Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:35:07

Constituency Profile


Asselin, Jean-Pierre

Beaudoin-Julien, Andrée-Anne

Blanchette, Denis

Jetchick, Stefan

Lightbound, Joël

Pageau, Caroline

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1430.24%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (230/230 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Denis Blanchette


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15 10 19 Marco Ricci
Yes, the Liberals also have a shot at winning here depending on how the vote breaks down. The Liberals did win here in 2000, although that was the year Jéan Chrétien got 44% of the vote in Québec. The Trudeau Liberals aren't at that level in Québec yet, but they theoretically could win here if there is a split between the other parties.
15 10 17 JC
Flip a coin, the three major parties will probably walk away with this one, I say go with the one having momentum and that's the liberals.
15 10 17 Tes
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 16 Spx
If those Liberal numbers from the polls hold up on election day they have to pick up at least one seat in the city and my first guess would be Louis-Hébert. You can never be sure what happens on election day, but then last time around nobody believed the poll numbers for the NDP either. So I'll predict a Liberal gain here.
15 10 15 Teddy Boragina
The latest math would suggest the Liberals are now on top here.
Either way, this will be a close race, with 4 parties liable to take over 20% of the vote each.
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
I agree that this riding is probably now leaning Conservative.
1. Leger said yesterday in their new Quebec poll that the Conservatives are now leading in Quebec City.
2. A Maclean's article this week by Martin Patriquin reports that even internal NDP polling puts them only in a tie here with the Conservatives.
We'll have to see if anything changes in the final week before calling it officially, but it may be that the Conservatives have now regained the edge here.
15 10 10 Oliver May
The question here is can the Liberals or Bloc or Conservatives take this seat.
I have to say that I still think the NDP will hold this seat and Québec is far more vulnerable to being taken by the Bloc. I have seen no radical improvement of the Cons in this part of town. They only way they can win is via a perfect split, likewise for the Bloc, thus the NDP or Liberals are logically more likely to take the seat depending on momentum.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. The Tory support in the region has been steadily growing at NDP expense that this riding which changes MPs reguklary will fall into the Tory column this time.
15 10 03 JFBreton
Before the last french debate on TVA, Jean-Marc Léger from Léger Marketing presented this poll for Quebec City area: Conservatives 48%, NDP 20%, Bloc 17%, Liberal 14%, Green 2%. I would not be surprised to see the Conservatives win in Louis-Hébert.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... it's quite possible for no party to break 30%, given how all 4 have a decent shot here, and there are still additional candidates.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Leger, EKOS, Forum and Nanos are showing CPC spike in Quebec City region (and QC overall). CPC will squeak a win here.
15 09 21 A.S.
This would have been the most provincial-history-congruent 'Lawrence Cannon seat', but that's not happening now--OTOH if Justin Trudeau has any Quebec bounce left in him (post-French-debate, maybe?), this'd be the likeliest seat in the CapNat region to swing the Liberal (or at least Liberal-second-place) way: Sainte-Foy/Sillery as a St. Paul's equivalent, *very* vaguely speaking. As it stands, the NDP's advantage in Louis-Hebert is a *three*-way opposition split--but even so, contrary to what Oliver May says I'd put Quebec ahead of either this or Beauport-Limoilou when it comes to NDP safety.
15 08 30 Oliver May
Odd to see this as TCTC since I can't see an obvious challenger to the NDP. That said, ignore the 8,000+ majority, this is a naturally split riding with a reasonably sizeable sovereigntist base. Unless the Bloc vote is going to go to another party this is probably the safest NDP seat after Limoilou-Beauport.
15 08 28 R.O.
This is one riding you don't want to be an incumbent in, no other riding in Canada has gone thru mp's like this one has. A new mp has been elected in every election since 1993 which is hard to believe but true. And bloc. Liberals, conservatives and ndp all won riding at least once in that time. So current mp Denis Blanchette has somewhat of an advantage as ndp polling well in Quebec but history would indicate a new mp for this riding. Unless ndp is able to break that streak.
C'est une circonscription que vous ne voulez pas être un titulaire dans, aucune autre circonscription au Canada a grimpé thru mp's comme c'est arrivé. Une nouvelle MP a été élu dans chaque élection depuis 1993 qui est difficile à croire mais vrai. Et le bloc. Les libéraux, les conservateurs et le NPD ont gagné circonscription au moins une fois au cours de cette période. Pour que le courant mp Denis Blanchette a plutôt un avantage en tant que néo-démocrates et d'interrogation dans le Québec, mais l'histoire indiquerait un nouveau député de cette circonscription. À moins que le NPD est en mesure de briser que streak.
15 08 25 JFBreton
Les plus récents sondages placent le NPD à plus de 40% au Québec, loin devant ses adversaires. Le plus récent CROP place même le NPD à 51% chez les francophones. Le Bloc oscille entre 15 et 20%. Hormis Deltell dans Louis-Saint-Laurent, je ne vois pas d'autres gains conservateurs prévisibles dans la région.
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 08 05 2015
NDP again most likely, this was Conservative for one term but with their 3rd place finish behind the Bloc last time, and more than 10000 away from the NDP I doubt they can make up the ground even if the NDP are heading into a 30-35% result.
15 04 18 Observer
Ancien member du conseil des Ministres, Lawrence Cannon a annoncé qu'il se présentera pour lèinvestiture a Louis Hébert. Avec la croissance d'appui pour les Conservateurs au region du Capitale Nationale, il pourrait bien réussir
15 03 28 JC
Louis Hebert is a notorious riding in Quebec and has been represented by 8 different people since 1988 and no MP has won re-election since Suzanne Duplessis of the PC. This is a three way race between the Liberals-Tories and NDP.
15 03 25 JFBreton
Trop tôt pour prédire un gagnant ici. Denis Blanchette (NPD) est bien présent, mais les conservateurs mènent dans la région selon les sondages. Et les libéraux ont l'habitude de désigner un bon candidat dans Louis-Hébert. Il faut attendre d'en savoir plus avant de désigner un vainqueur.

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