Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 12:56:42

Constituency Profile


Brandt, Kevin

Ferguson, Rob

Laferriere, Marc

McColeman, Phil

Takacs, Danielle

Turmel, The Engineer

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2950.54%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (255/255 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Phil McColeman


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15 10 18 jar
This is going to be very close between Mark and Phil, Danielle has no chance. Paris and the rest of the county will probably determine winner. trudeau has not even visited the riding once, that tells you about the lib chances
15 10 15 Spx
I think I'd put this one at least into the TCTC colomn. With the numbers for the Conservatives looking worse from day to day a couple of ridings seem to be now getting quite competitive with Brantford-Brant being one of them. If St. Catharines and Kitchener-South turn red, this one should be right behind.
15 10 15 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals are surging in Ontario and this is a riding that could flip to the Liberals now that they're flirting with majority territory. A Conservative supporter's bizarre 'sex with a sheep' comment sure won't be winning the Conservatives any favours here either. TCTC, but the momentum could carry the Liberals to win this one if they keep up their momentum.
15 10 14 Stevo
This is not solidly Conservative turf and should really be changed to TCTC until the final batch of poll numbers. Brantford can switch Liberal very easily if it appears they will indeed win a solid plurality.
15 10 13 jar
I f you take a close look around the riding Liberal support is no where to be found, atleast visibly. There are more Laferriere signs in non traditional NDP areas then ever before. Danielle Takasz is an unknown candidate in the riding and it shows.The Levac liberals are just that supporters of Dave Levac. If anyone besides Phil wins this riding it will be Laferriere.
15 10 11 JIM
With the Liberal vote going up dramatically over the last two weeks and NDP falling even more in Ontario especially there is no way the NDP are in contention in this riding anymore. The local NDP keep talking about a 3 week old local poll by Environics that was a small sample and in fact had the Liberals and NDP in a statistical tie, that's a fact that's absolutely beyond dispute. If it showed anything it was that the Conservatives were clearly in 1st at that time, outside the margin of error. The NDP are actually openly distorting the poll saying that it showed the Liberals in distant 3rd (their candidate himself said this even), a little surprised as they're clearly setting up their own supporters to be let down and don't seem to mind if they split the vote and help Phil McColeman, the Conservative candidate. Since the time of that 3 week old poll Liberals have gone up about 10 points in Ontario and the NDP fallen about 10 points, there is no way they go from being 9 points behind in the Environnics poll to having any chance at victory now. Brantford-Brant is not an island, the local NDP are putting up Mulcair signs there while his popularity keeps falling everyday and running ads paid for by the national party using the national message that isn't resonating. Takacs and Trudeau on the other hand keep seeing more supporters coming to them, with Levac's support and that of local councillors and Bob Nixon and even the Anybody but Harper farmer, she's got the momentum and more volunteers than the other campaigns. With Liberal support going up every day across Ontario, I think more strategic voters will come to see where the real support lies and will rally behind her enough to put her over the top. I've already seen spots in town where there were NDP signs and now there are Liberal ones. That the local NDP have sent the supporters to launch false personal attacks about Takacs and are focused more on her than McColeman tells you they're not really focused on victory anymore. At least the Liberals aren't deceiving voters with their advertising.
15 10 04 ron jamula
ndp polling has this race very close. Phil is quietly keeping Harper out of this riding. Phil still the favourite but not a sure thing. 300 people at Mulcair rally and many not traditional NDP supporters. This is a two way race.
15 09 28 jar
Lets not forget that lead now has this as a swing riding and has done local polling. Phil is leading But Mark is running a strong second. Still time for the progressive vote to galvanize behind Marc
15 09 22 prognosticator15
It will take quite an effort and quite a huge upset to defeat a popular incumbent who last time got more votes than Liberals and the NDP COMBINED. Since 2008, Phil McColeman has managed to establish strong personal following that allows him to weather the storms of national and provincial opinion trends, and even in case of Conservatives' poor polling elsewhere, his support is unlikely to fall more than a couple of percentage points at most. I would say a locally high profile candidate like this would be able to poll in the 40-50% range for sure in this mixed urban/rural riding doing well in both sections, even above 50% if all stars align. Perhaps, without some rural neighborhoods it would be slightly more competitive, but not in this election, and it is not only about the number of electoral signs. Centre-right leaning of the riding is combined with candidate's personality and profile. It is of importance that he was on right committees in Ottawa, electorally speaking (Construction, Human Resources, Disabilities etc.) allowing him to bring much local praise to himself, and to promote Conservative electoral agenda that relies on many of these issues. He brought some useful funding (or perhaps, 'pork'?) to quite a few community projects, sports arenas and such, and enough voters realize other candidates would have no comparable power. It is more difficult to say who is second here, since no other candidate has personal profile and political strength comparable to Conservative candidate, and both NDP and Liberals have a degree of base support. Levac's provincial role does create some profile for the Liberals, but provincial race is of little value for comparison purposes as issues and dynamics are too different. I suspect anti-Cons vote will be split about evenly between the two parties, and even if one indeed gets far ahead of the other, it will not be enough to unite all this vote...not in this riding. Typically I try to only call races a few days before the election, and this site has already called a good 50-60 ridings prematurely, long before many swing voters made their minds, but in this case, assuming continuous good groundwork and lack of last minute anti-Cons sleaze (which can always happen, as in 2014 provincial vote, with last minute unsubstantiated voter suppression accusations in London possibly swinging provincial election), I am confident the riding is among those that can already be put into Conservative column. And not to forget, the Great One has now officially endorsed Stephen Harper (smile !)- this will play well here, but Cons will not lose it anyway.
15 09 20 jar
This is definitely a riding that is in play. As with all incumbents they do have an advantage and though Phil is not that visible in the riding he is popular. The challenger is definitely Mark Laferriere. The liberals have an unknown candidate and way too much ground to make up. A liberal win here is a pipe dream
15 09 08 jeff316
I'm breaking my own rules here. I only make submissions for ridings that I know rather intimately. (I've never seen the value in re-reporting polls, updating the latest 308 predictions or making predictions uninformed by local insight.) But for Brant, I'm going to wade in even though I know little about the riding, its candidates and its voters. Phil McColeman has this riding plastered with his signs. After spending the weekend all over Brantford, Paris and Brant County, I have never seen so many private property signs in years of election watching. It was impressive. They say signs don't vote, but if even only a portion of his vote he will have this locked up.
15 09 07 KRiS
I've had an opportunity to research each candidate, inquire with them and speak to others in the riding. I'm of the opinion that this is a two horse race between Takacs (Liberals) and McColeman (CPC). With all of the controversies and obvious issues of the Conservatives I believe Takacs can and likely will take this by the smallest of margins. Despite what any of these campaigns say within their opening statement, spend enough time chatting with them and they begin to talk about the deeper stuff. It seems all three parties' internal info also indicate this, which has caught the NDP team off guard. They thought Marc's history and name would give them an advantage over new comer Takacs but her ability to rally her team and get out the message has clearly paid off. It seems that McColeman has the money war won but volunteer and open support is favouring Takacs. This might explain why Marc has lately been providing very liberal estimates of his team size, attendees to events, etc. it may also explain why some on his team are trying to convince voters that Takacs is an outsider, which is clearly not the case. I'm not the biggest fan of the CPC but at least McColeman seems to be attempting to be respectful. I expected more from an NDP candidate that used to seem genuine.
15 09 02 R.O.
This is a riding where I could see ndp holding or improving there numbers from 2011 . but current mp Phil Mccoleman has held the riding since 2008 . and has support in the riding and remains a likeable mp. This is also somewhat of an urban/rural mixed riding. Its mostly city of Brantford but also includes surrounding rural areas and smaller towns . its still liberal at provincial level but likely only cause Dave Levac is speaker of Ontario legislature and personally popular in this area. I still think Phil Mcoleman has somewhat of an advantage here as he is incumbent and better known in riding . but this is generally a competitive riding and often decided by a close margin.
15 08 07 David Ross Mann
Just the facts:
Brantford-Brant 2014 donations, transfers, total revenue.
Source: http://www.elections.ca/WPAPPS/WPF/EN/EDA?act=C2&returntype=1&option=2&queryid=9a46fc0b89084080adbaa9bb8d67d5c6
CPC 50,393.41
15 08 01 A.S.
Funny how the name 'Derek Blackburn' hasn't been raised re past federal NDP history here--then again, his was a very individualized case. But even if the Blackburn past means extra oil to the gears, the hitting-the-ground-running-after-2011 way Laferriere's gone about it suggests that if we truly are headed to a NDP gov't or at least plurality, we'd be looking more at a Laferriere landslide than a 2-or-3-way squeaker. Sort of like the equivalent of Lethbridge or 'Joe Ceci' Calgary seats in the Alberta election.
15 07 06 Brant Oracle
I think this one is way too close to call right now but I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals pulled it out. The few active NDP in town are a vocal and energetic group who have a good grasp of social media. But it doesn't take much effort to realize they don't have the man power on the ground to do all the things they really need to get the word out. It's the same issue that the provincial candidate had in the last election. She had a good but small group of people around her but they couldn't overcome the lack of overall support.
McColeman's time is coming to an end. His tired routine of being a no show at community events was brutally obvious at this past Canada Day celebration. This has been a vocal concern about him for years. He's only really maintained office here because of backlash over St. Amand doing the same thing prior and weak Liberal showings in general. McColeman at best sends letters congratulating organizers of successful events but his absenteeism is made noticeable when someone like Dave Levac shows up in person each time. McColeman isn't well liked at best and is seen as a trough feeder at worst.
Takacs is new, young and inexperienced. She has a strong team behind her and she's clearly hit the ground running. Will that be enough for her to overcome some concerns? It's hard to say. She has to overcome the challenge of experienced opponents with familiar names, poor Ontario Liberal sentiments and the nervousness over Trudeau. These may seem small but combined can be a campaign killer. She does have the well-liked Levac giving her support and that can go a long way.
I think it's too close to call though I'd guess that the Liberals have the slightest of advantages right now over the NDP, but it's tedious. Barring any Liberal catastrophes, there's a good chance that the NDP vote collapses towards the Liberals in the end to guarantee that McColeman doesn't get re-elected
15 06 30 Ellen
This is turning out to be quite a race.
- Sun News' top political reporter David Akin has predicted Brantford-Brant one will go NDP in October.
- Laurier University has a political science department that has a really good record of riding predictions and has this has a too close to call riding between the Conservatives and the NDP and have neighbouring Ancaster-Hamilton going NDP.
-ThreeHundredandEight has this as a close one between the Conservatives and NDP with the Liberals in deep third in Brantford-Brant.
- TooCloseToCall.ca has the Cons and The NDP as only 2 points apart in this riding.
- Current MP Phil McColeman was quoted in the Brant News as saying this is going to be a really close election too.
The Conservatives have been working really hard here and McColeman has the advantages of incumbency but his party and leader are not well received. The NDP has been working really hard here and consistently with the same candidate for this election as last time. Laferriere did really well here last time despite an organized strategic vote campaign against him. He is also well known and well liked. The Liberals have a likable candidate too but have only been really active publicly since January and she doesn't have the same name recognition as the other two candidates and the party is still hurting from 2011 here. Reorganization takes time.
Liberals have a chance next time if they stay consistent in my opinion.
This time it will be very close - I bet within 1000 votes between the NDP and the Conservatives. Get out the vote efforts will be the biggest factor.
If people want change the riding will go to the NDP. If they want the status quo it will go Conservative. I get the sense change will win the day but it will be a nail-biter.
15 06 19 Full
This is going to be an interesting and hard fought race in Brantford-Brant. First lets look at what happened in the most recent election. In that election you had a Conservative incumbent in Phil McColeman, a former Liberal MP in Lloyd St. Amand, and a new face for the NDP in Marc Laferriere. Early on this looked like it would be another Liberal/Conservative show-down but attention around town quickly turned to a young Laferriere who was showing up at most local events, hosting his own innovative events, and earning the attention of his own party and thus attracting Jack Layton to the riding on multiple occasions. This changed the dynamic in the riding federally. Even without the national NDP surge it became apparent that McColeman's main challenger would be Laferriere and that is how things ended up on election night. Fast forward to 2015. McColeman and Laferriere are back with a new face in Danielle Tacaks for the Liberals. This election will start with an entirely different local narrative and it is sure to increase the attention to this riding. McColeman has had more time to increase his profile in the riding as the MP and he has worked to secure a strong base of support. He will be tough to beat. Laferriere has grown as a politician as well. His campaign was very grassroots in 2011 and while that element remains, he has also matured as a community leader and campaigner. He has worked to broaden his support base while speaking intelligently about local and national issues. His campaign has been off and running for some time and he will fight hard to win this one. Tacaks has been working hard to increase her visibility in the riding appearing at some local events and hosting gatherings of her own. That being said, she is up against a fading party nationally and a strong local perception that this is shaping up to be an Orange/Blue race in Brantford-Brant. If she sticks around for another election look for her to grow as a politician but it doesn't look like it is in the cards for her this time. What shouldn't be discounted in this election is the riding boundary shift. This change took away some of McColeman's base of support and benefits Laferriere. This one should be close. If Harper convinces Canadians that we need to stay the course, then McColeman may again come out on top. Should voters be looking for change, expect Marc Laferriere to be the next MP for this riding.
15 06 11 seasaw
This one should stay Conservative, I know MV thinks Liberals have a shot and they elected 4 MP's, but in reality they've only elected 2, one in Laborador, and it was a close riding they lost, one that has almost always elected a Liberal and the other Trinity-Spadina, they've always done well there and they had Adam Vaughn.
As for the NDP, if you look at their standings in polls, right now it shows that only close ridings could change hands and this one wasn't close.
15 04 09 Jason
Not a Conservative stronghold, but I could see this one staying Conservative for one more election cycle. Vote splitting among progressives, Stephen Harper's competitiveness in Ontario and McColeman's incumbency are the factors.
15 04 17 Nicky V
I've met each of the candidates in person and I think this will be a tight race between the NDP and the Conservatives. The incumbent is a Conservative who benefited big from the collapse of the Liberal vote in the last election (especially in the rural parts of the riding).
Incumbency advantage (lots of mailouts) will help the Cons but the NDP here is very organized and has been having large events consistently over the last few years and especially the last few months - 200 people attending a local NDP event is not unusual here.
In the last election the New Democrats spent 1/3 of what the Liberals and Conservatives spent but the Liberals failed to win even one poll here in 2011 and they won't have that same kind of money again. The Greens had their vote splint in half to about 1500 votes too. The Liberal and Green candidates are nice but so are the Con and NDP candidates. The difference is that the Liberal and Greens are new and their names aren't out to the general public. The Liberals also had some well publicized controversy about their nomination here, people left the riding association and there been a lack of clarity about where the Liberal candidate lives that has been in the paper too.
The MP has incumbency and the NDP candidate is on TV, in the paper and seen all over the riding all the time. Both their name recognition is very high in person and online - I think the NDP and Cons will battle it out but the Cons have failed to fulfil some local promises on things like land claims etc. Going to be one to watch.
15 04 19 M.V.
The posts here boosting the NDP are people playing up past results while denying current realities. The Liberals have sent 4 MPS to the riding in less than the last 3 months, not something you do with a caucus of 36 unless the riding is being seen as a likely pickup for the Party. I can certainly bet that the overwhelming majority of residents do not know the NDP even have a candidate outside of Eagle Place where they have to be fair invested a lot of resources campaigning. A campaign office at this point is optics, do they not have volunteers offering up their homes for training and volunteer activities? I am guessing the Liberals end up with a larger and better located one and still have more money in the bank. Liberals definitely have the most local volunteers and have hit up far more homes on the phone and at the door from what I can tell based on the number of people who have told me they've received calls or literature in different corners of the riding. Their candidate has more relevant experience for being an MP has been involved in the local community her whole life and is well received where she goes. This is close race between CPC and Liberal with NDP well behind much like nationally. There is no evidence the Liberal candidate is struggling that's just a baseless personal attack typical of a party that is worried about losing.
15 04 04 P.V.
This riding should be a Con hold. But The NDP are having huge turnouts. They are holding regular fundraisers, and have announced a campaign office opening months before the election. This riding has a large and active Veteran community which normally supports the Cons, but not this time around. Seniors are now splitting between the CONS and the NDP and that's not good for the Conservatives MP. The boundary adjustments also favour the NDP. Liberals used to be strong in this riding, but their candidate seems to struggle. The NDP Candidate has been working the community and the doors since the 2011 election. Everywhere he goes people know him. He is more known then the MP. Expect Trudeamania to take a pass on Brantford-Brant while the NDP will continue to make gains.
15 03 29 monkey
I would give the edge to the Tories but with Brantford being a strongly blue collar city, I could see an NDP or Liberal win if progressive voters unite behind one of the two parties. The main problem is this riding includes some rural portions and the Tories tend to pile up big margins in the rural parts meaning the Liberals or NDP have to compensate by not winning big but by a decent margin in Brantford (its about 75% in Brantford and 25% rural portions).
15 03 26 D.M.
With NDP numbers softening in Ontario it's hard to see this one going NDP. The ABC movement is terrible at actually getting behind a specific candidate and I see that trend continuing, if anything they'd get behind the Liberal candidate in this riding.
The city of Brantford could be a pretty close fight but the rural peripheries should give this a Conservative hold.
Not an impossible riding for the Liberals to pick up but doubtful at this point, Trudeau and the LPC seems to be focusing their efforts at Quebec and larger cities than this.
15 03 25 Mr. Dave
Marc Laferriere is running for the second time here for the NDP.
After his debut performance in 2011, coming in a strong second with 28.5% of the vote, and the Liberals having a new candidate with former M.P. Lloyd St. Amand no longer on the ballot, the ABC movement could see this riding defeating the Conservative.

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