Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivičre-du-Loup


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:07:44
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Breton, Chantal

Gagné, Bien Gras

Gagnon, Louis

Généreux, Bernard

Lapointe, François

Normand, Marie-Josée


Population/populations
(2011 census)

97261


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1727636.34%
1728536.36%
27435.77%
955020.09%
6911.45%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivičre-du-Loup
   (255/255 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
François Lapointe
17276
17285
2743
9550
691



 


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15 10 19 pipson52
69.159.128.192
Here is how it looks on the ground and not from the air. The Conservatives have spent a whack of money (ads every 20 minutes, including the disgusting niqab ad) to promote an unpopular candidate. If Généreux wins, it will be proof of how to buy a riding. François Lapointe has worked extremely hard as MP, but in an enormous riding (10,000 sq km) it is impossible to everywhere at once, so some people suggest he was not 'présent.' Nothing could be further from the truth. The Bloc has a good candidate in Louis Gagnon, but everyone knows the party is old news and they will waste their vote in supporting him. The Liberal, Marie-Josée Normand, is well-known for her starring roles in Quebec dramas, is the daughter of a former MP and minister and has a genuine presence,without the artifice of old style pols. She also does not get involved in the endless fights between Lapointe and Généreux. All that said, this is a barometer riding like few others: always consistent with Quebec trends since Laurier was in short pants. PC, Creditiste, Liberal, PC, Bloc, NDP in their turn over the last 50 years and exact numbers on the two referendums. The national and Quebec trends will swing their way, and with the red wave coming on, I predict a liberal win here.
15 10 17 Tes
147.194.105.107
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 13 N.B
66.110.149.161
La lutte s'annonce encore très serrée entre les néo-démocrates et les conservateurs. Toutefois, avec le bilan négatif des conservateurs, le vote stratégique pourrait très bien favorisée le député sortant François Lapointe qui est lui aussi maintenant un candidat populaire dans la région.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
With current polling numbers, I concur with the CPC prediction for this riding.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
24.156.205.18
With Tory support in the region at current levels, I am confident that Bernard Genereux will be rejoning the Tory caucus in Ottawa.
15 10 03 JFBreton
184.161.172.124
La remontée des conservateurs et leur force dans la grande région de Québec (rive-nord et rive-sud), la popularité de Bernard Généreux, de même que le transfert de vote entre le NPD et le Bloc laissent présager un gain conservateur ici.
15 09 29 R.O.
24.146.23.226
With ndp numbers down in Quebec in new polls this riding is more competitive . Conservatives have a strong candidate here as Bernard Gerereux has been a mayor and mp for this riding previously. Harper also came to this riding after the french debate to campaign and made a significant tax announcement. The ndp won here in 2011 but historically it had been a bloc Quebecois riding as Paul Crete had been mp for a long time . and not sure what kind of factor bloc is here this election .
Avec les numéros de néo-démocrate au Québec dans de nouveaux bureaux de scrutin de cette circonscription est plus compétitif . Les conservateurs ont un solide candidat Gerereux ici comme Bernard a été un maire et député de cette circonscription auparavant. Harper est aussi venu à cette circonscription après le débat français de campagne et a fait une annonce importante des impôts. Le NPD a remporté ici en 2011 mais, historiquement, il a été un bloc Québécois circonscription comme Paul Crète avait été mp pour un long moment . Et vous ne savez pas quel genre de facteur bloc est ici cette élection .
15 09 17 #ABC51
24.212.221.36
While the Conservative candidate is locally popular, their provincial campaign is faltering, as is the Bloc's.
The Dippers will continue squeezing the vote and should be able to hold ridings like this one.
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
204.187.16.156
With the BQ currently sitting in the polls at half of what they got in 2011, and the NDP looking very pretty in Quebec, I do not see the CPC retaking this seat. Things could change in the weeks to come, but for now I say it stays orange.
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
GÉNÉREUX was looking good a few months ago for his chances of winning the seat back, but with the Conservative numbers falling in Québec to 13% (below the 16% they got in 2011), it doesn't look like they have the numbers to win this riding back now.
15 09 05 A.S.
99.233.125.239
If the Cons are flirting with 3rd place nationally, I can see the Bernie G. option going from 'he wuz robbed' to 'what's the point'? (More so than, say, Borys W. in Etobicoke Centre relative to the Liberals)
15 09 03 Tony
71.7.250.207
This was a heartbreaker for the CPC in 2011 as Genereux lost by 9 votes, this time I think he'll get the seat back.
15 08 28 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This was such a close riding last time and former mp Bernard Gerereux is running again. He won the by-election in 2009 and was a popular candidate for cpc here. Although ndp candidate Francois Lapointe has now been mp of the riding since 2011. So you have 2 candidates who have both represented riding recently. ndp has an early lead in Quebec but still very early in election and a lot could change by October , I'd say too close to call
C'était une telle étroite circonscription la dernière fois et ancien député Bernard Gerereux tourne à nouveau. Il remporte une élection partielle en 2009 et a été un candidat populaire pour le CPC ici. Bien que NPD le candidat François Lapointe a maintenant été député de la circonscription depuis 2011. Vous avez donc 2 candidats qui ont tous deux représenté circonscription récemment. NPD a une longueur d'avance au Québec mais encore au tout début de l'élection et beaucoup pourraient changer en octobre , je dirais trop proche pour appeler
15 07 09 Mr_vince
167.92.126.10
9 votes difference eh?
Unfortunately for the NDP, Block has gain a little momentum which means less for NPD and more BQ and I don't think that people going for Bloc will go for a strategic vote to stop gthe conservatives. TCTc gave a 36% CPC - 33% NDP and I wouldn't be surprise if the conservatives gets more than what it is indicate.
plus, Bernard Généreux was quite appreciate in his riding. It really his TCTC but I'll bet with a CPC win
15 04 07 Observer
24.156.205.18
Une lutte a deux entre les Conservateurs et Neo-Democrates. Avec les sondages actuels, Je donnerai l'avantage aux Conservateurs, et leur candidate bien connu Bernard Genereux.
Si il parait que les Conservateurs vont encore former le gouvernment, Avantage a M. genereux, car les residents prefereront quelqu'un qui sera probablement au conseil des ministres.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
This was the closest race in 2011, Genereux is going to have the full Tory team behind him hear and even with the slight increase in polling for the tories and the slight decrease for the NDP the Tories will win, unless the left-wing gets together and votes for Pilon to block the tories.
15 03 23 Brian A
174.114.116.132
9 votes separated the NDP and CPC in 2011. In federal politics, that's the kind of margin that really encourages parties to ensure that EVERY VOTE counts. This is a riding that is a prime target for the CPC, as it's in the Eastern Townships, small-town, not far from the New Brunswick border and, if you recall, this was Mario Dumont's territory back in the ADQ days. However, the Conservatives are doing pretty poorly in Quebec these days, so I don't see them unseating incumbents in this province - even ones that won by the skin of their teeth. The Liberals are too weak in this part of the province to pose much threat, so that leaves the Bloc...which seems these days like a patient on life support whose family is too stubborn to pull the plug. This is a Conservative/NDP race, and unless Harper picks up more steam in Quebec, this riding should stay NDP this year by a more secure margin.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
66.49.210.99
I mistakenly called the Nipissing race the closest in 2011, whereas this riding was the closest. Now we're going to have a rematch between Lapointe of the NDP and Genereux of the CPC. While a slight rise in CPC support in Quebec should be enough to tip this into the blue column, I think there will be enough BQ supporters who will vote NDP to prevent any CPC advantage. This shaping up to be an interesting race. TCTC.



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