Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:51:28

Constituency Profile


Alexander, Chris

Brown, Stephanie

Hill, Jeff

Holland, Mark

Kesic, Bob

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 530.12%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (168/168 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Chris Alexander


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15 10 13 Marco Ricci
CTV's Robert Fife reported tonight that Conservative sources expect Chris Alexander to 'go down to defeat':
15 09 21 DarkFlare
Just want to make a report from the streets of Ajax. I noticed that a bunch of the Chris Alexander lawn signs on Lake Driveway have disappeared immediately after the Syrian Refugee Crisis really started to dominate the news.
Perhaps some tory voters have changed their mind? I've seen an increase in Mark Holland lawn signs as well.
15 09 18 Jeff S
Forum had the Liberals up 46-35. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1377/chris-alexander-in-second/ But I still think this one's TCTC.
15 09 19 HarvJ
Forum poll for Ajax done September 17th; Liberal 46, Conservative 35, NDP 17. The Mainstreet poll the day before was badly flawed as has been extensively discussed on Reddit. The Liberal difference off of Ontario numbers was 11.7% positive in 2006, 11.8% in 2008 and +13.8% in 2011. Presuming that Ontario is currently tied (Lib/Con) a deviation of 11% is a reasonable assumption - thus in line with the Forum poll. The race isn't close
15 09 18 Torontonian
Libs now seem to have this one well in hand, ahead 46% to 355 in a riding-specific poll.
15 09 18 Monkey Cheese
The poll from Mainstreet should be taken with a grain of salt. They frequently overestimate Conservative support. They were the same pollster that had the Conservatives at 38% when this campaign began and PostMedia, Mainsteet's backers, are also well known for their Conservative bias. Same goes for citing the Sun.
Meanwhile, a new poll from Forum has Holland back in first and Alexander in second. I think this one is closer to what I've been hearing from people living in the riding - that they are embarrassed by Alexander and are going back to their Liberal roots. Since the NDP has no chance here, if their goal is to defeat Alexander, some will vote Liberal.
LPC: 46%, CPC: 35%, NDP: 17%, GPC: 2%
Essentially a reversal of the 2011 results.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to a new Mainstreet riding poll posted by David Akin today, this riding is still close between the Liberals & Conservatives:
Mainstreet | AJAX Decided voters | #CPC 39% | #LPC 37% | #NDP 20% | #GPC 4% | IVR n=690 Sep 14
15 09 16 R.O.
There was a poll released this week from Mainstreet polling for riding of Ajax, they polled 690 residents which is large for a single riding poll. The numbers among decided voters was 39 % Chris Alexander Conservative , 37% Mark Holland Liberal and 20% Stephanie Brown ndp . it appears this riding is a very close race.
15 09 16 Bob
A phone poll of 690 residents taken on Sept. 14 shows the Conservatives are slightly leading with 33% of the vote compared to 31% for the Liberals.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
It was embarrassing to watch Alexander on P&P. While the numbers have been suggesting for sometime that Holland had the edge here, I think the recent antics will help secure a Liberal victory. I also helps that Liberal support in Ontario is solidifying now.
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
Liberals will reclaim this riding, Chris Alexander came in with so much promise but ended up flopping as a MP.
15 09 03 Monkey Cheese
Chris Alexander made himself look like a fool on Power and Politics by blaming the media for ignoring the Syrian refugee crisis even though it has been discussed multiple times on Power and Politics before. Chris Alexander has now suspended his campaign to focus on the crisis. I don't believe this gambit will pay off as it's too little too late for him to suddenly grow a conscience during the middle of an election campaign. I can't see how this will make him look good. This latest bout of incompetence from Chris Alexander has all but assured Mark Holland's victory.
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
An incident happened today between Chris Alexander and Rosemary Barton, the host of CBC's Power & Politics.
Barton asked Alexander to respond to the refugee crisis in Syria and Alexander ended up accusing Barton & the P&P program of not doing enough to cover the issue. Barton called Alexander out by saying that it has been covered multiple times & told him he should admit he didn't want to answer the question.
The exchange became a huge story on social media and multiple sites like Buzz Feed & Huff Po have posted the video clip under headings like 'Rosemary Barton destroys Chris Alexander'.
It's hard to know what the exact impact of this story will be for Chris Alexander. But it probably doesn't make him look very good and could increase the chances of his defeat.
15 08 22 A.S.
In 2011, Chris Alexander was a majority-cementing emblem of how even the Cons could play that hitherto-Liberal-dominated 'worldly star candidate' game--a full 180 from the Jesusland bozo who ran against Holland in 2006--but now he's arguably an emblem of how 'worldliness' can mutate into an overly defensive partisan hash under the thumb of HarperCon-ism. Not that Ajaxxers much notice or care--which actually leads to the opposite problem: Alexander also lacks Jim Flaherty's hometown-boy warm-and-fuzziness for locals to engage to. Also, in this high-stakes rematch, Ajax's suburban supergrowth has favoured the Liberals for ages; so, this is a *real* case where CPC hopes that (a) the Justin's-just-not-up-to-the-job pitch sticks, and (b) sans a vacationing throwaway candidate a la 2011, the NDP's robust enough to split the 'left vote'. (Yeah, it used to be that Liberals whined about too-strong NDP campaigns keeping seats like Oshawa Conservative; would the NDP opt to complain likewise about Mark Holland-type star/strategic Liberals? Who knows.)
15 08 19 R.O.
This is still one of the most intense and hard fought races in the GTA so its surprising to me it be called with weeks of campaigning left. Both leaders Harper and Trudeau have visited the riding so far a clear sign it's a close race. I have also yet to see any opinion polls that indicate Holland has any sort of lead here at least none have been released publicly. Chris Alexander is a higher profile conservative mp and candidate than ones Holland beat in previous elections in this area. I don't deny this riding has liberal history and an area they could potentially have success but this is a much different race than others in this riding in years past. there is bound to be up's and downs for each party in this campaign and this riding will be one that likely isn't decided till very end.
15 08 18 Dave Lang
You can tell Harper is nervous about Holland making a comeback for a few reasons.
1) He plastered Westney road with a great big blue sign saying 'Sidewalk improvements, part of Canada's economic action plan' (because apparently our economy is determined by how good the sidewalks are in Ajax)
2) He actually visited! Harper showed up at a campaign rally at a golf course in North Ajax.
3) 'Turf Mark Holland' is back and Chris Alexander himself showed up at a gun enthusiasts club to meet with those behind it.
This are clear signs that the party's internal polling isn't going well. I agree with Marco that there needs to be unification on the left for Mark Holland and I think with his popular name he will be able to pick up the bulk of 'anti-harper' supporters in addition to his supporters and liberal supporters.
But the big thing he needs is those swingy centerist voters. A lot of Ajax residents to reside close to the center of the political spectrum and he needs to differentiate himself as the best candidate to represent Ajax.
All the signs seem to be there on the ground that it will flip back liberal.
PS: The sidewalk thing might just be annoying residents like me. The sidewalks were perfectly fine, now it's a pain to drive through there every morning. Not to mention the insanity on Brock Road in Pickering! The Harper giveaway there slows down traffic on the 401 because no one can turn north. Thanks Harper for making my commute even longer!
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
This riding, like many others this year, really depends on how the non-Conservative voters choose to organize their votes.
If you look at the 2011 figures on the left side of this page, it shows that about 44% voted CPC, about 38% voted LPC & 15% voted NDP. If half of that NDP vote had gone to LPC, Holland would have beaten Alexander. The NDP candidate in 2011 was actually on vacation for part of the election, but nevertheless still received a chunk of the vote.
The question in 2015 is, will NDP voters go back to Holland to beat Alexander, or will they be more motivated to try for something different with the NDP? It's hard to say. One of the lessons LPC has learned the heard way in recent elections is that it can't necessarily expect NDP voters to vote Liberal even if the Liberal may be the best option to beat the Conservatives in a riding such as this. The Liberals have to earn those votes back over the course of the campaign, and so we will have to see how the parties & their leaders fare until October.
Now, if some of the CPC voters from last time go to LPC, then Holland could win this back even if he loses some votes to the NDP. Time will tell.
15 08 11 Docere
Chris Alexander, in spite of an impressive resume, has hardly distinguished himself in Ottawa. Either way, this was not a Vaughan-type CPC blowout in 2011, but a pretty close race. So even with the Liberals looking weak, this is a likely pickup in the 905 region. Even though the NDP actually won the riding that contained Ajax in 1990 provincially, I don't see them taking off in Ajax. Mark Holland is quite popular among local progressives and should be able to get the anti-Harper vote to coalesce around him. Leaning Liberal, but leaving it TCTC for now.
15 07 26 Monkey Cheese
Chris Alexander likable? Don't make me laugh. He's giving Pierre Poilivere a run for his money for one of the biggest partisans in Parliament. I'm not a big fan of Holland either, but he's more experienced and personable than Alexander. The Liberals have been polling higher in Durham and Ontario since the last election. Ajax was a riding they narrowly lost last time. This time it should be a Liberal gain.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
TTC. Alexander is likeable, a minister, and has done a lot of work with the large immigrant community here. However, Holland has been working hard here and is an experienced campaigner. This was also close last time. It's gonna be tight!
15 07 08 seasaw
The right time to predict this riding is probably days before the election and even then one might not be able to predict accurately. First there's the incumbent Chris Alexander, though partisan but a hard working type and and probably one of the best ministers we've had, possibly a future leader. Then there's Holland, also hard working and partisan but one of the most self-centred, arrogant politicians with leadership aspirations of his own. He didn't take the loss too kindly and has been working ever since to get the riding back. Who will win ? Remains to be seen.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Alexander is an accomplished MP but has been in some questionable scraps. Speaking of scraps, the Liberals are running the scrappy Holland, the former MP for this riding. Holland will likely return to Parliament considering the decrease of the CPC and the unlikelihood of the NDP gaining traction in the 905.
15 07 03 Dave J Lang
I was born and raised in Ajax and have seen the way the area votes. I'm predicting a Liberal win but after a very tight race with the Tories.
Ajax (no matter what it's been paired with) has typically been a Conservative VS Liberal battleground with all other parties trending too low to be in contention. I foresee this being the case again despite the sudden NDP rise across the country (sorry ms. brown, i just don't see it) Quebec may be able to flip partisanship on a dime, but this area is pretty entrenched in it's red/blue war.
Most of the usual Mark Holland Supporters simply did not vote in the last election, stating it would make a bigger statement than voting and Holland was going to win anyway. They were frustrated with disappointing liberal leaders and didn't like the alternatives. (not to mention annoyed by constant harassing robocalls from all sides) Others sided with Alexander after promises by Harper that if he won, he'd be a cabinet minister (which did come true)
Flash forward 4 years and the two are facing off again as intense as before. But in such a close race there are a few factors that could swing it either way.
The Trudeau Effect: Hit or Miss on this one. You either love it or hate it. The Trudeau name is going to be something Holland has to think about. It has split opinions throughout Ajax but a lot of people agree with harper's attack ads that 'he's simply not ready'. I would suggest Holland push his own name and reputation to the people more rather than take the Trudeau gamble.
The Harper Effect: Not quite as volatile as the Trudeau effect, but still equally as splitting. For some, Harper seems stable and trustworthy, others find him shifty and constantly bowing to the USA. Overall I think most Ajaxians are fed up with the Harper Agenda and have seen serious damage to Canada's image on the world stage.
The Senate Scandal: This open wound has been pushed away by the conservatives to hopefully be forgotten at the ballot box. Alexander will have a very hard time when this gets dragged up during debates (and it will)
Orange Crush Returns?: Recently the NDP have been skyrocketing the closer we get to the election. Although I doubt it will mean a NDP win in this riding, but it could seriously change the battle. Typically, an NDP surge would cost the Liberals more than the Tories.
Ajax History: This one will be huge in this riding because you have two stars who have both been elected here, going at it. Holland in office 7 years across 3 elections, and Alexander in office for 4 years across 1 election. Both prominent in their respective caucuses. I personally, see Holland's longer history and experience in campaigning in Ajax winning out as he was very vocal in parliament and in media circles. (constantly on power and politics) Meanwhile Alexander has been referred to as 'stiff', 'robotic' or 'Harper's Yes Man'.
No matter what, I foresee this being a tight and very interesting race to watch
15 06 04 R.O.
Its true this area of Durham region was slow to elect conservatives and stayed liberal for a number of years . however Chris Alexander is a strong mp for Ajax and high profile cabinet minister in Ottawa. The 2 by elections in durham also stayed conservative so I feel this area of the 905 is still a place that favours the tories, however this area will remain competitive each election.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
The numbers are indeed favouring the Liberals in Ajax. With stronger polling numbers in Ontario combined with the off-putting hyperpartisan Chris Alexander, the Liberals should have no problems taking Ajax back.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
The Conservatives only won Ajax as a result of the Liberal meltdown and Ignatieff. Chris Alexander is one of the most partisan MPs and always looks like he's about to have an angry, rant-filled meltdown. He doesn't seem very personable. With the Liberals polling much higher in Ontario then they were back in 2011, this is a riding they'll take back.
15 04 09 Dr. Bear
Carleton Student, would you please provide supporting evidence for your assertion. Without any supporting evidence, your statement has no value.
It seems the consensus amongst everyone else is that it'll be a battle to watch. If compelled to make a choice, I would say that Holland takes it back. The polling numbers seem to be in his favor and while Alexander enjoyed star candidate status in 2011, he has been rather underwhelming as a minister. Not saying he did a bad job, I'm saying he seemed rather drone-like. Regardless, this is a race to watch.
15 04 05 Fairview Resident
Had Alexander proved to be a real diplomat, he could have had a decent chance of holding on, but this race is now just a battle of fierce partisans where the Liberals have the edge. A narrow gain for a star diplomat candidate benefiting from a 20-point margin over the opponent's party is unlikely to be a hold for a disappointingly, embarrassingly undiplomatic minister in a rematch when the parties are tied.
15 03 28 monkey
Should be an interesting race as you have two big guns from the Liberals and Tories so no doubt both sides will pour a lot of resources into this one.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Will be a bit closer, but the minister will be re-elected over Mark Holland
15 03 24 ML
One of the best races in the GTA. Holland was a very effective, albeit ultra-partisan, opposition member who got under the skin of the Conservatives and their base. Toppling Holland was seen as a huge win in 2011 by the CPC. Expect a similarly bitter - and close - race between the Libs and Conservatives in October.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
A clear Liberal vs. Conservative race. Chris Alexander, a star candidate who many thought could turn around Conservative foreign policy from its ideological rigidity, has not achieved much, and may simply have failed.
He would be an easy return if not for the general rise in Liberal and drop in NDP numbers, and most importantly, facing Mark Holland, a potential Liberal leader.
Holland was voted by the Hill Times as the most effective Opposition MP in Question Period and the 'Best Up-And-Comer' four times from 2006?2008. Conservative Minister Stockwell Day has referred to Holland as 'Perry Mason on Steroids' and 'the Caped Crusader' during their sometimes heated exchanges in the Public Safety and National Security meetings. CTV called Holland 'a one-man rat pack on a mission to change the hill'. Macleans has labelled Holland ? 'Part Attack Dog ? Part King Maker' for his going after Conservatives and for his role in the 2006 leadership campaign.
This is a guy who can hold Chris Alexander to his lack of a record. Thus this race is tough to call.

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