Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Brampton South

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:35:24

Constituency Profile


Hatton, Shaun

Sangha, Amarjit

Seeback, Kyle

Sidhu, Sonia

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1860.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Brampton West
   (157/175 polls, 89.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kyle Seeback

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (18/175 polls, 10.79% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Eve Adams


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15 09 15 Dr.Bear
Pro-vin-cial! Education is provincial jurisdiction, not federal. Voting against the Liberals/for the Conservatives over the sex ed curriculum is as pointless as voting against a particular party because I am dissatisfied with downtown parking rates. Most voters understand that and the ones who are that fired up over the sex ed curriculum are probably solid socially conservative CPC voters as it is. Not going to be a factor in this race.
15 09 10 George
I think this will be a close one but the Ontario sex ed curriculum might give Kyle Seeback the edge to hold the seat.
15 08 25 CGD
Unless something dramatic happens, the Conservatives are going to lose 10-15% of the support they had in Ontario in 2011. That means ridings like this one that they took from the Liberals by a hair will go Liberal this time. Liberals are lined up to gain in Ontario overall, this will be a pick up for them barring major changes in Ontario polls. Especially in the 905.
15 08 16 A.S.
The *real* 'Brampton Centre' riding, IOW the one which contains the heart of Old Brampton. i.e. Bill Davis Tory heartland--no wonder this is the seat that Seeback's chosen to run in. Though for the sake of counterbalance, there's plenty of Lib/NDP-leaning South Asian subdivision south of Steeles; and let's not forget how successful Kathleen Wynne was in wooing that Old Ontario Bill Davis Toryism, i.e. there's plenty of latent 'you disappointed us, Steve' vote to be had But, by whom? (Put it this way: if Brampton's set for an unprecedented NDP near-sweep, Brampton South is the likeliest to be a 'St. Paul's Liberal' holdout--kind of like Hallam among the Sheffield seats.)
15 08 04 R.O.
Current mp Kyle Seeback is running for re-election in this riding. Its one of those ridings that will remain competitive and close each election . and generally a conservative/liberal race although ndp seem to be doing better in brampton than years past. Current mp has somewhat of an advantage here as he has been mp for 4 years now . liberal mp he beat in 2011 not running this time and new liberal candidate not really that well known.
15 03 30 Fairview Resident
Andrew Kania held the old Brampton West for the Liberals when the seat opened up in 2008 and the Tories won Ontario by 5.4. Seeback won it in 2011 by 10% when the Liberals lost ON by 20%. The redistributed margin for the new seat is the same as Brampton West in 2011. Polls now show a horserace in Ontario. Seeback probably hasn't been prominent or effective enough to beat the spread, but we'll have to see who the Liberals nominate and whether the Tories can regain a lead in Ontario.
15 03 30 JC
Kyle Seeback switched ridings to run in Brampton South in hopes it will be friendlier to him. He really has accomplished nothing of notability and is probably headed down in defeat. Not to mention that Seeback doesn't even live in the riding, he lives in Amaranth almost an hour away from it and is likely headed towards defeat.
15 03 29 monkey
If an election were called today, I think the Liberals would probably take this, but not by a huge margin so if the Tories get a small uptick in the polls in Ontario they may have a shot. With the NDP being quite weak here usually Tory support a few points above whatever they provincewide, while the Liberals are usually around 10 points above their provincewide support so if the Tories have a 5 point lead or greater in Ontario they should hold this, otherwise it will probably swing over to the Liberals.

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