Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:29:42

Constituency Profile


Bourgeois, Michel

Eid, Soheil

Landreville, Danielle

Morais, Robert D.

Morin, Mathieu

Ste-Marie, Gabriel

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (195/195 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Francine Raynault


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15 10 16 Dr. Bear
As I have explained for other ridings, i acknowledge that the NDP are down to about 75% of what they got in 2011 in Quebec. I have taken this into account in my analysis and we end up with a close race between the BQ and the NDP (with the BQ slightly ahead). What I have also taken into my analysis is that the BQ had a popular MP in Pierre Paquette, whom I was certain would keep his seat in 2011. That being the case, BQ numbers are somewhat inflated in 2011. This would suggest that the BQ, who are now polling around the same level as they did on e-day 2011 (and dropping), would get less than the 33% they scored in this riding. Bottom line TCTC.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
A response to Dr. Bear in this, and a few other ridings.
Yes, the Bloc and Tories are at 2011 levels, but the NDP is not. In fact, the NDP is closer to 30% in the polls, whereas they took closer to 40% of the vote in Quebec last time. This means - to simplify, we could assume the CPC and BQ vote will be the same, but, the NDP will lose 1 of every 4 voters. What happens if you apply that to this riding?
Here in Joliette that would bring the NDP down from 46.92% to 35.19%, well within striking distance of the Bloc, at 33.01%. This is especially true when you consider I had used 40% as the 'last time' NDP figure, when, in fact, 43% is the right number.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
While I agree that this is one of the best bets for the BQ, we need to keep in mind that the bloc is only polling around what they got on e-day in 2011. We also need to remember that this had a very popular bloc MP. That would have bolstered bloc support last time and it might be harder to unseat the NDP than meets the eye.
15 10 09 observer
Joliette is one of the most nationalist ridings in the province, and I believe that this will be among the first to fall back into Bloc hands on election night.
15 09 20 A.S.
Federally speaking, Joliette's always had a hard-edged character--it returned Quebec's only class-of-1980 PC, after all (and with Soheil Eid, how far've we fallen from Roch LaSalle--or, maybe not). Presently, it *could have been* (and maybe in its way, still is) a top-tier Bloc takeback target--unfortunately, ex-MP Pierre Paquette squelched that certainty by deciding away from a leadership bid; and then he went on to make a fool of himself vs Francois Legault provincially in 2014. Maybe the fact that Francine Raynault chose not to run again could re-boost any such BQ hopes, though I'm not counting on it.
15 09 20 Nick M.
NDP doing strong in Quebec, BQ is down in the polls from last election. Plus the NDP won this riding by a fair margin in the last election. Don't see how NDP can lose this riding. If anyone has insight why this may be TCTC, please say your 2 cents. Either wise lock this is in for the NDP, please.
15 08 29 Mr. Dave
With NDP support estimated to be between 47% and 51% in Quebec (depending on which Poll results you look at), predominantly francophone ridings like this one will be staying NDP for at least one more election.
NDP hold!
15 08 26 Monkey Cheese
Soheil Eid, the Conservative candidate, is also facing controversy over offensive content on social media. He compared Mulcair to the infamous Nazi propaganda minister, Joesph Goebbels. I can't imagine this sitting well with people, especially with the Conservatives desperate for the Jewish vote. The fact that he couldn't even have the decency to apologize personally, he got a spokesperson to do it for him, speaks volumes.
That being said, the NDP should be able to win this one. The 'Duceppe Bump' has faded and the NDP are surging in Quebec according to the latest polls. The NDP won by a fair margin last time and this time I expect their lead to increase.
Soheil Eid, le candidat conservateur, est également confronté à la controverse sur le contenu offensant sur les médias sociaux. Il a comparé Mulcair au ministre nazi de la propagande infâme, Joesph Goebels. Je ne peux pas imaginer que cette assis bien avec les gens, en particulier avec les conservateurs désespérés pour le vote juif. Le fait qu'il ne pouvait même pas avoir la décence de s'excuser personnellement, il a obtenu un porte-parole de le faire pour lui, en dit long.
Cela étant dit, le NPD devrait être en mesure de gagner ce match. Le 'Duceppe Bump' a disparu et le NPD sont flambée au Québec selon les derniers sondages. Le NPD a gagné par une marge équitable dernière fois et cette fois je pense leur avance à augmenter.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
In the 2011 election-prediction-go-round, while I was certain that a BQ collapse was imminent(though not to the extent that occurred!), I was adamant that Joliette would stay Bloc. Personal popularity of Pierre Paquette, I said, would hold the seat for the BQ. I was obviously wrong. Now that the NDP is the favorite for the soft nationalist crowd, I expect this surprise NDP win to stay with them...unless the BQ start making headway once again...

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