Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:22:54

Constituency Profile


Brassard, John

Clark, Myrna

Nail, Gary

North, Bonnie

Sakula, Jeff

Wilson, Colin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2580.63%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (128/188 polls, 67.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Patrick Brown

   (60/188 polls, 32.56% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Van Loan


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15 10 12 R.O.
From what I have seen this open riding is a race between John Brassard and Colin Wilson . Brassard has not ran federally before but has been a city councillor in barrie for a number of years. Colin Wilson was the liberal candidate for Barrie in 2011 and came in 3rd that year. Myrna Clark has ran for the ndp a number of times in barrie and she is likely to do well here . since barrie was redistributed so much this exact riding has not existed before so its tough to get a feel for but had it existed in 2011 it would of stayed conservative.
15 10 11 Barrie Resident
This seat could go to either Conservatives or NDP. The candidates here are all strong ones, so it will be a campaign decided by organization. From what I've seen, the NDP have the most volunteers, and are covering lots of ground every day. The Conservatives have a smaller, but consistent campaign. The Liberals, however, seem to be in disarray, combined with their anemic third-place showing in the last election. This is more of a door-knocking race between the Conservatives and the NDP.
15 09 04 DM
This is a new riding it is wide open for Cons or NDP to win Myrna Clark is a better candidate then the others and is running a strong campaign with a lot of volunteers. this is one to watch.
15 08 17 A.S.
It's the stronger CPC of the new Barrie ridings; yet curiously, the NDP's also a hairsbreadth stronger here too--and even more curious, the Innisfil part's stronger for the NDP than the Barrie part. (As in Georgina, it's a historical thing, going back to the Simcoe shoreline's blue-collar resort-community roots--Wasaga has that element going, too.) Maybe that's why 2011 Barrie second-placer Myrna Clark's running here--not that the odds are in her favour (hey, one can hope).
15 08 16 Swellow
This is Patrick Brown country, and considering his new high profile, I do not think this seat will show animosity to his successor.
15 08 03 R.O.
Patrick Brown has won the ontario pc leadership so will not be running here . conservatives have a new candidate city councillor John Brassard . even without Patrick Brown its still a fairly tory friendly area and riding less urban and more suburban than original barrie riding. It can sometimes be a swing riding and liberals have won here but mostly seems to vote conservative. ndp have never been much of a factor federally so be interesting to see if that changes or stays the same.
15 07 13 E.B.
Barrie is a Conservative city and this time they are paired with Innisfil, which has solidly voted Tory for many years. One of the CPC safe seats in Ontario. If they lose this one, they are in big trouble.
15 06 14 Mike W
The momentum for this riding is clearly on the side of the NDP. Myrna Clark came in 2nd to Brown last time and is running again against a new Cons. candidate who can claim experience.
15 05 28 David T
If you combined the York Simcoe and Barrie Provincial results with the new Barrie Innisfil Riding, the Provincial Liberals would still have won that seat. While we all know Provincial and Federal politics are slightly different (even in Ontario), given that Patrick Brown is not the candidate, and the slate of candidates of both the Tories and Liberals are pretty weak, I think this riding has a chance of going with whatever the national trend is.
15 05 01 Docere
Even if Patrick Brown wins the Ontario PC leadership, this should be a Conservative hold. Maybe Brown's uncle, former MPP Joe Tascona, will try to make a political comeback.
15 03 28 monkey
Very safe Tory riding, even in the last provincial election they probably would have held this so cannot see them losing here.
15 03 24 JC
This is a very safe Tory seat irregardless of what happens with Patrick Brown's PC Leadership campaign.

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