Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Davenport


Prediction Changed
2015-04-21 00:08:42
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cash, Andrew

Dzerowicz, Julie

Figueroa, Miguel

Kalevar, Chai

Oliveira, Carlos

Stein, Dan


Population/populations
(2011 census)

102360


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

555314.22%
2098553.72%
1089727.90%
13353.42%
Other 2940.75%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Davenport
   (185/185 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Andrew Cash
5553
20985
10897
1335
Other294



 


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 18 Jeff S
67.81.52.213
Candidates can make a difference in holding a seat when the winds are blowing against your party. Cash is such a candidate.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Reporter David Akin said in his 'Predictionator' last night that he thinks Andrew Cash may be one of the only NDP MP's left in Toronto on Monday night (although he says there's a small possibility of a Cash loss).
15 10 14 Kim C.
174.115.121.72
It looked like this was an NDP lock until a week or so ago. Andrew Cash dominated in the southern portion of the riding and even had more than a few Azorean Portugese households sporting his signs, which is almost unheard of in Davenport (you can often tell who's Azorean by the style of their yards, whether they have a Virgin Mary on their doors, etc. The continental Portugese are more progressive, they used to vote NDP in large numbers in the days of Pires and Ferreira until many got disillusioned by internal party infighting, and now they're a wildcard, but they are a minority at any rate and their vote is not as important as the massive Azorean population.) But I've been seeing quite a few Cash signs being taken down over the last few days all over the south, which may indicate that NDP voters are turning to the Liberals in order to defeat Harper. Under normal circumstances, strategic voting wouldn't apply since the Tories have no chance here but I've heard people talking about the importance of making sure the Liberals get more seats overall than the Conservatives in case Harper tries to cling to power in some sleazy power play. It would be good to see Cash keep his seat. Although he's a good constituency rep, he was very ineffective as an MP in his first years, pandering to the yuppies by jumping very loudly and obnoxiously onto the Clean Train bandwagon, an issue over which he had very little jurisdiction. But in recent months, he has been talking about real working class issues like precarious work that the NDP should be addressing (he was probably talking about these and other issues earlier but it was drowned out by the Clean Train obsession that devolved into caricature at some point and severely overestimated how many residents cared deeply about the issue, which is not to say it isn't important.) He's a charismatic guy with deep ties to the area, although he's lucky he doesn't have a Portugese opponent this election or he'd probably be toast. Unless he's swept up by a red wave, I predict he'll hold on.
15 10 14 Torontonian
192.133.45.2
Parkdale / Davenport were the ONLY regions of the city that went with Olivia Chow in the mayoral elections.
Liberal hopes are being overblown for the 416 based on provincial modelling that ignores localized aspects. There is no way Andrew Cash loses here. NDP hold.
15 10 13 Brian L
50.101.232.16
This is another riding that needs to be listed as TCTC.
The NDP vote is collapsing, even in Toronto. The Laurier Institute for Studies on Public Opinion and Policy prediction has Davenport as TCTC, and Parkdale-High Park as 'Leaning Liberal.'
The way it is looking on their website is that the City of Toronto and the GTA might go entirely Liberal with the exception of Jack Layton's old riding of Toronto-Danforth and King-Vaughan. The rest of the ridings are either 'Stong Liberal', 'Leaning Liberal' or 'TCTC.'
15 10 13 Jason
64.228.198.170
The NDP are poised to lose incumbents in Toronto, but I feel Andrew Cash can hold on to this. If the NDP are reduced to 2-3 seats in Toronto, then Davenport will be one of their holds.
Cash is well liked and affable. He comes off as a modern downtown New Democrat unlike the 'old school' nature of Michael Prue, Olivia Chow, Peter Tabuns etc.
15 10 12 Cory Martin
199.71.2.14
Polls suggesting the Liberals are going to take Ontario I am seeing my old riding of Davenport heading g back to the Liberals
15 10 12 Mark
69.196.134.18
I have previously considered Davenport a Liberal lock. But if the Liberal party has to send out its campaign volunteers to social media to rehash old non-news about Cash's previous contract work for the CBC this tells me their polling still shows Cash with a decent lead.
15 10 13 Monkey Cheeze
99.242.194.247
As of today (October 13), 308 is now showing Davenport as a Liberal gain. With the NDP crashing and burning nationwide, even in their downtown Toronto strongholds, this is a riding that definitely needs to be moved to the TCTC category. The NDP have the incumbent advantage, but their low polling numbers makes this a potential Liberal gain. Toronto-Danforth may end up being the last NDP fortress still standing in Toronto after this election.
15 10 08 Amnesty
65.94.102.195
Since Davenport is my home riding, I took a look at how the parties were doing in terms of signs with about 9 days to go before Election Day. In terms of Signs in the riding, Julie Dzerowicz Liberals is leading in the Northern Davenport streets with 60% to Cash NDP 25% and Stein's Green 15%. This is very interesting to see so many Green signs this time around. I expect the Green vote may go up. In the central region of Davenport it is closer with Cash NDP is leading with 50% to 45% Dzerowicz Liberals to 5% Dan Stein Greens. In southern Davenport it is Cash leading with about 50% to 40% for Dzerowicz Liberals and Stein is getting about 10%. As I have friends volunteering and working on both campaigns of the NDP and Liberals in Davenport, they all think this riding is going to be way closer result than last time. It is very possible that the Liberals may win this riding as Liberal numbers have improved drastically from August, while the NDP numbers have dropped. However, NDP still seems very optimistic about this riding and their chances of winning it despite the drop in NDP numbers nationally. Andrew cash may lose some votes as he was in a controversy two years ago over a CBC conflict of interest while being MP. Cash receives $40000 a year from the CBC on helping write songs for the show dragons den. He sent a letter to the ethics commissioner by making a commitment in not participating in votes or debates about the CBC as MP. However, he broke the promise and continues to advocate for the CBC. He voted and participated in debates about the CBC in parliament while he said he wouldn't do it but he did. He stated he may have a private interest with the CBC but he broke the rules by breaking his own commitment when he said he wouldn't participate but he did. This was a clear violation as he gave his word and broke it to the ethics commissioner and to Canadians. A number of reporters from the media grilled him with questions and questioned his actions and Cash just seems to avoid the questions and say he champions the CBC by giving artists a voice. Of course, Cash is going to keep promoting and loving the CBC because they are paying $40000 a year. So, if the CBC does well he does well. This is why some voters don't like politicians like Cash.
http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2013/02/20/ndp-draws-fire-over-cbc-conflict-of-interest
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/andrew-cash-historys-most-conflicted-monster/
15 10 07 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Reporter David Akin said that Tom Mulcair visited Davenport yesterday and that if Mulcair is visiting NDP-held ridings like Davenport this late in the campaign, it may be a sign that the NDP is weaker here than originally expected.
I still give the edge to the NDP's Cash, but one to keep an eye on in case the NDP drops further.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
69.196.183.203
Funny how things change...
Current numbers for the Liberals in Ontario would suggest this riding is in play. My money is still on Cash though (sorry for the pun!).
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
69.196.183.203
Funny how things change...
Current numbers for the Liberals in Ontario would suggest this riding is in play. My money is still on Cash though (sorry for the pun!).
15 09 14 ML
69.77.168.131
Last week's Mainstreet poll had the NDP leading in the old city limits. I think this remains the safest Toronto NDP seat after Danforth. The Liberals would need to overcome almost a 10,000 vote deficit from 2011. Many posters have commented on Jonah Schein's loss in last year's provincial election as an indication that the Grits have a chance at this riding. I think the political dynamics are much different. While it can be argued that Mulcair, like Horwath, has pushed the party to closer to the centre, Mulcair and the federal NDP platform speak to the sensibilities of the urban chattering class much better than the folksy bread-and-butter populism of Horwath and the Ontario NDP. Also, the provincial liberal candidate Martins had strong ties to the Portuguese community, something that the federal liberal candidate does not have.
15 09 14 jeff316
206.177.43.76
While Andrew Cash has been at Queen's Park singin' about injustice of C51, the Liberals have been cleaning up many of his lawnsigns. Even Green Daniel Stern is outsigning Cash in the north end. This may be a rout.
15 09 07 Nick M.
207.228.78.224
NDP hold. With no Portuguese Candidate. About those signs, neighbourhood is notorious for sign stealing. Also, Portuguese and The few Italians around will allow all parties to put political signs on their property. They are called a diplomatic house.
15 09 04 Tony Ducey
71.7.240.66
Think the NDP and Cash will hold on here, from what I've seen he's a solid, but not spectacular, MP.
15 09 03 Amnesty
76.64.23.192
This riding is still very Liberal in some neighbourhoods and much will depend on how well the Liberal Party of Canada is doing nationally. If the Liberal numbers are still surging in the 416 area towards election day, expect to see a riding like Davenport be too close to call or even fall into the Liberal column. Residents in this riding have supported the Liberals strongly in the past, and it is represented provincially by the Liberals. There are many new houses built in the industrial areas of the junction triangle since 2011. The new foundry loft homes built in Davenport brought in many Liberal voters and the new Queen street and Sudbury condos brought in some more Liberal voters. All those polls went to the Liberals provincially, so it will be interesting to see if the same goes federally. The northern part of the riding of Davenport is still pretty Liberal.
The Liberals was able to get around 11,000 votes here last time. Some of the Liberal votes went to the Conservatives last election in 2011. Historically, the Davenport conservative vote would be around 10% or about 3000 votes in this riding. Last election it was 14% and over 5000 votes. If the conservative vote goes back to traditional levels of support, about 2000 of those votes will most likely go to the Liberals rather than NDP. This benefits the Liberals.
Elizabeth May did quite well in the first debate and outperformed Tom Mulcair in the debate. She will probably continue to do well in the debates and expect to see the Green votes to do slightly better here. The Green candidate, Daniel Stein, in this riding also ran in the provincial election last year in 2014 and will probably do a bit better running second time around and has some name recognition, with some knowledge of the riding. Expect the Greens to take some votes away from the NDP. The Green party got about 1300 votes last time. If they get 2000, 3000 or even 4000 votes in this riding, the NDP votes will be much lower for Andrew Cash.
There are more and more Julie Dzerowicz Liberal signs being put up across the riding. Andrew Cash is still leading in signs but the Liberals are making some decent gains. The results will be much closer this time.
15 08 30 Mark
76.10.162.122
Andrew Cash's signs went up mighty quick ... but if you look, they are slowly being taken down in spots. The only thing saving him is that Julie Dz and the Liberals are running a moribund local campaign. The only thing saving her is that she still has 60 some odd days left. The NDP implosion (which will be forthcoming) will render Davenport a tight Liberal win.
15 08 29 Mark
76.10.162.122
Trudeau has the same insubstantial feel-good buzz as Kathleen Wynne.
Trudeau has the same lefty economic talking points (backed up by a much more center-right agenda) as Kathleen Wynne.
If the Liberals had a Portuguese candidate, this wouldn't even be in question...but Davenport should shift back to the Liberals under these circumstances.
15 08 27 jeff316
206.177.43.76
Davenport could get dicey.
I was one of those that projected any Cash win would happen over my dead body – and I still think it had lots to do with residual anti-Iggy, pro-Jack, “why not?” vote parking – but obviously I've been pretty wrong on this one so don't know what to think.
Cash has worked this riding to the bone, is locally solid, has an enviable pan-Toronto profile and seems to suit the increasingly white collar, two-parent, two-kid, home-owning, one-car, farmers-markets-don't-need-real-farmers demographic. And given that Jonah Schein held nearly 40 percent, *even in provincial defeat* (wow!), one has to think Cash's chances under these circumstances are pretty good.
But as we've seen, what wins in Hamilton and Niagara and Timmins doesn't sell well in this mish-mash of an urban riding that features extremes of both wealth and ethnicity.
And Trudeau, for all his weaknesses, plays well here. He is much more appealing to the hipsters and young professionals of Queen Street – for whom being “progressive” is hating Harper and loving craft-beer – as well as the aging Portugeezers in the north end, many of whom are solid Liberal voters with fond memories of the elder Trudeau.
Without the relatively benign Harper of 2011, half-interested, not locally-aware soft-left and soft-right voters will likely flock to the Liberals.
So, who knows? Davenport could fall in line or completely buck national results.
15 08 19 NorthDavObserver
209.161.216.118
Cash has proven himself to be a solid local MP; very visible and active on issues resonating with the community. His campaign was rolling from day 1 with a large number of signs throughout the riding and he has been spotted canvassing daily througout the riding.
Meanwhile, almost three weeks after the election was called the Liberals have zero signs (that's not hyperbole; there are no Liberal signs to be found in Davenport) and even the north end, typically the strongest for the Liberals, has received little, if any, campaign literature. Either the local Liberals are massively disorganized in this riding or the national campaign has abandoned it to try and protect the ridings in Toronto they already hold.
15 08 13 DavenportLib
65.94.101.45
The political environment has changed a lot since the 2011 election. There have been two provincial elections that have happened and the Liberals won them. Federally, Jack Layton of the NDP has passed away, and new leader Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton. Expect to see some NDP votes go back to either to the Conservatives, Liberals or Greens because of the NDP leadership change. The Liberal party of Canada doesn`t have the weak, uncharismatic, boring Michael Igtatieff as leader anymore and they have the new, stronger, more charismatic, energized, young Justin Trudeau. Trudeau will help the Liberals do much better this time in 2015 than last election of 2011.
The Liberals are polling anywhere from 26-32% at the moment in 2015 and that is much higher than the 18-22% they got in 2011. So expect to see a better result for the Liberals in this riding. The Liberals are still going pretty decent in the Toronto 416 area and better than the NDP in Ontario regionally. Expect to see anywhere from 2000-5000 more votes for the Liberals here, depending on voter turnout, on top of the 11,000 votes the Liberals got last time. Which means the Liberals can get anywhere from 13000-16000 votes here based on the polling at the moment. A good portion of this will come from Andrew Cash votes going to the Liberals.

The Davenport Candidates are different for the Liberals, Conservatives and the Greens this time. Julie Dzerowicz is representing the Liberals, Carlos Oliviera for the Conservatives and Daniel Stein for the Greens. The conservatives don't have name recognition of Teresa Rodrigues anymore, so expect to see a slight decline in the conservative votes here. Daniel Stein has some name recognition for the Greens for running provincially last year, so expect to see a slight increase for the Greens. Julie Dzerowicz is not Mario Silva. She is a new candidate that doesn't have Silva's tarnished record. The Liberals are running a female candidate here, for the first time federally in this riding and will probably do much better in a riding like Davenport in 2015 than in 2011.
15 07 20 Dr Bear
66.49.146.118
Earlier I was certain that this would be a strong Liberal target but I held off on any comments, waiting to see if they go a star candidate or not. Things have since changed and all evidence now is indicating this will stay with the NDP.
15 07 01 HFoster
192.0.138.72
Should be an NDP hold. Davenport was won in 2011, and if the NDP is on track to form government, they should hold the seat once again. Cash has for the most part been under the radar, but on the flip side he is also controversy-free. The Liberals will finish a distant second, and the other parties will not be in contention.
15 05 30 A.S.
99.233.100.50
Given the scale of Cash's 2011 victory, he could well have won Davenport even if the Orange Crush didn't happen--indeed, the NDP potential was *always* here, but for half a century of 'multicultural Liberalism' anchored by Charles Caccia's long and left-friendly tenure. Oh, Justin *could* still rekindle something--especially given how Davenport has (or at least had, pre-gentrification) characteristics of a Toronto Papineau-equivalent--but with rumours of a 'star candidate' having come to naught, it's looking like a vain dream now. And sure, the Grits could also look to their provincial equivalents having defeated Jonah Schein last year; but Jonah still managed 40% in defeat, the best share of any losing ONDPer in the 416--not bad for a vulnerable freshman hampered by the Horwath backlash. Heck, with Andrew Cash looking ever more like a TV-movie Tommy Douglas, for the NDP to throw *him* under the bus would be sacrilege.
15 05 29 ML
69.77.168.131
The Liberals just picked a low profile Queen's Park staffer Julie Dzerowicz to run in the riding. I noted in my earlier prediction that if the Liberals were able to select a 'star candidate' then they could make the riding competitive. However, following the Grits' selection I think Cash has solidified his frontrunner status.
15 04 23 Docere
50.101.245.47
Andrew Cash won by an astounding 2-1 margin in the orange wave and is very personally popular, not only among the hipsters and young professionals in the south but in the working class ethnic communities in the north too. Even if the NDP falls back to traditional levels in Ontario, I expect this to stay NDP.
15 04 05 MGK
64.229.244.244
I wasn't surprised that Cash won last time, but I was not expecting a 2-1 margin. I think he's personally popular in the riding, and the NDP has been developing a strong local organization. With a Liberal resurgence this one can go either way, but right now I'd give the edge to Cash.
15 03 29 Jason
64.228.197.142
Andrew Cash should be able to hold this riding for the NDP. Cash is the type of representative that stays until he retires.
Mulcair appeals more to urban Toronto than Horwath, so there won't be any NDP collapse in downtown Toronto like what happened last June.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Like most urban core ridings in Toronto this is a progressive riding that could go either way. If its clear the Tories are going to win or clear they will lose, I think the NDP will hold this but if its a nail biter, and the Liberals are ahead, I think a lot of voters will vote strategically for the Liberals to defeat the Tories.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I would give the edge to the NDP's Cash for now, but I'm not sure it's a slam dunk yet. The riding was a long-term Liberal area until the Layton Wave in 2011, and the Ontario Liberals just won the riding back with Cristina Martins last year. It also depends on who is more popular in this area of Toronto in the fall - Trudeau or Mulcair? Cash got a boost from Layton, whereas Ignatieff dragged the Liberals down. There could be some reversal of fortune this year. Edge to Cash for now, but something to keep an eye on.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
70.26.27.187
From what I hear, Andrew Cash is a great MP for the riding. While NDP seats will drop all over the country, he will be re-elected.
15 03 26 Michael Anderson
69.158.47.209
Are people really talking about Olivia Chow's coattails? Good grief, a third-place mayoral candidate from nearly a year prior is going to lift Andrew Cash to victory? She couldn't even get Alejandra Bravo elected in this riding -- and Bravo has a lot more to offer the northern half of Davenport in particular than Andrew Cash.
And that's weird, right? Davenport is famously one of the most left-wing ridings: polling across several elections has consistently shown that residents are among the most pro-equality, anti-gun, pro-choice, anti-poverty, pro-environment, and even pro-taxation citizens in the country, certainly in English-speaking Canada.
So does this mean the stars have finally aligned? Has this seat -- which, by all logic and evidence, ought to be one of the safest NDP seats anywhere in the country -- finally found its rightful place with the NDP?
The 2011 election was a smashing good result for Andrew Cash, but let's not forget that 2011 was the year then-Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff did so poorly in Toronto that he lost his own seat over in Toby-Lakeshore. Silva was already one of the wobblier incumbents, and very few people were surprised to see him go down like a skittle.
But this is also exactly the sort of seat Justin Trudeau needs to win if he's ever going to haul his way back to a majority government (goodness knows he's going to have better chance of sweeping back downtown Toronto than he will winning an equivalent number of seats out of Calgary or Edmonton), and Liberals have shown they know how to play Davenport like a fiddle.
If they can find the right candidate, especially if they can run someone credible with young urban professionals (which means a break from the past: less Charles Caccia, more Chrystia Freeland), I think they're in with a chance.
And, as it happens, I hear Gerrard Kennedy's looking for a job...
15 03 25 Mr. Dave
96.30.160.179
The constituents in this riding swapped their 'Silva' for 'Cash' in droves last time, and Andrew Cash has shown himself not to be an embarrassment.
He should be able to hold this seat with a comfortable margin.
15 03 24 JC
69.165.234.184
This is going to be possibly one of only two seats held by the NDP in Toronto at the end of this election, right now Cash would have the advantage because he's a good constituency MP and the three currently running for the Liberal nomination are unknowns, but the Liberals say they have a prominent Canadian they want for this seat and we'll have no idea who it is until they announced it.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.32
There was not so much an 'Orange Crush' in Toronto as a Liberal collapse.
NDP have built up their federal organizing in Toronto and transferred so much of their municipal machine to federal that it's hard to imagine a loss here where they are most motivated to hold seats downtown. I am in general predicting NDP holds in 416 Toronto and this like Toronto-Danforth is a likely hold. Olivia Chow's mayoralty run, though she lost as had Jack in the smaller original City of Toronto, established and bolstered a city-wide NDP organization that is going to be not worth the effort for the Liberals to try to break. Not when Trudeau can spend his time in a lot of suburban #LibCon ridings and gain far more seats by doing that.
15 03 23 ML
69.77.168.131
The NDP's numbers in the 416 have dropped since 2011, but I think this riding and Toronto-Danforth will remain orange. Andrew Cash won in an unexpected landslide in 2011 by 10,000 votes over incumbent Mario Silva. Unless the Liberals select a star candidate I don't think the Liberals can win this riding back.



Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster