Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:29:34

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Gabriel

Dean, Bradford

Girard, Eric

Scarpaleggia, Francis

Young, Ryan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (219/221 polls, 99.67% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Francis Scarpaleggia

   (2/221 polls, 0.33% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Isabelle Morin


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15 09 18 Nick M.
As an outsider & neglecting all local issues, I have Simple method for Quebec. The Conservatives will bleed 40% of their vote to Liberals in Quebec, while the Bloc will bleed 40% of their vote to NDP. Thus this one will go Liberal.
Liberals gonna win by getting CPC votes from last election.
15 09 03 Observer
IN Lac St Louis, All Scarpeleggia has to do is show up, and he will win. if he could survive the orange wave of 2011, he will hold the seat again.
This is another riding I have lived in (while it was Lachine-Lac St Louis)and Liberal roots run deep here. And there is no great bloc of Jewish voters here, unlike Pierefonds Dollard, Mont-Royal and Laval-les-Iles.
A.S.'s comment referring to pro-Israel Orthodox Jews as 'ilk' was ill-advised.
With Trudeau instead of Iggy, Scarpeleggia should not have to break a sweat to hold.
15 09 02 Tony
The Liberals had their worst election in 27 yrs. here in 2011 and where running vs. a star candidate for the CPC. None of that happens here and the Liberals win this seat once again.
15 08 31 A.S.
Actually, whatever Jewish demo LSL has isn't really of the same ultra-orthodox pro-Israel ilk that marks the Hampstead-to-Dollard axis; the Tory strength over time has had more to do with generic affluence--and in 2011, more to do with Larry Smith. Indeed, one might as well counter-argue that what Larry Smith really did was, through his 'star candidacy' providing an alternate anti-Liberal option, prevent LSL from being yet another Orange Crush pickup. (And poetically speaking, why not? It was Bob Layton's seat, after all.)
15 08 22 Marco Ricci
Dr. Bear, I agree that it's unlikely the Conservatives will do well here again unless their Québec numbers rise or unless they spend the resources here that they did for Larry Smith. Earlier this year when the Conservatives got a short-term bump in the Québec polls while the terrorism legislation was popular there was the potential for gains. But with CPC falling to 13% in this week's CROP poll, the potential for CPC gains is dropping, even in Québec City where they now trail the NDP.
Liberal support has also fallen in Québec, but the Liberals are 5 or 6 points above where they were in 2011, so ridings like this are probably still secure for now. However, I don't think you can totally rule out the possibility of another NDP surge here if the NDP is still at 47% in Québec by the time of October.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
TCTC? PLEASE! In 2011 the CPC had a big-name star candidate and were on the road to a majority. What happened here? The CPC came THIRD. Just because the CPC have 'a good candidate' does not mean he has any real chance of winning. That will depend on the national campaign and how it's playing out in Anglophone Quebec (at the moment, it isn't going anywhere fast). Had they had a star candidate, I'd be willing to entertain the notion that the CPC would do better than third (let alone possible win). As for the Jewish vote, that source is maxed out. They voted CPC in 2011; if that didn't win the riding then, it won't win it this time (same story for Mount Royal and Pierrefonds-Dollard). Of course, there are going to be those who say the NDP and Liberals are going to split the vote and allow the CPC come up the middle. That vote split happened already in 2011 and the CPC couldn't capitalize on it. Amongst Anglo-Quebecers the sound bite this election is going to be how the NDP are pandering to the separatists. Mulcair has chosen to sacrifice any chances he has in a handful of Montreal area seats (including this one) to win big throughout Francophone-Quebec. Probably a wise strategy if he wants to form a government, but will ensure the NDP don't gain in places like this. Watch for NDP numbers to drop and the Liberals numbers to rise.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Eric Girard is a good candidate. Also a decent Jewish population here. CPC might surpise. TCTC.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Liberal edge for now based on historical trends, incumbency and current numbers in Québec.
However, in 2011, what was once one of the safest Liberal seats in Québec during the Chrétien/Martin years ended up only going Liberal by a 4% margin. Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia had a close call here, getting hit from 2 sides - from the strong CPC campaign by Senator Larry Smith, and from the NDP Layton Wave.
While Liberal numbers are likely to come back up in Montréal under Justin Trudeau, the last election showed that MP's can't take their seats for granted any more. Could be potentially close again if the NDP & Conservative campaigns gain traction.
15 03 28 monkey
If the Liberals could this back in 2011, I see no reason why they won't even if they do worse than expected in Quebec. Also lets remember the Tories had a strong star candidate Larry Smith and he probably picked up some Blue Liberal votes who will likely return to the Liberals so even if the NDP rebounds, it probably won't be enough.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Avec l'arrivée de Trudeau à la tête des Libéraux, ces châteaux-forts libéraux du West Island n'ont rien à craindre. Une bonne part du vote néo-démocrate des dernières élections reviendra au bercail. Victoire libérale.

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