Conservative. Sure, not everyone will actually go out and vote, but the Tories have the most committed voters. Let's not forget that most people don't answer the door when volunteers go canvassing, so there's a significant amount of Conservative voters who go unnoticed. Joe Daniel won in 2011 with over 14,000 votes and Yasmin Ratansi 'won' the redistribution with less than that. That's why Don Valley East will go blue on Monday night.
15 10 16 Dr. Bear
I completely agree with Marco Ricci. I am highly suspect of the posts below, especially when they seem to be one-time posters. If some of the regulars were to concur with these observations, I might be less suspicious. If what they say below us true, then allow me to extend my sincere congratulations to Maureen Harquail and her team for a superb effort; you won a massive uphill battle against all odds, when the conservatives are failing throughout Toronto, provincially and nationally. That said, I trust imperial data (like polling numbers) and basic logic, both of which tell me this will easily go liberal on Monday.
15 10 16 Just Saying
Marco, sites like 308 give the Liberals about 60% and the Tories 20%. Every resident of this riding knows that the race will be much closer than that. Suggesting that the commenters below you are Conservative operatives is nonsense. Let's not forget that all the riding projection sites got the Don Valleys way off in 2011.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
The long list of Conservative predictions below is surprising because all 3 Don Valley ridings are projected to go Liberal overwhelmingly by all the seat projection sites.
So either the polls are way off, or we have a number of Conservative operatives posting below. I suspect the latter.
15 10 07 Don Mills Voter
I attended an all candidates' debate for our condo development the other night. In response to a question about whether legalizing marijuana was really a top priority, Yasmi Ratansi gave a stock answer. when members of the audience expressed their disapproval, she said 'that's my answer. If you don't like it, too bad!' Wow. What arrogance. I would have thought a former MP would have a little more class and decorum. God help us if she wins. Fortunately from my I am seeing and hearing, that is highly unlikely.
15 09 26 ProBirch
The Conservative candidate has been working hard here. I live near this riding and I've crossed by her campaign team door knocking a few times now. I have seen only a handful of Ratansi signs. The NDP candidate is also working hard, but the question is is there enough of an NDP base for him to win.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Tight 3 way race in this riding. I agree with the other posters, a huge spike in CPC signs on lawns in this riding compared to previous federal and provincial elections. Harquail can pull it off with a strong NDP candidate - which seems to be the case here.
15 09 26 Ralph Foster
I have an additional reason why I think that the Conservatives will win Don Valley East. A Forum Research poll was released on September 18 that polled residents of Toronto and the GTA (http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/a0e1f3f5-7627-4636-a103-49857041dce9GTA%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282015%2009%2018%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf). One of the poll's findings was that the Tories lead North York with 50% support. Unfortunately, the poll did not give any further details on how much the other parties received in North York. I averaged out the redistributed results of all eight ridings in North York (http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-story/5786732-federal-election-in-north-york-new-borders-a-new-riding-and-at-least-one-new-mp/) and I found out that the Conservatives had about 38% support during the last election (redistributed). Going from 38% to 50% is an increase by 12 percentage points. Using the regional swing algorithm, popular in several polling aggregators, like threehundredeight, a 12 percentage point upward swing for the Tories in all eight of these ridings would occur. For Don Valley East this would be: 36% + 12% = 48%. Receiving 48% in Don Valley East guarantees near-certain victory for Maureen Harquail, especially if one considers that the Liberals and NDP may split some of the left. One may argue that the margin of error would be very high for such a sample (for the entire poll it is +/- 3 pp, so North York may be around +/- 10 pp or more), but considering Forum's house effect (the pollster underestimated the Conservatives by nearly 4 points in 2011), having 40%+ support for the Conservatives in Don Valley East seems completely reasonable and plausible.
15 09 25 Tes
Almost an overnight change in this riding. Maureen's signs dominate this riding now. Despite being a provincial issue, the sex-ed curricular has pushed religious Muslims from Flemingdon Park and Catholics in the riding to high gear in support of Harquail (Local TCDSB Trustee Angela Kennedy and City Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong have endorsed her and are campaigning hard for her). Ratansi seems to be lost in the murky middle. Harquail has massive teams canvassing with her, and if all of this momentum stays for election day, she will be elected.
15 09 13 Keen Observer
Ralph Foster is seeing the same thing that I am. Not sure what Ratansi is doing. she is either not really in this race or it is some sort of Rope-a-Dope strategy. The NDP seem to be running a more aggressive campaign, but their presence only seems to be on public property. I still give the edge to Harquail and the Tories.
15 09 12 Ralph Foster
Don Valley East is going to be a Conservative win. The local candidate, Maureen Harquail, has been campaigning very hard since the beginning of the campaign period. Her teams go on door-to-door canvasses, each lasting 2-3 hours, twice a day (including weekends), while other volunteers and campaign workers handle the phone banks back at the campaign office. She has contacted most houses and visits all neighbourhoods at least 3-4 times. The Conservatives have an extensive voter database and can very effectively reach out to undecided and leaning voters. Don Valley East used to be a Liberal stronghold, but now the riding is full of blue signs. Harquail is definitely doing much more work than the previous incumbent, Joe Daniel did back in 2011 (Daniel mostly just rode the CPC tide during that election and won by a very small margin). Meanwhile, only a few Ratansi signs can be seen. For every Liberal sign, you see at least 3 elect Harquail signs. Ratansi also isn't very popular in this riding, despite being the MP from 2004-2011. The NDP aren't working as hard either. Khalid Ahmed has lots of signs beside roads and public places, but few in front of houses. This just indicates spending money, not votes. The only homes where I have seen orange signs are in Flemingdon Park. As for the Green Party, I have seen two signs. This will be competitive race, but I predict that Harquail (Conservatives) will win.
My guess: CPC: 40%, LPC: 35%, NDP: 25%.
15 08 26 rjk
Caveat: I do not live in the riding - but across the street on the Scarborough side of Victoria Park. I first met Ms. Ratansi in the late 90's before she became an MP. I was just a local ratepayer opposing nearby high-density development (replacing our greenspace and re-routing a small waterway)and she was attending the same public event as me when we first met (though she was only then hoping to get the nomination to replace-then defence Minister Collette) she was already not only attending the event but also advocating at municipal board hearings a revision of plans that eventually were adopted. While not the most exciting individuals on the hill, she was consistent in her local advocacy and in-riding assistance to constituents (including helping my parents - who do live in riding - through a complex CRA dispute). The anomalous result last time was a complete result of national campaign momentum change and strong resources and money spent to gain a marginal seat. This one is returning to the Liberal fold due to Ms. Ratansi's decade-long local efforts and a more broad GTA backlash against the current ruling party. And regardless of your leaning, please vote.
15 08 27 Keen Observer
Something seems to be happening in this riding. Long time residents say they have never seen so many blue signs in this area. I have had Conservative canvassers at my door twice. Drove by the Harquail office the other day and it was bustling with activity. Yasmin's office was quiet. I think that this one will go Conservative.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
Liberal win for now. Unlike in Don Valley West, the NDP did receive a solid slice of the vote in Don Valley East in 2011, although they still finished 3rd, as they did provincially last year.
As the former MP, Yatansi should have an advantage over the new Conservative & NDP candidates here. Conservative MP Joe Daniel went to another riding because he obviously wasn't confident about his chances here. It's still possible the new Conservative could be competitive, but right now the Liberals would win this riding back with their numbers being up from 2011 numbers.
It's hard to know what the NDP score will be here. Time will tell.
15 08 07 Jack Bauer
Conservative candidate wasnt that good in neighbouring Willowdale in the 2008 by-election which is a similar demographic then St. Paul's where MH parachuted into for the 2011 campaign. Did WORSE then the conservative candidates who ran before and after her run against Martha Hall Findlay in the 2008 Willowdale by-election. Conservatives have no ground game or strong team here. Its all based on the national campaign to hold this riding.Easy Liberal Hold.
15 07 31 Woodworth
This one will go NDP. Yasmin is a has-been MP and the Tories are weak here. With the NDP surge they should win this seat.
15 07 01 HFoster
This seat has the demographics to go orange. The more Conservative part of Don Valley East has been chopped off into the new Don Valley North riding. The riding is largely populated by new immigrant communities, and has a large number of renters and apartments. Ratansi (Liberal) and Harquail (Conservative) are both excellent candidates, but the tide is against them both in this riding. If the NDP work hard in this riding, they will win it.
15 06 27 A.S.
It's the substitution of Flemingdon for north-of-the-401 that gives the Ratansi Grits the edge here--though in a Mulcair-on-top era and in light of the unforeseen quarter-of-the-vote the NDP got in DVE in '11, maybe it's worth monitoring *that* end, too. (That their notional share drops in the redraw has more to do with the Dippers' controversial invisible/paper-candidate status in DVW in 2011; otherwise, Flemingdon is exactly the kind of place they'd be *strong* in.) Oh, and as for Harquail: home riding or not, let's not make too much of her past byelection/general-election strength, which really, in the end, had more to do with external Cons-in-power/Grits-in-decline circumstances--after all, even with the aforementioned invisible candidate, the NDP had *its* best result in DVW in over a quarter century...
15 06 14 seasaw
I will give the edge to the Liberals for now. Ratansi is well known and she's a very honest and intelligent woman, but we must also remember that she was not a particularly effective MP. While the Liberals have the edge, one must not count Harquail out just yet, she's ran for parliament twice, once in Willowdale byelection and the last time in St.Paul, she's running in her home riding this time and it should be noted that in both her previous attempts, she got the highest percentage of the votes by a Conservative in two decades, and she was running against two heavy weights.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Reasons why this riding is leaning Liberal:
1. It was one of the most narrow Liberal losses in Ontario in 2011.
2. Re-distribution now gives the Liberals a 2-point edge.
3. Former Liberal MP Yasmin Ratansi is running again.
4. Conservative MP Joe Daniel has vacated the seat and moved over to Don Valley North.
5. It is a Liberal stronghold provincially, voting 50%+ for Liberal MPP Michael Coteau in 2011 & 2014.
15 03 28 monkey
This is a low hanging fruit for the Liberals so even if they do poorly nationally, they should easily recapture this one.
15 03 26 Jason Z
Former Liberal MP Ratansi running here. Seeing as how the more Conservative part of Don Valley East has been put into Don Valley North, and also considering the increase of Liberal support in the riding, alongside Ratansi's name recognition and the CPC incumbent jumping to another riding, she should have no trouble reclaiming it.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
I'm a conservative, but I don't have a great feeling about the Don Valley, both due to redistribution, as well as the fact that I thought we would lose them in 2011, but Iggy was just that bad. The LPC will pick this back up.
15 03 23 MH
Even without redistribution this would very probably be returning to the Liberal column, given that the Conservatives are lagging in the larger cities. Redistribution makes it a certain unless there is a major shift in the political landscape.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
With redistribution the Liberals would have kept this riding in 2011. Add the general trend back towards the Liberals in the large cities and with Ms. Ratansi offering again for the Liberals, I expect an easy win for the grits.
15 03 21 Jason
Liberals will win the redistributed riding of Don Valley East this year. Even during the 2011 election, the Liberals would have won this seat under its redistributed borders.
Former MP Yasmin Ratasi is returning for the Liberals, while the Tories have a no name candidate for this riding. The NDP is not a factor in DVE unless they start polling 30%+ province wide.

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